That Putin Rubles Chatter

 Yesterday, Putin had a chat with the Chancellor....saying Euros could still be used in accordance with the natural gas contract.

The wording today?  Russia says you (as a country) must have an account with the GAZPROM Bank, and via it....you can pay in Euro.

The GAZPROM Bank would then take the Euro (in theory) and convert it into Rubles.

Odds of this being a permanent thing?  I'd say for three months, it'll run this way, until Putin decides to modify the rules again.  

What will GAZPROM do with the Euro?  One could ask that question, but it's likely to be siphoned off to the Oligarch folks, and sent to some private bank outside of the country.  

That Leipzig Incident

 Back around seven months ago, I essayed a piece or two on a Leipzig incident involving Gil Ofarim (the German pop singer) at a premium hotel.  The incident?  Gil walks in....wants service to get checked in.....says the clerk gazed at the Jewish Star he was wearing, then gave him a 'warning' that it was unsafe to wear this in public around Leipzig.  

Gil then got all emotional....sat in front of the hotel, and did some social media 'chat' to tell how he was all disturbed over this hotel treatment, and how unsafe things were for a Jew in Germany.

So, in the week following that.....lot of Germans dumped upon the hotel, the city of Leipzig and got all weepy-eyed on supporting poor Gil.

Well....the hotel came up with video of the desk, and most of what Gil suggested....simply didn't happen.  A reported turned into the police?  That got questioned a good bit.

Gil not realizing the video recording was going on?  That's my impression.  If you go to any premium hotel in Germany today.....there's probably twenty different cameras set up at the entry, around the front-desk, and in the bar area.  

Today, I noticed that the prosecutor of Leipzig finally said enough.....he's pressing false statement situation against Gil.

All of this faked-up?  Yeah, and it looks like a German-like version of the Jussie Smollett incident.  Most likely to come out of this?  Probably a suggestion for rehab, and some hefty fine for the statement (my humble guess).  

Number of Ukrainians in Germany

 By noon today (Thursday), the German police say (in terms of registrations), there are presently 288,500 Ukrainians officially in the country.

Unofficially?  Well....this gets talked about.  Some folks think there could be around 100,000 who are staying with friends or relatives, who haven't registered with the police or the Interior Ministry.

The regulation says you can stay up to ninety days....without a registration or just on a tourist-type visa.

Where this leads to by the end of the year?  If you watch the chat-forum shows and the politicians have any real indication.....it's over 500,000 expected, and could easily reach 1-million this year.

Housing issues?  You have different resolutions going on.  Some Germans are openly inviting Ukrainians to stay in their home (house-mate situation).  Some hotels are offering up room presently.....with pay-back via the state government possible.  If you counted up rural housing, there's probably enough empty homes/apartments in the rural areas to easily house 1-million.  

Chatter on German Speed Limits?

 What one can say.....most all Germans thought the speed limit 'talk' was ended as the coalition government concluded it's initial stage.  But now, with energy problems on the horizon....the chatter has started up again.

What it centers on?  Four components:

1.  Temp stage of 100 kilometers per hour on autobahns.

2.  Temp stage of 80 kilometers per hour on state roads.

3.  Temp stage of 30 kilometers per hour on all urban streets.

4.  Temp stage one Sunday per month for a 'no-drive' situation.

All of this....in some fashion, would lead to less fuel being consumed (in the minds of the environmentalists).

Odds of this happening?  Two months ago....zero chance.  Presently?  I'd say it's a fifty-percent chance on the autobahn temp stance, and the one Sunday a month no-drive situation.  

How long would 'temp' be interpreted?  My humble guess is ninety days, and a possible renewal at the end of that.  

A lot of grumbling to occur?  Yes, with probably half the nation fairly bitter over the idea.  The new Kaabo Wolf King E-scooter able to get up to 95 kilometers per hour?  I would suggest a lot of the E-scooter crowd will laugh over the speed limits in urbanized areas.

This trend might be around for three years, until you get close to the national 2025 election period, and the SPD reverts back to secure votes.  

Next Crisis For Russia?

 Kinda comical, but RIA (Russian news group) said this morning that Russia is now worried about "Islamic State" (IS) and potential plans to destabilize Central Asia/Russia. 

Oddly enough, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is the guy bringing this up.....at a conference going on in China today.

Where this will lead onto?

Well....instead of worrying about NAZIs....you would now focus on radical Muslims, and China would tell you that they share that focus.

Yeah, it's a pretty lousy movie-script, but if you wanted to move people out of the NAZI-theater because of 'bad ratings'.....this is the next best 'movie' to get your attention.  

This New Putin 'Theory'

 Over the past two weeks, I've seen a number of things which you could piece together to suggest a theory.  Problems?  It's hard to say it's factual, or a hoax, or just odd pieces of a story which normally wouldn't be told in public.

So the story starts at the end of 1991....as the Soviet Union falls apart, and Russia emerges.  

The general problem....the Kremlin is trying to find a 'vehicle' to structure Russia into a commercial-but-controlled state of operations....meaning that Moscow runs things but capitalism and commerce are allowed to flourish.  At this point, the Oligarch 'crew' emerges as the solution to give Moscow everything it needs to retain power....produce capital....sell or barter in the world market, and be seen as a legit world power.  

This young guy from the KGB (Putin) resigns, and takes up an odd job....deputy chief of Presidential property management.  He's basically handling the transfer of old Soviet property books.....to new Russia property books.  To this day....no one can really explain what Putin did for those nine months....other than make connections....hang out....and chat with insiders.

By April of 1997, Putin gets this odd promotion....he's now the deputy chief of staff for the President, and moves up to the chief of Presidential property management.  

In roughly two years, Putin will be stepped up to be one of the three top deputy ministers under Yeltsin.  

On the last day of 1999.....Yeltsin is 'retired-out' and Putin becomes the acting President of Russia. 

What you can say from that day on....Putin is feared by virtually everyone within the Oligarch community, the military, and the Kremlin itself. 

So the theory goes this way....as Covid became a problem, Putin closed off travels and social engagements.  The only people who got access to him....was the inner circle.

The  'inner circle'?  Well....they needed to keep Putin focused on problems....so he didn't go investigating them for corruption or greed, or incompetence.  

The old chatter before this period?  Well....you could walk up and say there's too much sex or lust on Russian TV.  Or, you could suggest that such-and-such part of the Moscow International Airport was falling apart.  Or you could say that retirees in Russia need a 2.5-percent rate increase on their pension.

The theory suggests that into 2020/2021....folks started to suggest NAZIs existed in the Ukraine, or that the Ukraine needed to be brought into the Russian 'empire' or that the west was disrespecting Russia.  

Putin (in this theory) took the suggestions and ran with them.  He asked the FSB (former KGB) to write up an invasion plan.  In their mind, this was just Putin asking....not really suggesting he'd go off and invade the Ukraine.

As weeks passed, Putin got more and more into this wild idea that things were being orchestrated by NAZIs.  Paranoia?  Well.....yeah.

Anybody in the Oligarch community, Kremlin, FSB, or military....could have stopped this crap, but they were in fear of Putin.

So the war started, and it didn't conclude 72 hours later.....or 7 days later....or even 30 days later.

Generals telling bogus loss numbers to Putin now....in fear of him?  The theory suggests that the whole mechanism reached a level about two weeks ago, where Putin was told nuke-war could occur.  So he (and the inner circle) left for some secret bunker site in Siberia (Surgut).  It was a major GAZPROM (natural gas company) site from the past thirty years.  The general comment is that they are in the bunker and under some impression of massive world chaos going on.

Again, the FSB, Kremlin elite, the Oligarch community or military could have stepped up and laid out the real landscape, but in fear of Putin discovering the massive bogus story made-up.....they just doubled-up on the 'bet'.

This week, some story started up that various Russian soldiers in the Ukraine are fed-up and intentionally 'fixing' their vehicles to fail.....to avoid convoy-duty or assault orders.  Lack of confidence, lack of trust, and disbelief in the mission?  All of these feed into their mindset.....Putin's lack of reality has probably crept down into the enlisted ranks as well.

What can one say about the theory?  IF true....it's the wildest story of the past hundred years.  On my BS-meter?  I'd give it a '5'.  

It's basically admitting that Putin moved up a couple of jobs without any real success story to 'cement' his resume (yeah, kinda like that George Bush story....he did run the Texas Rangers baseball organization for a season or two).

But if you took this serious, it'd mean that Putin is kinda like that Chauncy Gardener character from the movie 'Being There'.  He looked right for the part....had some KGB time....and had a ice-cold stare which he could project at various times.

So here we are....a number of Kremlin elite...sitting in some Surgut top secret bunker....sipping vodka around the clock, and hoping to avoid daily meetings with Putin because sooner or later....he'll figure out the whole thing is a one-star scripted 'bad' movie, and he's the star.  

Q-and-A: 31 Mar 2022

 1.  Russia to still accept payment from Germany in Euro/Dollars?

Well....things shifted around yesterday, and what is said....is that for the period of this contract....payment will continue in Euro or dollars.  The Russians (Putin himself) apparently came around to the reality that if you turned off the natural gas....there weren't customers lined up to replace Germany (at least willing to do the Rubles gimmick like Russia wanted).

2.  Official German government rules for Covid quarantine reduced to five days?

Yes.  Announced yesterday.  Pretty shocking, when compared to the summer 2020 rules.

3. German inflation numbers now at 7.3-percent?

Yes, and most blame energy prices going up here in the first quarter of 2022.

4.  Light snow predicted for Friday/Saturday in central Germany?

Shocking a lot of people.  Past six weeks have been mild weather.  Temp is supposed to be near freezing in this 48-hour period....making the hobby garden crowd nervous.  Lot of people have already taken their winter tires off, and shifted to summer tires.

