Friday, January 8, 2021

Germany and Covid-19: 8 Jan 2021

 1. It's a short piece this morning that I saw on N-TV news, and looked up the story.  They say (the journalists) that various retired folks in old-folks-homes in Germany, after getting the Covid vaccination....are getting Covid-19 now (not just the symptoms from the shot, but the full blown deal).

What's said now....from the folks who made the vaccination series....is that you need four to five weeks to reach some stage of immunity.  So one can look at this and simply suggest that their immunity level won't hit max-level for another two to three weeks, and it's just tough luck on getting the virus.

2.  New poll by ARD (public TV news) which says that 71-percent of Germans say that they will or likely get the Covid-19 vaccination.

A second poll question asked....is this going too slow (the vaccinations)?  Roughly 50-percent of the public said 'yes'.

3.  This new ban rule....the 15-km circle....has triggered a fair amount of discussion.

The rule generally means (at least in the initial stage) to be from your front door.  Well....a newer understanding is that it's from your 'city of residence'.  This generally means if you live in eastern Berlin.....it's from the zip code area, and probably gives you an additional five to ten kilometers.  Pushing this to the extreme?  I wouldn't recommend it....but based on commentary by the police....they've got enough on their plate and really don't want to harass people about where they live and how far they traveled today.

4.  All total, the German government says that it's ordered 130-plus million doses of the vaccine from BionTech and Moderna.  First quarter production?  Well.....just two million.  It's supposed to ramp up, with a new production center, and the suggestion of Russian production center in the future.  In their mind, it's more than enough....at least on paper.  

5.  This speech by the boss of Moderna?  Well...he said yesterday that the vaccination from his product will give you immunity for 'several years'.....but the question is...does data prove this?  No.

My humble guess is that somewhere by spring of 2022 (a year away)....some project will have been completed and give folks a better idea.  I'll even go and predict that they will simply say that for a year....it's great, and along about the second year....it's a 20-to-25 percent loss in effect.  So the discussion will be....should you get re-vaccinated every two years or three years?

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