With past trends in German election years.....the German Green Party (at least since 2000) has been able to get around 8-to-10 percent of the national vote.
In the past three years....polling data would suggest that probably around one-third of SPD voters have vacated their platform and gone to the Green Party. Current polling? Around 16-percent. At some point in mid-2019, they were actually up to around 26-percent.
Presently, the Greens would tell you that they expect to be easily out-pacing the SPD Party, and make a serious challenge at the CDU folks.
But to reach that point, the question of the Chancellor candidate has to be settled. I noticed today that N-TV brought up this discussion in a short piece.
There are three basic points you can get out of the N-TV piece.
1. There won't be a decision made by the Party over the Chancellor candidate until the Easter period.
2. The two chair-people of the party are Habeck and Baerbock (yes, it's not a one-boss situation). Both are openly discussed as the likely people to get the 'nod'.
3. In a normal setting, the party would have a conference, both would get a chance to speak....then a party-only vote would occur. Both Habeck and Baerbock are suggesting that they (the two of them) would have a talk, and only one would emerge in the position going forward.
How this would reflect? They kinda figure that they will be the partner to the CDU coalition, and that the non-Chancellor candidate will be given a key-minister position (probably Finance Minister or Foreign Minister). The actual Green Chancellor candidate would then get the role of vice-Chancellor only.
Agreeable to this selection process within the party? Well....NO. A number of party folks would prefer to have a conference, some speeches made, and then vote among themselves.
The better speaker? I tend to say Baerbock.....Habeck is a bit 'wooden'. In this scenario.....Habeck wouldn't win, and would be the guy with Foreign Ministry tag.
Does this all matter? On the insider track....some folks suggest that the FDP Party this time around, might be able to clear 8 to 9 percent. Presently, it's a dismal 6 percent. If the FDP could get near 9 percent, and the CDU do some marvelous numbers (41 percent).....then the partner to the coalition is the FDP (not the SPD or Greens).
Where the Green Party will be in September? A lot depends on the economy, jobs, and Covid-19 management. If things were 'rock-solid'....then the Greens could stick with their normal script....but 2021 appears to be a rocky-year, and they have to engage on topics that they'd normally avoid.
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