5.  Is there some new 'fear' called German angst?

Well...lately, this has been discussed.  The idea is that someone (namely Putin or the Kremlin) is 'after' them (the Germans), and some internal fear mechanism has been turned on.  

Part of this....revolves around Germans watching an over-abundance of nightly news and thinking nuke-war is coming, or that the Russians will turn off the natural gas flow, or that Putin is some 'Satan-like' evil.  All of this leads to anxiety attacks.

Widespread?  I would argue that it's probably one out of twenty German adults, and maybe around younger juveniles....maybe one out of forty (kids overdosing on war video).

If you go back a year....there was this 'fear' business going on with Covid, and with the environmental business.  In some ways, I would suggest German society motivates itself from one fear to another.

What Should You Teach Kids?

 I noticed off N-TV (commercial German news) an interesting study that had been accomplished on German schools.

So there's this feeling that the German education system is not 'tooled' for the new culture/society approaching.  In simple terms, the people who run the schools believe that more 'life-skill's need to be introduced.

Life-skills?  Well, this gets into health/nutrition, IT, maturity, financial/economic 'tools', and everyday common sense situations.

They kinda point out that the type of teachers required for this....aren't in existence today.  You'd have to introduce a new thought process, and teach some teachers the new dynamics.

The curious part of this 'idea' is that if you watch the public 'sub-networks' (HR, RBB, SWR, etc).....you get daily lectures on all of these topics.  I sat last night and watched the weekly HR show 'MEX'....which spends 45 minutes each week dumping health, diet, IT security, financial and common sense issues.  In some ways, I think if you packaged the show (forcing kids to watch it) and assigned a dozen tasks over a school year....you'd accomplish most of what they suggest here.  

Would the kids (age 13, 14, 15) appreciate this?  No....it's dull information and most would not see the logic to know that 99-percent of fast-food is bad for you.  

I think this will end up as a political discussion item....dumped around for the next four years.  

E-Car Chatter

 MDR (regional public TV network) went out and did a poll over Germans from the eastern part of the country (states of Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt and Saxony)....asking folks how eager they are to get an E-car.

Result?  Only one in ten see themselves in an E-car at any point in the future.

Why?  Generally, it led to three answers: short-range, limited charging stations, and the cost factor.

It's an interesting conversation because eastern Germans tend to see things differently than western Germans.  

The idea that this E-car craze is approaching in the next ten years, and a lot of political folks think this is the BIG trend to occur?  Well....there's another reality to this discussion.

The 9-Euro Monthly Bus/Bahn Ticket

 Based on chatter today, the 9-Euro monthly bus and local train/subway ticket (strictly for your town/city 'zone') will start on 1 May.  You will be able to buy it via a machine or the local bus office.

Length?  The monthly ticket is good for all of May, then renewed in June and July....each time for 9 Euro.

Strictly for your zone?  Yep.  

Good deal?  Well....I would say that if you wanted to get out and see things in the local area for summer....yes.

Germany And The Natural Gas Path

 This morning, Minister of Economics Habeck (Green Party) announced the early 'warning level' of the plan.  

If you follow the Russian chatter....this week, GAZPROM (the supplier of Russian natural gas into Germany) was directed by Putin to get the message out....you pay in Rubles or you get the gas turned off.

Putin's belief (sponsored by his Kremlin insider folks)?  They will all accept this Rubles idea and pay....weakening their message of support.  So far, the Germans have said 'NO'....the contract stipulates dollars or Euro as payment.  

Kremlin insiders guessing wrong?  I would make the assessment that they keep talking among themselves, and convincing each other that they can force this issue.

So IF this holds true....the GAZPROM folks will hit the off-button shortly (I anticipate this within the next week).  Who will buy the GAZPROM product then?  Well....the Foreign Minister is in China and I think he wants them to sign up to the lucky 'winner' of Russian natural gas....obviously buying in Rubles.

Will China agree to this part of the deal?  I think they will respond with a suggestion that they would buy.....but either with Chinese currency, or dollars.  That will bring up a month-long discussion in Russia, and they will go back to urge the Rubles once again to everyone.

At this point, the end of April....I think the economic collapse of Russia will be on the mind of a number of folks.  

Where are the Oligarch folks, the Kremlin insiders and Putin currently?  There's no real evidence any of them are in Moscow.  Some Oligarch folks appear to have left the country and are simply maintaining a low profile in odd countries (like Turkey).

If natural gas production and movement comes to a standstill....what then?

I'm not really convinced this is a four-star idea to allow to develop.

Collapse of Russia?  This morning, I sat and watched a podcast where this topic came up.  The Russian (not a Ukrainian, German, Brit or American) went into a long discussion about the necessity of Putin or the government always 'winning'.  So this military operation.....with losses in manpower and tanks....is anything but 'winning'.

My humble view is that no one within the military structure is openly talking about losses of any type to Putin or the Kremlin-elite.  The idea that you might have 40,000 Russian soldiers who are dead, prisoners, wounded, lost in the woods, deserted or just plain in some unknown status?  It's comical to think you have such a broad category existing and that you just say in blunt terms.....the 40,000 don't exist anymore.  

But adding to this scenario.....a thousand men a day appear to be layered into this mess as either dead, prisoners, wounded, lost in the woods, deserted or just plain in some unknown status.  Another month of this?  Another 30,000?

Putin can't even award medals without the numbers being faked-up.

As for Germany's gas problem?  I see four things occurring shortly:

1.  German industry that required natural gas for production being told to put workers on furlough (paid) for three months.

2.  Speed limits on autobahns to be restricted to 130 kph (maybe even 100 kph).

3.  Sunday travel by car to be frowned upon.

4.  Sudden interest in solar panels that can be hooked to conventional heating sources in homes.  

It's a rough period coming up.  

The 'Cards' You Can't See

 There are a number of things over the war that you eventually start to wonder about:

1.  War dead, missing, captured for Russia.

About ten days into the conflict, I sat and watched a YouTube video of a Russian re-supply convoy group (probably 3 x APCs, a number of trucks, several fuel tankers, and a couple of jeeps).  

The convoy had been 'destroyed' several hours prior.  What remained was the vehicles, several charred bodies (probably from the missile hitting the fuel tankers or APCs), and around a dozen-odd  Russians dead.

So I sat and wondered....from the forty-odd guys who escaped and wandered away....probably led by some Major....what happened to them?

Did they run into another firefight and lose more?  Did the group split up and half got captured by the Ukrainians?  Did they respect the Major or possibly disrespect him enough to shoot him?  How did they explain things back at the front-lines?  

2.  Each time a Russian convoy was attacked....how does the commander explain losses to the General?  If you admit a loss of a quarter of all your vehicle assets destroyed in one single week....how does the general see that result?

3.  Guys who don't return from the mission....are they marked 'lost, captured, possibly deserted, probably-dead'?

4.  The reaction by front-line guys who've waited two days for 'fresh' food to arrive....only to discover that it's combat rations with a expiration date of August 2014.  Does the commander even bring this subject up to the general (the guy who probably sold the incoming combat rations six months ago).  

5.  Just how many fuel tankers remain from day one at this point?  Did the Ukraine destroy or take over 200 of the tankers?  Is fuel arriving in 55-gallon barrels onboard regular trucks?

6.  Where do deserted Russian soldiers go?  

7.  Is Putin literally living 24 hours a day....out of some bunker, like some news sites have suggested?  

8.  Surgut, Russia (middle of nowhere) often gets hyped-up now.....like some 'mother-of-all-bunker-cities'.  Why?

9.  Just how much paranoia now exists within the Kremlin circles?

The Real World

 If you picked up the WELT newspaper yesterday, there was an excellent piece written by Nicholas Doll, entitled: "Germany, At The Limit".

So he goes down the list....war, flood, refugees, Covid, economic spiral, environmental catastrophic events, etc.  He kinda suggests....in kind words, that the German governmental mechanism has hit it's operational barrier.

I'll be honest....up until this war period....I felt that Merkel-team was stumbling along and probably had been in a 'ditch' or two.  The Scholz-team arrived and probably had some hopes there in January that Covid would lessen and 2022 would end up as a decent year.  Sadly, they were wrong.

I think the article does highlight a lot of what the common working-class German is feeling.  There's just an over-abundance of hyped-up news, and you really need to know when to turn the TV off, and chill out.

You also probably need to get a frame of mind that the German government or the EU itself....is not a 'Jesus-like' situation where things can be remedied or repaired.  

It's a harsh reality of the world we live in.  

The War: 30 Mar 2022 (AM)

 1.  Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in China for talks.  No one says much over what kind of talks.  

2.  US State Department has given a pretty harsh warning for Americans remaining in Russia.....that they might be arrested for various reasons, and held.  

3.  Denmark says 800 of it's Army will re-deploy to the Baltic states shortly.

4.  Via a N-TV piece, after this NATO exercise ends in Norway.....there's a 200-man US Marine unit that will wrap up the exercise and then deploy over to Lithuania.  Additionally, a 'few' C-130 cargo planes will be positioned somewhere in Eastern Europe.

5.  Some chatter going on that Russia has pulled back troops around Kiev.  

6.  Some items have been removed from a German restaurant menu (mainly items you'd cook with 'fat', like fries).  Reason given.....increasing cost and scarce nature of various oils.  Trend started in Koln yesterday.  

Three General Questions That Ought To Be Asked Of The Ukraine-Russia Situation

 1.  Can a written 'end-the-hostilities' treaty be signed (especially by Putin)?

Basically, NO.

I would imagine that back on the 20th of February (when the conflict started)....there was a draft 'we-will-surrender' text document that the FSB had written and had been reviewed by Putin and his support-team (probably two months of review).

