Four topics, for the 26 September election:
1. Candidates likely in the mix for Chancellor? For the CDU, it's three folks up to replace Merkel: Bavaria's Premier-President Soder, Health Minister Spahn, and Friedrich Merz.
Spahn has not stepped up, but there's little doubt that he's got a fair amount of party support. Soder? He's made at least a hundred public appearances since summer of 2020....and is highly regarded. Merz has the general support of the party mechanism, but Merkel and the pro-Merkel crowd of the party are negative on his style.
For the SPD, it's Scholz, period. Currently the Finance Minister, and has filled the role of mayor of Hamburg for several years. He's NOT charismatic or pumped-up (low-intensity is his theme).
For the Greens, it's Habeck for the most part and Annalena Baerbock (the co-leader of the Party) coming up in the past month. Habeck has a wooden-personality and lacks on charismatic charm.
2. Topics? Economic recovery after the Covid situation. Jobs lost, unemployment, serious holes in the budget and tax collection. Public TV support will come up (Merz wants to do some carving on the public TV empire). The Fridays-for-the-Future crowd will chat a lot about climate change as well.
3. Affect of social media? One might expect a fair amount of hype over social media, and some attempt to quiet-down the chatter
4. Finally, the coalition after the election? Can the CDU form a coalition with the Greens? Would Merz even be willing to open the situation with them? This is the big unknown at this point.
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