It's probably a two-pager, and says a dozen-odd things about the future of the Ukraine.  

So, after 30-odd days of military operations....that draft document doesn't get discussed much, and Putin sits with his Kremlin-buddies at night thinking over this problem.  They can't see anyone of a legit nature for the Putin team...signing some crappy 'end-the-hostilities' document.

In effect, they need a replacement for Zelenskyy (the current Ukraine President)....maybe some Moscow-puppet....who'd be willing to sign that original document which would make all of them feel better. 

2.  If you were ethnic Russian-Ukrainian in the Luhansk and Donetsk 'states', and looking at the prospect of being future Russian-Peoples Republics (each)....looking around at the massive amount of damage and destruction...just how positive would your outlook be?

I sat and watched video of the past week of the Luhansk area.  On a destruction scorecard....one to ten.....based on video, I'd give the Luhansk area a '8'.  There might be some rural farming areas with lesser damage, but the urbanized areas look like crap.

If I were a ethnic Russian....I'd look at the damage....the future, and then just laugh.  I'm not staying there.  I'm leaving for Russia, and asking for some type of 'help'.

Naturally, you'd arrive at some Russian social-help office and explain your situation.  The Russian folks would smile and say.....well.....there's no damage in Luhansk or Donetsk.

Your Russian friend who is temp-housing you?  They don't believe your story either.  The bakery shop lady? Nope.....she doesn't believe your story.  Some geeky kid at the park believes your story but he warns you....don't go around suggesting utter destruction in public.

3. Finally, the big question....if you were among the 150,000 troops originally assembled for what you thought was a nifty military exercise, then lead to the border crossing, and thirty war-days later....what's your view?

Ivan, your buddy of four months while on conscription?  He's dead...shot on day three and just left by some APC that ran out of fuel.  His body was simply left in the corner of a corn field.

Oleg, your other buddy.....for six weeks in the platoon before the border-crossing day....he was left pretty burned up while driving the fuel tanker that exploded.

Andrei, your crazy guy in the company....dead on day fourteen.  He was standing next to a tank that got hit by a anti-tank missile, and the flipping turret actually fell on top of him while he was laying on the ground.

Yegor, was the chunky kid in the platoon who disappeared on day sixteen.....having starved for three days and no resupply convoy was in sight for at least two more days.  Yegor might still be alive but the commander has noted him deserted at this point.

Ira, your marginal IQ buddy was captured on day twenty-one.  Rumor has it that he called his mama, and she was shocked that he was in the Ukraine....asking him if return home by her birthday in June.

Five years from now.....from the crowd of Russian enlisted that survived the 'conflict....they will gather in bars and be heavily into PTSD problems.  They blame their commanders, the Kremlin, and Putin for what was supposed to be a 3-day war.   

The medals?  All worthless at this point.  No one attends memorial parades....they mostly hang out at city parks and drink excessive amounts of vodka.

Society Trend

 For several years....I've kinda followed crime trends in Germany, and locally (in my town of Wiesbaden).....there's been this odd trend where assaults and knife crimes have been a growing problem.  

Last night (Monday)....around 7 PM....on a key avenue of Biebrich (suburb of town by the river)....a fight broke out.

Six guys....fists used for the start-up, but a knife entered the situation fairly quickly.  One guy had a significant knife wound, and three others had some patch-up work done at a local clinic.

What was the argument about?  No one says.  Cops asking for witnesses.  No one talks over nationalities, but I doubt this is a ethnic-German discussion.

Biebrich?  Well...this was a part of town that drew working-class Germans....at least through the 1970s/1980s.  If you looked over the population of this suburb in the past twenty years....it's probably one-quarter immigrants today.  To be fair....it's also been a magnet for drug activity (the Schlosspark isn't the same as it was 30 years ago).  

The War: 29 Mar 2022 (AM)

 1.  All members of the G7 group have said now 'NO' on paying for Russian natural gas in Rubles.  Putin's threat?  He'll halt gas flow.  He hasn't said it'll happen quickly, but the threat has been made.

So the country with the most on the table for 'pain'?  Germany (around 50-percent of all natural gas requirements were Russian).  

Could the Germans survive without the Russian natural gas?  

Well....here's the three key issues: (A) to receive the LNG ships, the German idea to build two ports (Hamburg region) won't be operational until 2024.  There are ports in the UK and France....so it's possible through those ports for US/Qatar to bring in LNG ships, and have the gas pushed on (for the time-being).  (B) The US and Norway have been said in some way that more natural gas sales are possible....but to bring it quickly up to Russia's numbers?  I'd say if Germany was lucky, they might meet half of this supply.  (C) Finally, Qater hasn't said a lot over the past two weeks.  Without the two ports being operational....I suspect Qatar's strategy is to get a couple additional LNG ships built and simply plan a long-haul situation for 2024.  

2.  Focus brought up this odd trend.  For all the German folks who were anti-Covid people (I hate to use the word Covid-deniers).....they now find their email chatter containing pro-Russia positions.  The chief support for anti-Covid being a Kremlin 'tool'?  Well...some folks are suggesting that.  

3.  US Navy EA-18G electronic warfare aircraft are being deployed from Washington state....to Spangdahlem AB.  Navy aircraft to a forward position?  Yes.  A bit odd, I will admit.  Six of them.

4.  If you did want to travel into Russia for tourism?  Well....there's new rules about 'unfriendly states', and if your country was unfriendly to Russia....you won't get a tourist visa.  Frankly, I can't see how anyone would want a week in Russia at this point....although the dollar to Ruble rate makes things interesting (around 1 dollar buys 95 Rubles).

5.  The reappearance of Defense Minister Shoigu after several weeks gone?  Well....some folks look at that one single video, and some things (particular people at the meeting) don't fit.  So the question is....was it a fake video from six months ago?

Shoigu's health?  I won't say he's bad off, but if you were looking for a candidate for a heart-attack....he's probably a '9' on a scale of one to ten.

6.  Can you get into trouble for spray-painting the Russian symbol 'Z'?  In some German states....'Z' is forbidden. If the cops catch you....it's more than the usual graffiti laws to affect your arrest.

7.  The Moscow stock market open but not in huge losses?  Initially, there was a one-third drop, and in the past couple of days....some 'recovery' for the MOAX.  Some people suggest that outside influences are going on and MOAX may be faked-up.  I would suggest that there's been such a loss....that some Russians holding stock....simply don't see a reason to dump their situation.  Yes, the 'ride-it-out' strategy might be in this situation currently.

Decline of the Linke Party?

 Around 2007, an East German political group (PDS) and a western German political group (WASG) combined to make what is the Linke Party today.  

Under this umbrella....Oskar Lafontain entered the picture (leaving the SPD Party) and helped to motivate people toward this new political group.

At this point, there were three political parties in Germany that were on the left-side of the political spectrum (SPD, Greens, and Linke).

What you can generally say is that the Linke found only one single German state where success was met (Thuringa, 2019 with 31-percent of the state vote).  There's four additional states (all in the east of Germany) where they've been able to get in the range of ten-percent.  Most all of the western states....they get in the range of 3-to-6 percent.

Lafontain came out a month ago saying he was retiring out of politics, and he sees the Linke Party as dying off.   He suggested voting SPD, if you wanted to make effective use of your vote.  

The problem here?

Both the Greens and SPD....have a pretty decent leftist agenda and generally accomplish it.  The Linke Party?  Their agenda tends to be as far extreme as you can imagine.....with this agenda never getting anywhere. 

The idea about free bus/rail tickets for working-class Germans (Linke idea)?  Well.....if you drill down into it....it's not free....someone is paying for it in the end.

Schlesweg-Holstein, North-Rhineland-Westphalia and Lower Saxony all have state elections later in 2022.  On general numbers expected Lafontaine's 'quit' speech?  The Linke folks weren't expected to get more than 5-percent in any of the three states.  

The quiet end of the Linke Party?  I would suggest that they will push on for 2022, and try to be of some significance.  The Thuringa state election in 2024?  That's probably the moment where they survive on, or admit defeat.  If they get less than 10-percent in their 'stronghold'.....they might start some mass re-organization.  

The decline here is that both the Greens and SPD sell a left-brand already....do you need a third left-brand in German politics?  

What 'Local' Means?

 If you walk into your local German grocery....it's now a big deal if they have vegetables, fruit and meat products that are 'local' products.  Maybe a decade, it wasn't a trend.....but almost all grocery operations have some type of sign up to identify 'local' stuff.

So for a long time....'local' wasn't defined, and groceries got away with their own definition.

Today, the German Federal Association of Consumer Goods made up a national rule.....if you put the sign to say this product is 'local'.....it has to be within 500 kilometers (roughly 155 miles).

How many Germans shop this way?  It's hard to say.  For those who hunt for out-of-season products?  Well....you kinda have to accept South African grapes, Croatian apples, and Costa Rican bananas.  

Explaining German Humor

 I generally divide German humor into six categories:

1.  Schadenfreude.  This is usually when the guy doing the joke/act....has a moment of fake meanness (glee would be appropriate here as well).  This is usually where an event has occurred, and civil behavior has been dumped.....things then happen which would not be the norm.  

If you can find any of the sketches of Loriot (probably over 10,000 of them)....he's a five-star artist at these.  One of his better ones is the trip to Italy with his new girlfriend, and how he drops her at some Italian coffee shop.

2.  The other nationalities gimmick.  Generally, any joke about Brits, Dutch, or Italians is acceptable.  In the past decade, Turk humor has edged into society.  

3.  Governmental bureaucracy jokes.   These used to be just fake situations where a city planning office was joked about.  In the past decade....several German comedians have gone to collect actual true stories....which are true, but also dampen trust with the public.  

4.  Man-jokes.  These are usually working class humor situations where guys all agree that five guys at some pub....drinking....will get into some kind of trouble.

5.  Political satire humor.  These usually touch on real-world events....where such-and-such politician or party....made a major screw-up, and the explanation is incorporated into a comical routine.  Politicians hate these, but the general public enjoy the punch-lines.

6.  Kabarett situations.  I would best describe these as a Jerry Seinfeld nightclub, where various comics come out and offer up routines.  Some dressed in special clothing....some toting a prop....some talking about intellectual things, and so on.  

Some American comedies failing to make it in Germany?  I might go and suggest that 50-percent of these shows fail.  But you could take a similar number of German comedy shows....attempt them with translations into the US and they would fail as well.

If you asked for the 'better' of German humorists/comedians?  My list would be:

Kaya Yanar (who does a lot of Turk-German humor)

Mario Barth (picks continually on government ineffectiveness or wasted money projects)

Bulent Ceylan (Tukr-German comedy)

Dieter Nuhr (intellectual comedy)

Hape Kerkeling (puts on clothing to fit the joke)

Kurt Kromer (does interesting interviews with real people)

Christoph Maria Herbst (could step into the Office show and play Michael Scott easily)

Gerd Dudenhoffer (if you can find 'Heinz Becker' shows on Youtube, you can settle back for 20 minutes of Saarland humor....the 'I'm going to buy a car' episode is the best one).  

Saarland Election Updates?

 Well....after the smoke had cleared from last night....this morning, here's the bitter shock for folks:

While the SPD and CDU stayed roughly the same on vote counts (SPD - 43 percent and CDU - 28 percent)......most all of the 'other' parties failed to get 5-percent or more (FDP, Greens, Linke Party).  

So the AfD with 5.7-percent will advance into the state assembly.  Yes, just three parties.....that's it.

The SPD having enough seats to cancel out a coalition?  Yes.  With 29 seats.....they own the government in the Saarland completely for the next five years.  The Greens, FDP and Linke folks completely out of state politics there, for five years?  Yes.

Using The NAZI BS On Putin

 Over the weekend, I had this idea.

Since this entire invasion in the Ukraine is about evil NAZIs who've infiltrated the government and the Russians are trying to 'liberate' the Ukraine....why couldn't someone start a BS-rumor that the NAZIs had a worldwide agenda, left the Ukraine, and had moved into various circles of Moscow?

You know....NAZIs infiltrating the Oligarch community, the Kremlin-circles, the Russian military, and Putin's FSB (former KGB) itself.

You'd hand the rumor to CNN, BBC, and various Russian news groups.

With the public already in mass-belief of Putin's story of the evil NAZIs in the Ukraine....it wouldn't take more than a week of talking over this in Russia to have most Russians believing that they've been infiltrated as well.

Empty Shelf Image

 

Not to be dramatic or anything, but this is an example of flour shortages in Germany.  

My local grocery.....with just a few possible options.  It's been that way for two weeks.  

Next State Election In Germany?

 After yesterday's results in the Saarland......the CDU Party is pretty focused on the NRW election coming up in mid-May (15th).

For a number of years, the CDU had a majority in the Saarland....then last year's national collapse for the party has changed the landscape.  

If you look at the two polls for March (for NRW)....it's neck and neck for the CDU and SPD situation.  A lot will depend on the Green Party (currently pulling 15 to 17 percent in the polls).  It's possible that the Greens might surge a bit, and take SPD-voters with them.

Saarland State Election?

 Wrapped up, and results:

SPD: whopping 43-percent.

CDU: 28-percent 

Linke Party: 2.6-percent

AfD: 5.7-percent

Greens: 5.2-percent

FDP: 5-percent.

So the Linke is out of the state assembly, and the FDP or Greens can partner with the SPD to lead the state government for next five years.

Negative deal for the CDU?  Yeah. 

How Big A Deal Is This Sunflower Oil Crisis In Germany?

 Well, it goes this way.....around 80-to-85 percent of all sunflower oil requirements in Germany....come from the Ukraine or Russia.  

If you walk into any grocery operation....the shelves are bare for sunflower oil, and you might occasionally see where 'Huns' has put out a 20-pack case, and it's gone within ten minutes.  Signs are up....one per customer.

Do Germans use much sunflower oil?  An average couple might use two to three bottles per year.  There are at least three or four alternates, so it's not that big of  deal.  

If you are a big salad freak (seven times a week)?  Well....that couple might be using a bottle a month.  

I don't see it as a big deal.

Now....the flour situation?  Bakers being interviewed on Germa TV suggest their products (at this pace) will double by the end of 2022, and that might become a big deal.  I stepped into a shelving area last week, where it was strictly the lower grade flour left, and the price had jumped 10-percent in six weeks.  

The War: 27 March 2022 (AM)

 1.  The word is that Russia will fully open its stock exchange in the upcoming week (Monday).....but it'll be for a four-hour period only.  Note, if you were into 'shorts'.....that won't be allowed.  So it's a tricky situation on buying and selling stock....which I'd expect the values to dip (unless they run some fake mechanism). 

2.  The German government says around 260,000 Ukrainian refugees are in the country....but they also suggest it might be way more.  Lot of folks simply come in and stay with friends or relatives....without registration.

3.  There's talk that German visa regulation will ease up on Russians who've gone into 'exile' (left Russia).  

4.  There's some indications that Germany will spend in the neighborhood of 2-billion Euro on a missile-defense system (from Israel).  Fear of Russian rockets intensifies.

Just An Odd Covid Factor In Germany

 It came out today, that Covid 'quickie' test results (the ones you can take in your village or town, which are free)....are reported statistically to the government...BUT they are NOT counted in the national day-to-day Covid infection numbers.

This came from N-TV.

So you could be in a town of 20,000 people, with three test centers in the town.  You could have 600 people from the town test daily.....of which this past week....200 of them tested positive.

But unless the 200 folks go to a doctor and get an official PCR test or given the 'slip' by the doctor....those 200 positive-test folks from the quickie-test experience....won't count.

The odds that the real Covid infection rate in Germany is twice the advertised rate by the government?  Well.....yeah, that's possible.

Maybe this has been going on for a year or so?  Well....yeah, that's also possible.

You can laugh about it, the local cost for that quick-test (being around 15 Euro), and the worthless nature of the test.  But it's reality.  

The Informer Story

 German N-TV news brought up this story in the AM today, and it's a questionable story (I'd give it on the BS-meter....a '5').

The story goes this way....the GUR (the military intelligence folks of the Ukraine) apparently have 'informers' in Russia.  There's this hint that it's ranging from the low levels of the Russian military....all the way to Kremlin-insiders.

The story might be marginally true....with just a dozen informers.  The story might be 50-50...meaning at least one Kremlin-insider is passing info.  The story might be entirely true.

The problem as the FSB/Kremlin folks look at the story?  If you thought for a minute it were true....you'd have to purge some folks (not just dozens, but probably hundreds or thousands).

You'd get into a reckless mindset and just select a hundred people at random, and drag them off to prison....just to set an example.

My humble belief is that there might be just a couple of folks in this situation....but Putin's crowd might be stupid enough to think it's well over a thousand.  Purging in the middle of a military operation?  Most people would agree....it just makes a bigger mess.  

The Loser Who Can't Walk Away

 Many years ago (1978), I lived in a Rhein Main barracks that featured a Saturday evening poker game.  I should state....there were probably three poker games going on in the building, but two were modest events where guys walked in with $20 in coins, a six-pack of beer or some Jack/Coke mix, and someone would offer up chips or corn curls.  

The third game was a pretty serious episode, and guys could be playing with $250 (this was half-a-month's pay for a E-1 in those days).  

We had this one single guy who had this fake belief in lucky hands.  This meant that he might reach a stage an hour into the game where he'd bluffed his way to some point....laid all of his remaining $250 on the table, and needed someone to shuffle another $25 to $50 to help him win.  It was always a 50-50 situation....where half the time....folks loaned him another $50 only to discover he had a crappy hand, and he walked out of the game broke (even worse....owing $50 out of the next month's paycheck).

I had watched this particular game about five times (I had zero knowledge on poker, being from a dry county in Alabama with no bad habits).  I had actually been one of the folks to loan the guy $20 at some stage....where he did win, and I got my money back.

The problem was....he just didn't know anything much beyond bluffing.  He didn't know when to fold or leave the game.  He'd bankrupt  himself....until the next paycheck arrived.

If you asked where this guy is today?  I'd say he's around 65 years old, deep into debt....living in some urbanized 'zone', and still bluffing his way through life.

Putin?  In the last two weeks, I've come to view Putin's history (prior to his President's job, and to include the glory years at the KGB) to be mostly a bluff era. He's just like the poker-bluff guy.

He did figure out how to reshuffle the cards, putting 'you cannot win' strategy against opponents, and developed a cannot-lose mentality.  

But he's standing there now like my former associate in the barracks....a loser who can't walk away.  In this case, he's bluffed himself, the folks around him, and the majority of Russians....for twenty-odd years.  He's even bluffed western leaders, the CNN crowd, hocus-pocus-intellectuals, and a thousand-odd writers of international diplomacy garbage into a bluff end-game.

Where this all leads onto?  More bluffs, and bluffs that start to look like 1-percent win-bluffs.  That's usually where people lose confidence in your 'game'.  

Odd March

 Last night, the Hessen weather guys announced something shocking.  

For March 2022 (it's not even over yet)....it's an all-time record for March sunshine hours.  In fact....for the past twelve months....this month (March) has had more sunshine than any of the previous 12 months.

The fact that we still have six days left, and the forecast for Saturday, Sunday and Monday is absolute sunshine?  It'll set some major record.

Rain?  There was a storm or two in early February, with maybe two days of light mist rain about then....but it's been this way for about six weeks.  There is a forecast of light rain for Tuesday night, and all-day Wednesday.  

If you were running a solar panel on your roof?  You'd produced all the power you needed for the house in this period. 

Energy Measures Likely To Occur In Germany

 Over the next month, I believe the German coalition government will come out with several measures...reflecting the cut-off natural gas (likely to occur in the ten days), etc:

1.  I think some temporary speed limit will be installed for a period of time (probably six months), with 100 kilometers per hour the max on autobahns, and 90 kilometers per hour on state roads. Germans will grumble, but as long as the regulation says a time-limit to this....it'll be accepted.  (Yeah, it has little to do with natural gas but there is some Russian oil that gets imported)

2.  I think some heat limit will be ordered down to individual homes/apartments of 18 C (64 F), if you heat via natural gas.  Some people will accept this but add an electrical heater, or go to a fireplace situation to 'add' heat.

3.  I think Sunday travel will be limited....mostly for car-travel, but will even include trains.

4.  I think stores and shops will be instructed to trim heat to 15 C (59 F).  It won't matter much in April or May....but come October/November....it'll be a big deal.

5.  I think fewer natural gas-run buses will be running.

Come mid-summer, this will all appear to be like some energy crisis, and 'fireside' chats by the Chancellor and his crew will be a big deal.  

The War: 26 Mar 2022 (AM)

 1.  The US came out and made a comment about the rockets being shot by the Russians.  So they've looked at imagery and I would assume limited areas....to which the Pentagon came to a failure-rate for Russian rockets fired.

60-percent.

Yes, six out of ten fired....did sail through the air, and hit something.....but nothing blew up.  

BS-factor?  I'd give it near '8'.  Unless you drew up a mile-by-mile area, and had some US munitions expert walk it....that's about the only way that I'd believe this number.  I will say this....if it were 60-percent, it's pretty crappy.  

2.  Russia says more than ten cases are being prepared for Russian citizens being accused of defamation of the Russian Army.  If convicted?  Well....you could go off for 15 years.  

I do suspect some media blitz will occur and these ten unlucky folks will go spend a minimum of ten years in prison.  But various people will look at the mess, and ask....why stay?

3.  News site say that Putin gave GAZPROM (the natural gas folks) a couple of days to write the new 'annex' for payment of natural gas.  Mandated Rubles?  Yeah.

If true, then around Tuesday/Wednesday.....GAZPROM will come to Germany and say all future payments must be in Rubles (immediately).  German reaction?  Pretty much across the whole EU....'no' is the standard answer on paying in Rubles.  They have a contract stipulation....Euro or dollars.

My humble guess is that GAZPROM will have a warning period (maybe 72 hours....maybe 7 days), and then the pump gets turned off.  

Things will get intense by next weekend (I suspect) in Germany.  X-plan will be put in place, with a 50-odd percent cut in natural gas to the country.  At this point (early April), I think there's marginal worry.  Come October?  It might be a harsh reality for Germans.  

As for Putin?  I think he's got people around him....convinced that the Germans are weak, and you can bend their will on this 'buy-Ruble' gimmick.  Again, an enclosed mentality is harming the decision landscape for Putin, and if Germany doesn't bend over.....your only natural gas partner is China.  I would imagine the Chinese are grinning because they will state the obvious....they will buy the natural gas, but only with a 10-percent minimum discount.  Yeah....screwing the Russians because of this stupid Ruble idea.

4.  Monday will be an important day for aviation in Europe.  There are around 700 planes leased to Russian airlines, which belong to European companies.  The 700 have been grounded, and the order by the leasing companies is to allow the planes to return to European airfields.  Russia has suggested....they won't comply.  

Anyone's guess on this, but if they hold them.....without parts, I don't see the 700 planes ever flying again.

5.  Comment made by German energy folks on Russian coal.  If necessary (Germans import about 45-percent of their coal needs from Russia)....they can hustle up alternate sources within a couple of months (note: the US exports around 18-percent of the German coal needs, and Australia  makes up the rest).

Germans haven't said 'who' will be the big supplier.  There are seven 'big' suppliers of coal in the world (Russia, Malaysia, the US, Australia, South Africa, Columbia and Canada).  

6.  Russian commander of the 49th Army dead.  Not a lot of details.

7.  Putin says.....'Nazi crackdown on Russian society'.  Yes, Nazis everywhere.

If you were a Russian and followed state news hour by hour (like people in the US follow CNN news)....then you likely believe 100k Nazis are working tirelessly in Russia to harm people.  

8.  I sat and watched a German public news piece last night....lot of hype about Germans (from kids to adults) disturbed and psychologically bothered by the continual war news.

If I assessed public TV (ARD/ZDF), I'd say in the past week....they've lessen war coverage by 25-percent.  Nearly all of the chat forums still continue to be about the energy crisis, the war, or empty grocery shelves in Germany.  

If you measure this....I'd say around two-percent of society are thinking war-stuff around the clock....chatting about it at work or via their friends.  

Thirty Days of War Assessment

Fourteen observations:

1.  After 30 days of military operations, you can safely say it's an unwinnable situation for Putin at this point.  His crew entered with the normal 'lets-fight-a-conventional-tank-war', and Ukraine went to the unconventional strategy.  

Putin's crew then planned roughly four entry points, with their 150,000 soldiers.  Logistically, this put the resupply efforts into turmoil when the quick-win idea failed.  As resupply convoys entered on the four fronts.....they came under attack.  It wasn't just the tanks/APCs escorting the convoy being destroyed....it was the trucks loaded with food/ammo/fuel that were destroyed as well.  

A 100,000 'Igors' stood there and were told by tomorrow....fresh food would arrive, with ammo for three more days of operations.  That convoy failed to make it, and the 100,000 'Igors' stood there....marginal food for 12 hours and being told to limit ammo.  Hope was lost at that point.  After you repeat that three times, your enthusiasm is gone as a foot-soldier.  

2.  There is no secondary fresh group of another 150,000 troops to come in at the 10-day or 20-day or 30-day point.  Some stories have surfaced that National Guard people (who typically don't go through regular yearly exercises or training) are being delivered to the war-zone, on top of the 150,000.  

3.  No cold-weather gear?  That story started last week via the Ukrainian news folks.  I give it a BS-factor of '5', but kinda wonder if Putin's generals would be that stupid.

4.  How many Russian generals have either been killed or fired?  Total going up over 15 presently?

5.  The anti-tank missiles and Stingers making a difference?  Yeah, and there's still 10,000 yet to be delivered from 'promises' made two weeks ago by western countries.

6.  Russians worried over price increases and empty shelves?  Word came up this morning that pharmacies in Russia are having a run on sleeping pills, antidepressants, and birth control items.  

7.  Just about every single European country has upped it's military budget now....so if Putin wanted a weaker Europe....he failed miserably on that front. 

8.  I don't see massive shutdowns for Russian airports for 2022, but I would forecast that most airports will see only 20-percent of the normal traffic they had for 2019 (before Covid struck).  Basically, you can probably still fly anywhere in Russia, Belarus, Cuba, and China.  

9.  There was a shock in Germany this week as people realized sunflower oil and flour are now in short supply because the stock came mostly from the Ukraine and Russia.  This morning, folks learned that the bulk of mustard seeds for German-made mustard.....also comes from the Ukraine (expect that shelf to be empty soon).

10.  With a diminished GDP....how Russia restocks it's tank/APC inventory is questionable after this military operation ends.  

11.  Most Russians will agree that propaganda takes place every single day, but the same folks will admit since 1917.....this has been a element of their life.  They simply got used to the fact that 50-percent of what they were told....was BS.

(I hate to admit this, but if you quizzed Americans, probably half of them would say that 50-percent of what they get via the news networks is BS as well).

12.  Alcoholism at play?  Well, several folks have suggested that the typical Russian soldier (even 19-year-old conscripts) are heavy consumers of vodka.  In this war period, a lot of them are on the wagon....craving a bottle of booze to meet what was their daily needs.

13.  Russians with college degrees are quietly assessing the 'stay-or-go' situation.  If the economy of Russia collapses.....why participate in it?  Slipping out...in the middle of the night and asking for asylum in Europe is now occurring.  

14.  Finally, if this goes on to June, and 100,000 Russian soldiers are either dead, severely wounded, or just quit the war....what does Putin have left to 'play'?  With the exception of the nuke ability....beyond that....Russia ranks as a equal to France (on a really good day....France alone, without NATO, probably could win a war.....finally).  

Using Putin-Logic

 The term 'war' cannot be uttered in Russia at this point in time.  The phrase to be used? 'Military operation'.

I sat and pondered upon this.  

Do you remember the Revolutionary Military Operation of 1776?

Do you remember the Spanish-American Military Operation?

Do you remember the Civil Military Operation?

Do you remember World Military Operation I?

Do you remember World Military Operation II?

Do you remember the Korean Military Operation?

Do you remember the Vietnam Military Operation?

Do you remember the Falklands Military Operation?

Do you remember Gulf Military Operation I and II?

Do you remember the Kosovo Military Operation?

It probably wouldn't take much for even normal people (beyond Russia) to get into this habit, and just label everything a military operation.  We could end all war....at least in terms of language use. 

What Is This German Energy Relief Package?

 Well....politicians have been hyped up the past couple of weeks (even before the war) over escalating prices for heat, gas, etc.

So the coalition government worked up this plan.  The five key components?

1.  Every family unit that works....would get a 300 Euro 'check' for energy escalations.  It'd be through your job and monthly pay.  

Now before you get excited.....it's taxable.  So if you do the math....in reality, you are only getting around 250 Euro.  

Also, retirees don't get the 300 Euro (you have to be working).  

2.  Got kids?  Each kid would entitle you to 100 Euro.....not taxable. It's an offset against the child 'geld' money that you already get.

3.  On welfare?  100 Euro per person in the family unit.  One-time deal only.

4.  Gas tax dumped?  The way this is worded....for a 90-day period.....30 cents of the gas tax would be carved off (discounted).  So the current price on E-10 fuel (yesterday, I saw the listing) is 2.12 Euro per liter.  Once the discount takes place....the same fuel would be 1.82 Euro a liter.

Negative about this?  It's only for 90 days, and you will emerge on 1 July....to find a sudden return to normal.  

For my wife, the employed one in the house.....she typically burns through 2.5 tanks of fuel each month.  It's about 100 liters of fuel per month....so for  three months, it's about 90 Euro of savings in her pocket.

The diesel discount? MUCH less, at 14 Euro cents per liter.  Diesel car owners will grumble about being screwed by the government on this deal.

5.  Finally, this stupid 9-Euro train ticket deal.  Starting 1 April, you can go up to a bus/train ticket machine and buy a monthly 'travel-in-your-zone-all-day' ticket for 9 Euro....for the whole month.  Yes, for 90 days....you can put down a total of 27 Euro and save a ton of money.

It is a very creative ticket, and I admit for value....fantastic.

But here's the rub on this....it's only for your 'zone'.  I live in the outer boundary of Wiesbaden (the 6500 zone).  So I could buy this ticket and travel throughout the Wiesbaden/Mainz area, but that's it. I couldn't use the ticket for Frankfurt trips or out to Worms.  

The idea is to get people into the habit of using the train/bus system, and in July....you'd go and pay the standard ticket (87 Euro per adult, for the monthly pass).  The retiree pass?  70 Euro.  The lesser-day-pass (for 9 AM or later travel) is 70 Euro.  

The deal is.....after 90 days of use, you might think it's wonderful to travel via the bus/train to work.

I brought this up to my wife (employed to a company in Mainz).....she said it's a NO-GO.  It'd take two bus transfers.....a train ride over the river, and a four-minute bus ride to get her to the front-door.  She did admit it might be nice to wander into town two nights a week....to experience the metro-feeling (having a wine at a cafe, or a beer at some local pub).  

So all this chatter over spending of money and 'gifts'.....how much is allocated by the German government for the whole package?  Around 14-billion Euro (figure around 17-billion dollars).  

Will this make people happy?  Here's the final 'rub'.....for a normal German familly, by the time you figure electrical costs going up, and the total heating bill for this past winter, with gas prices increases for the past hundred days....your family has spent near 1,500 Euro more.  So NO, this 'gift' really doesn't resolve the hole that most family units have fallen into.  Nor does it resolve anything for the remainder of 2022.  

I'll even say this....for each hundred people that jump into this 9-Euro a month local train/bus pass deal....I suspect only ten percent will settle upon it as a permanent thing.  A lot of people will test the scheme, but for a majority of Germans....local bus/train options don't fix their 'get-to-work' chaos.  

The War: 24 Mar 2022 (PM)

 1.  Via N-TV news, Chancellor Scholz said 'NO'....Germany would not pay the natural gas/oil bills to Russia in Rubles.  The contract stipulates Euro or dollars.  This might turn interesting if Russia turns the gas off now.

2.  Via N-TV news, Poland also said 'NO'....refusing to pay Russia for natural gas in Rubles.  Only dollars or Euro were stipulated in their contract as well.

3.  Mid-afternoon, NATO authorized pulling chem/biological/nuke warfare gear out for units.  

4..  German Chief Prosecutor said that Russian war criminals could be brought and housed in Germany.....if charges are put into place.  

5.  US has said today that it will temporarily take in 100k Ukrainians into the country.  

Tank Incident

 I sat and read this story several times (came up around noon), and it came from the British Daily Mail.  BS-factor?  I'd give it a '6', but it might be partially true.

So the story goes....Russian commander Colonel Yuri Medvedev was in charge of a tank unit.

In the past two weeks or so....his unit had 'lost' half it's manpower.  We aren't told they are dead, captured, or just escaped.  There's no way to prove that part of the story.

He was in the midst of some 'pep-talk' and some Army guy decided enough, and took a tank....driving it over the commander.  What is written is the commander is alive but has serious leg injuries.

The Russian government?  They've awarded the Commander some kind of medal for 'courage'.  He's apparently resting up in a hospital in Belarus.  

If this were 'true'?  Well.....it's an example of how you could 'drive' a bunch of guys for several weeks, with no rest....continual combat, and expect them not to react in a harsh manner.

The tank guy?  No one says much.  I might think he's dead at this point.  

Here's the problem....if any of this was true....it'll get out and you might see a dozen commanders a week....'whacked'.  We aren't talking Captains or Majors....but real commanding officers.  

At that point (if true), the Putin-war is doomed.  

Little Versus Big Problem

 Focus brought this story up in the afternoon today....over a town called Leinburg.  If you went looking on the map.....it's a smaller town about seven miles east of Nuremburg.  Size?  Population of about 6,000.  There's probably fifteen-odd restaurants in the area, and it's mostly where Nuremburg folks go to live....who want the small-town feeling but close enough to work.  In simple terms....it's quiet.

So, the town of Leinburg spent a fair amount of time/effort to build an emergency shelter for the Ukrainian folks. 

Couple of days ago.....the first bus arrived, and the folks stepped off....looked at the situation, and then declined...wanting 'a big city feeling' instead.

Some of the reasons here?  They think they will get better medical care in Nuremburg....than this town seven miles to the east.

What ended up happening?  Well....the bus had apparently pulled off and left (maybe a good thing).  Finally the mayor and local police suggested that the folks take the local train (S-Bahn), and somehow got them over to that station, and then they rode into Nuremburg.  Nuremburg was stuck looking for accommodations for them.

If you go back to 2014-2016....this was the same routine.  Refugees only wanted 'name-brand' cities.  A  place like Bitburg, or Boppard, or Winnweiler is not going to end up as a 'destination' for any refugees.  

The town on the other side of my village (over the hill) spent a fair amount of time working up a modular building to handle forty-odd refugees (2015).  People came, but within two or three months.....they all wanted a 'exit'....the town didn't have status or clout.  By the end of 2017, the modular building was cancelled out on the lease.

What this all means?  There are roughly 80-to-90 cities in Germany which can be deemed 'appropriate' for refugees of any type.  Beyond that....the other 3,000 towns, villages or communities have nothing to worry about.....refugee centers will never exist.

The funny thing I can about this logic.....if you settle upon a city like Bremen, Hamburg, Frankfurt, or Berlin....you have to accept the crime, drug scene, and big-city garbage that goes with the image.  If the refugees could grasp that....they'd probably realize that whatever they get....in the big-city....might not be happiness.

Even a temp lodge deal in Wiesbaden?  You might want to review the police blotter for the past year, and prepare yourself for petty crime being a daily activity to avoid.

That Chat Forum From Last Night

 Last night, via the late-night live chat forum with Markus Lanz (ZDF, Channel 2).....they had a Russian Oligarch guy come on (Mikhail Khodorkovsky).

How the future is laid out with Khodorkovsky and his view of Putin?

Putin assembles 'wars' as a problem-solver.  If public support dwindles....Putin starts a 'little' war.

So, in his view....when Ukraine's event ends (he doesn't really suggest now, or even in six months)......there will be a lull period, and then the attention will go to the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), and Poland.

This comment has been on my mind for a number of hours.

The Ukrainians suggest that 40,000 Russian troops are now non-players in the war.  Logic?  Between deaths on the battlefield, wounded, captured folks, and guys who've deserted....this is how the 40k number exists.  I don't really argue against it....I noticed that the Pentagon also started going to this mythology now.  The 40k number?  It comes up after only 4 weeks of 'military operations'.

If you go and figure up the end of June....it's probably going to be near 100,000 minimum.  

It won't really surprise me if hundreds of Russian police are called to the region of Russia within 100 miles of the Ukraine-Russia border, and look for deserting solders over the next month.  It's also possible enough frustration exists....where the solders might assault/kill the police to ensure their survival.   

Between the loss of tanks/APCs, crashed helicopters/fighters, and lost solders.....I think Putin would reach some position where he just says such-and-such region of the Ukraine is annexed....without a treaty.  Yes, in effect....leaving 50,000 Russian troops there in a doomed position.

The real goal then?  Well....restock the military, get the sanctions dumped, and act 'civil'.  Then start some plan for three years in the future to take on the Baltic states and Poland.

The NATO folks?  They probably know the script and admit that they have to keep forces in place.....for the next three to five years...waiting for this Putin gimmick to be brought into action. 

But while this is going on.....those 50,000 Russian troops left to guard some part of their annexation....will be assaulted on a weekly basis....weakening Russia even more.

It's like a two-star script for some Mark Wahlberg-Steven Seagal war movie (movie name suggestion: 'Waiting For The War').

If you felt there was some end coming?  No, it's just a 'commercial' at the mid-way point of the 'Putin-Show'.  

The Section 188 Story

 In recent days...Section 188 of the German Criminal Code has come in the news.  The general area in this section?  

"Malicious gossip and defamation in relation to persons in political life."

By political life, this pertains to a local city commissioner, or all the way to the Chancellor's position.

IF there is malicious gossip going on (degrading a person, or impacting their public 'persona')....then you've committed malicious gossip. 

A court would convene, and if guilty...you could go off for three months....but it's possible for it to be serious enough....to get you five years.  

The dividing line here?  If you make a statement that so-and-so got rich off kickbacks but there's no proof....that's malicious gossip.  If you made a Twitter comment that so-and-so is connected to Putin, but there is no factual evidence of that....that's malicious gossip. If you said that so-and-so gave special building privilege's to a company but there's zero proof/evidence....that's malicious gossip.

Why this topic comes up?  Various individuals have used social media in Germany over the past couple of years (maybe even going back to 2014 and the refugee crisis)....to hype up criticism of the government.  Some of this was general commenting, and doesn't drag you into a court.  Some of this was direct threats, and 4-star insults.  

Well....various investigations were gathered up in the past year and they've started to conduct judge-authorized raids on private German citizens.  Shocking?  These folks just kept thinking they were anonymous or the cops were never smart enough to track them.  

I should add...just for the sake of understanding the Criminal Code....that paragraph 189 is just as tricky.  If you went and insulted the dead (even Kaiser Wilhelm I or II)....it covers that situation.   If you insulted the dead guy enough (without facts), you could get up to two years in prison.  

Looking at the Code, you could even bring up a pretty harsh review of Moses, and his various failures....then criticize Moses over botched situations....without any facts, and get yourself into three months of jail.  I should note, this is just in theory....there's probably not more than five Germans alive today who go around hyping vast negativity over Moses.  

FYI, the majority of these people in the raid-target situation.....made their comments in the 2021 German federal election.  From what the general news says....around 600 Twitter/Facebook/Social Media comments are what is being reviewed by prosecutors.  My humble belief is that they will drag the crowd in....try to get some admission of guilt, and hand them a minor amount of days in jail (with a fine).  

(Footnote: I forecasted this trend back in 2017 and suggested leaving/exiting social media was probably going to be necessary to avoid police visits)

Q-and-A

 1.  At the end of this 'war'....who exactly will be left to pay for the damage in the Ukraine?

Christopher Schiltz of WELT wrote a good piece this morning and basically said....since both Ukraine and Russia will be bankrupt by the end....it's the west (Europe, Asia and the US) that will be left paying for an entire decade.

I do agree with this assessment....but adding that whatever cash reserves exist outside of Russia....will be drawn for this program, and that the entire riches of the Oligarch folks will probably be drawn upon as well.

Yeah, it's basically a tax upon those who didn't participate, didn't want WW III, or support either side.

2.  Will Germany cut Russia's natural gas sales?

If you go and listen to the nightly news pieces and interviews with politicians....the gut feeling is that half of all Russian natural gas sales in Germany will disappear by the end of 2022 (minimum).  

I should add....it'll be a tremendous pain for some folks, with their heating systems turned down to two to three degrees in the home.

3.  Back a couple of weeks ago when the Germans said they were going to give 'weapons' to the Ukraine....did they actually go and do that?

It's a funny topic.  This came up last week in the Bundestag and the opposition folks (now, the CDU Party) asked for an accounting.  So, what you can get out of this....some deliveries had not been made.  The coalition government kinda got caught with it's pants down on this matter.  So, the claim is this week....yes, transport is going on.

4.  How long can front-line assault troops go on, without a pause/break?  

N-24 brought this topic up in the AM today.  Generally, you can stage some incursion and drag troops around for about ten days....then their attention level and mistake-making start to increase.  In a normal world, you'd have fresh troops in a staging area....rotating them with the front-line guys, and just continue on.

My humble feeling is that there aren't that many folks on Russian soil in preparation for a swap-out, and that the A-team....is 'it'....continuing on.  Some of these guys haven't showered or had a full six hours of sleep since mid-Feb?  Probably the majority of the Russian troops are in this category.  

All of this, if you think about it....leads to stupid mistakes and lives lost.

5.  Some German suggestion going around for people to eat ten to fifteen kilos of meat less (yearly) because of the food crisis affecting the world?

Well....yeah, that started up in the last week.  Fifteen kilos adds up to 33 US pounds.

This logic is all tied into less fertilizer, less feed for cattle/swine, and lesser meat production.

The same people haven't understood that if this makes perfect sense....then consuming less wheat products (because of the war affecting the Ukraine's production of wheat) is also on the table.

6.  Is a lot of this Russia military strategy simply based on 'wishful thinking'?

This got brought up on German N-TV this morning, with an interview with a military analyst.  

Yeah, there's a lot of speculation that Putin has only a handful of people that he talks with, and they feed him chatter that makes him happy but isn't connected to reality.

So he turns the chatter around...implements orders, and then briefs the general public of Russia of great things...which haven't occurred in the real world.  

Yeah, the more you think about this.....it sounds like a Doctor Strangelove-Stripes-Tropic Thunder-Kelly's Heros scripted movie.  You could easily have some Ukrainian film crew doing a zombie-flick where Russian soldiers were fed Fauci-pills and inject 30-minute 'movie' into Russia as some false sense of reality.  

7.  Panic attacks increasing in Germany, since the war started?

Well....yeah.  This gets brought up at least once or twice a week via newspapers or public TV reporting.  Germans are seeing their doctors.....getting slips to visit a mental health clinic, and openly discussing breathing issues/heart palpations.

No one says numbers....but I would imagine that people who spend two hours nightly of raw video viewing or getting countless interviews with Ukrainians....start to get 'dizzy'.

Any day now, I expect some German doctor to invent a new phrase to cover the trend.

8.  From that big Friday Putin-fest held at the Moscow Luzhniki Stadium.....were there actually fake video inserted into the TV broadcast?

Well.....this is what N-TV said last night.  Some people went back and viewed the whole video feed....NOT just the five-to-ten minute pep talk by Putin.

What they say is that some of the video-clips came from a 2021 stadium event called 'Crimea Day'.  

How much of the stadium video was faked-up?  Unknown...it's triggered some people to go back and look at past situations.  

Kind of comical if you think about it....building up a whole 'show', with five-to-ten clips which were a year....maybe even two years in the past.  

9.  If you were a German holding Russian stock?

Baader Banker here in Germany made a comment that they consider a scenario like this....to be a pretty crappy outcome (hint: total loss).  How you report this to the German tax folks?  This might get interesting as you near the end of 2022, and people decide to take a total wash on a million-Euro investment profile in Russia.

10.  Is there a German plan in existence to cover the situation if Russia cuts off natural gas?

Yes, on the books since 2019.

Companies and industry to suffer?  Yes, to a significant degree, and it'd likely trigger more recession/inflation problems.

11.  Ukrainian kids in Germany as refugees.....preferring home-school situations?

This got brought up by ARD (public TV) yesterday.  The bulk of kids would prefer that, and it probably wouldn't take that much to build a network system (in their language) and support it by the German government.  

The No-Bomb Situation

 Around a week ago....some work (construction-wise) was being done at the autobahn gas station over near my house (about 2 miles away, as the crow flies).  

In the midst of this....they had a guy with the metal detector who walked the grounds and he got all excited.  Yes, a gut feeling of a WW II bomb.  Everything stopped, and the bomb guys got the call.

So they plan out this massive operation. 

Among other things....the autobahn itself has to be closed down. Yes, for four hours....both directions are shut-down.  All of this was set up for last night (9 PM).

The gang started digging (at this stage, it's not been seen).  

They finally reach the object, and it's NOT a bomb, but a fair-sized chunk of a bridge (steel girder) that someone (probably in the 1950s) just dumped there in the disposal process.  

That ended the bomb situation, and the autobahn opened back up.

All due to some 'Huns-guy' who cut corners and just dumped rusted steel into a construction project in the 1950s?  Yeah.  

The War: 24 March 2022 (AM)

 1.  Lot of chatter going on about the October G20 conference (to be held in Bali).  The G20 folks said as of last week....Putin is NOT invited.  China stood up and said....'no, that's not right and you need to have Putin there'.  

I noticed this morning...Australia said 'no'.

Who makes the final decision?  The Indonesian government.  

My gut feeling?  Once you say war crimes....whatever this invitation was about....you can't really bring a war crimes guy into the situation.  I'm believing that Indonesia won't have the guys to say 'no', and Putin shows up to a meeting where there's only 3 members.  

2.  German government officials are calling for other European countries (Denmark, France, Spain, and Greece) to accept Ukrainian refugees.  

3.  Since they (the Russians) are coming around to pick up their dead soldiers...a Ukrainian IT company is scanning faces of the dead for Russian parents to recognize their sons, and attempt some pick-up.  

4.  The UK says it's ready to ship 6,000 additional missiles to the Ukraine (anti-tank, surface-to-air, etc).

5.  Kremlin blocked Google now....saying they are providing misinformation within their offerings.  

6.  France apparently grabbed two more Oligarch yachts yesterday.

7.  Russia's Defense Minister Shoigu....has not been seen in public since 11 March (roughly two weeks).  

Health issues?  He had some ailments before the operation started, and it's strongly suggested that stress is bothering him.

I should note....Shoigu is 66 years old, and a fairly chunky guy....so I would imagine he's got various blood pressure issues.

8.  Sweden says it's preparing a shipment of 5,000 more anti-tank missiles for the Ukraine.

9.  German Vice-Chancellor Habeck told the Russians in blunt talk....the contract they have....does not force the Germans to pay in Rubles for Russian energy.   Breach of contract?  Well....it's hard to see where this goes.

10.  Sixty-percent of Finns have said 'yes' to the join-NATO question in a poll. 

11. Russia has hyped up some murder of a ethnic Russian in Euskirchen, Germany. The only problem is that it's a fake story.  

One Aspect Of The Mainz Stabbing

 There's not much to add over the Somali guy, who stabbed three folks on the street this week, except to discuss the reasoning (at least in his mind).

This was all over failed driver's tests (plural).  Cops aren't clear, but it would appear that it was three or more times failed.

So, to explain this detail about how driver's training works in Germany.....this is the path.

Around age 18, you go to a private driver-tutor.  You sign a contract.  The training part of this will cost a minimum of 1,800 (usually) Euro, and goes to a higher level of potentially 3,000 Euro.  

If you talk to most people....living in urbanized areas.....they end up paying around 2,300 Euro currently.  Rural folks can usually find better 'deals'.

At the end of the in-house training and the drive training...you come to the office (business deal, not the government).  There's the written test to be accomplished.  Cost?  Presently around 91 Euro.  

The last time I took this (goes back to the early 1990s).....this was a two-part test where you had 10 minutes to do the sign portion (roughly 80 signs) and then the quiz (multiple choice)....of about fifty questions and forty minutes.

On the signs.....there was a strategy....read the description first, then jump to the sign pictures.  I'll just say this, if you open up the training book....there's probably over 250 types of signs out there, and 20-percent you might never see in most of Germany (maybe just in railway or Alpine situations).

Most people will tell you that if they failed this once or even twice....it was always the sign part that screwed them up.  

The written test?  At least 20-percent  are these stupid scenarios....four-way crossing where a horse-drawn wagon, a bicyclist, a guy in a postal delivery vehicle, and a regular car come up to the intersection....listing who is turning and who is driving straight.  Questions like this.....unless you really understand the dynamics of German driving....will freak you out and cause you to waste a whole 120 seconds on one single question.

So, for this Somali guy.....there's one other test....the actual driver's situation.  Cost?  It's around 22 Euro.  Basically, you get their vehicle and the instructor tells you a route (usually 30 minutes of street and open-driving).  The pass-ratio (at least I'm told this over the years)....is around 95-percent.  People with bad nerves....are usually the ones who fail.  

In this case with the Somali guy.....he's come in and tested several times.  I'm guessing on the written/sign test.  This means that he's paid 91 Euro....for each test failure.

In his mind....he thought he had a special deal....maybe he paid 2,000 Euro and he felt the two tests at the end would only be 113 Euro total.  If you've taken the written/sign test four times, and failed each....that's a fair amount of extra cost.

Adding to this whole thing....at least for 2021 in Germany....the written test can be offered in eleven other languages: English, French, Greek, Italian, Croatian, Polish, Portuguese, Romanian, Russian, Spanish and Turkish.

One final note, if you asked me the reading level of the test (I've taken it in 1978, 1984, and 1993)....I'd tell you that it's written for a sixth-grade kid.  If you can't read or marginally read at the 3rd grade level....you will not pass, and you won't get a license.  

Anyone's guess on how the guy got frustrated, but this private-tutor guy probably didn't bend much on the test, and his 'friendliness' might have been marginal.  So I might agree....just a bad day and another failed test.....set the Somali guy off.  

I'll add.....there's a hundred 'tough' things about settling into Germany, and getting used to.  Most US military folks go and push themselves through this in a 30-day window as they arrive.  I could probably write a 300-page book on the hundred tough things to grasp/realize, and detail various people who came up to me to ask 'why is this so damn hard'?   My usual response was....after the Romans left, the Germans wised up and made all the processes of life formidable and burdensome. 

That Mainz Stabbing

 I essayed a piece on this early in the AM today.  Cops have updated the story.

So the Somali guy?  Well....he'd failed the driver's test at the driver's training center (across from the Mainz train station).

Yes, more than once.

So he'd lost his patience with the guy, and probably frustrated at continued cost being involved in the German driver's license deal.

Yes.....nothing to do about Islam, or some woman.....just failing a driver's test set him off.  End of the story.  

Will Germans Pay For Natural Gas In Rubles?

 Russia has come out and said if you are a 'unfriendly' country to Russia....whatever energy you buy....you will pay in Rubles.

In an average year, for Germany?  The conservative view is that Germany pays about 50 billion Euro for natural gas and oil.

How I see this playing out?  For the time being (figure next six months)....Germany will have to play this game.  As the clock ticks....every alternate source for oil and gas will be discussed, and the lessen need for Russian oil/natural gas will occur (figure by the end of 2022).

The plus side here....for the short-term....the Ruble stabilizes.  

Kid Value? 300k Euro?

 13-year old German kid....worth 300,000 Euro?

Well....here's the deal....there's this German soccer club (Borussia Mönchengladbach) who has a 'kid' under contract.  

Name?  Mike Wisdom.  He's a forward.

Bayern Munich has stood up and said they want to sign the kid.  Transfer payment?  300,000 Euro.

All of this has drummed up news interest and some people think it's a crazy amount of money....to 'guess' upon a kid. 

If you ask around today.....this story has turned up to be a top ten story.  

Inflation For Germany In 2022?

 N-TV had a business piece around noon....talk now is that the German inflation rate for 2022 is figured to be near 6.1-percent.

Yeah, that's a hefty chunk to lug around.

More than what was openly discussed in December?  Well....back then, it was figured to be around 3.3-percent for 2022.  

WTF-Reasons to the Putin-War?

 I try to avoid being a arm-chair 'general', but as each week passes, you tend to notice various things that stand out.  So, these ten are on my mind:

1.  Whatever plan 'A' was (by the FSB, or former KGB)....it was basically a crappy 2-star plan on paper....that I suspect was never intended to be more than a discussion-paper.  I also don't think plan 'B' (the one that came after Putin fired the FSB folks) doesn't say much except destroy as much of the Ukraine as possible.

2.  I suspect for more than 20 years (maybe going back to the 1990s)....Kremlin insiders, the Oligarch crowd, Putin himself, and the generals....all took a cut of the military modernization budget.  Maybe it was limited to 5-percent of the total budget....maybe it went to 10-percent.  I also think most of the production (carried on in Minsk).....ended up with a 90 percent scale of what was ordered, with the Minsk industry folks carrying home more of a cut themselves.  Even when cold-weather gear was supposed to be produced and stored....I might suspect that half the pallets were empty....with gear sold off to the black-market by local commanders.

3.  Did they have an actual force signed up and getting paychecks?  Part of me wants to suggest that some commanders kept fake names on the list....collecting the pay, and just pretending they were one-hundred-percent manned (1,500 people at the Army post)....when 300 of them were fake/non-existent.  Some of them being fake 'contract' people....meaning the commander was paid more?  Yeah.  So you might have a ratio of one real officer, one real NCO, and forty Conscripts (half of them non-existent).  

4.  I think Putin for the past five years has been in some mental decline.  I could suggest that he might be in the position of Stalin....where the final three years were mostly isolation and inability to rationally make decisions.

5.  I think the Kremlin view of the Ukrainian President is that he's a marginalized comedian-turned-President, who is Jewish and not up to the task required.  

6.  I think the whole lesson of Afghanistan was in the end....Russia is unprepared to fight a protracted guerrilla-style war.   This is precisely what they've walked into with the Ukraine.

7.  I think the dozen-odd characters behind Putin.....all believed that the EU/US would falter and not be able to bring four-star sanctions against them.  They guessed wrong.

8.  I don't think the Russian economy is capable of surviving long-term under what would be Soviet-design (a fake economy).  

9.  If the rumor is correct that the Russian National Guard has been now deployed into the military operation....they were supposed to be simply policemen....not front-line assault troops.  If you end up in four months with half of this 'crew' dead or maimed.....how exactly will you control folks back-home?

10.  I think that while 10-percent of the public might buy into bringing back the USSR/Soviet Union....I just don't think the bulk of society would take that suggestion serious.  

Rain and Snow Since 1 January?

 I live in the Rhine Valley region.  Typically, I can say x-amount of rain and snow occur....and it's always within the average.

This year?  

There was some scattered snow flurries since 1 January....but if you added it up....it probably was less than two inches total.

There was a massive amount of rain between mid-January and early February.  Then it stopped.

From about the first week of February to now?  Seven weeks?  We had one single day with some misty rain but otherwise....NOTHING.

Projection for the next ten days.....NOTHING.

Last night via public TV (both ZDF and ARD)....lot of chatter over a drought condition for the country....with more forest fires.

Warm weather this year?  My assessment (at least since 1 January, and only for my central region)....it's probably the mildest winter of the past ten years (since 2022 started).  

Do I attach global warming to this?  No....it's just that the jet stream is loosened up and flowing in a pattern that fails to deliver cooler or more moist air.  It's the same jet stream that for two weeks....delivered a heck of a lot of moist air, with higher than average rainfall for that period.

Chat Forum of Las Night

 Last night, via public TV on ZDF (Channel Two), the Markus Lanz show came on.  It's a live show, with a chat forum situation.  His chief guest?  Florence Gaub.

I left the clip here, if you want to watch it....19-minute discussion:

Gaub?  She's what you'd call an expert on modern and past warfare.  

Her analysis of the Putin-War?  Whatever plan 'A' or 'B' was....it's failed miserably, and Putin has no way to exit.

As for Ukraine's strategy stall the Russians?  It's worked, and the dynamics of convoy-resupply efforts for the Russians is failing.  

She also soothed German fears over nuclear war.

I tend to agree with most everything she said.  If the resupply convoy lines can't perform at 100-percent, or even 50-percent....then you will find ten-thousand-odd Russian troops standing there in two weeks....being told not to fire their weapon more than ten times per day, to stretch out a 5,000 calorie meal packet for five days until they get the next delivery of food (meaning you lose a pound or two per day), and leaving wounded comrades behind because there's no medical support going on.  

The X-day?  This is the day that the Ukrainians trap some 4-star Russian general two miles outside of Kiev and have him order a surrender of 6,000 troops under his command.  At that moment, Putin's war has marginal chance of any win.  The general in question?  He can never go back to Moscow or Russia, and a massive 'fit' will occur with Putin when the news gets to Moscow.  

I recommend a view of her chat....all in German of course.