WTF-Reasons to the Putin-War?

 I try to avoid being a arm-chair 'general', but as each week passes, you tend to notice various things that stand out.  So, these ten are on my mind:

1.  Whatever plan 'A' was (by the FSB, or former KGB)....it was basically a crappy 2-star plan on paper....that I suspect was never intended to be more than a discussion-paper.  I also don't think plan 'B' (the one that came after Putin fired the FSB folks) doesn't say much except destroy as much of the Ukraine as possible.

2.  I suspect for more than 20 years (maybe going back to the 1990s)....Kremlin insiders, the Oligarch crowd, Putin himself, and the generals....all took a cut of the military modernization budget.  Maybe it was limited to 5-percent of the total budget....maybe it went to 10-percent.  I also think most of the production (carried on in Minsk).....ended up with a 90 percent scale of what was ordered, with the Minsk industry folks carrying home more of a cut themselves.  Even when cold-weather gear was supposed to be produced and stored....I might suspect that half the pallets were empty....with gear sold off to the black-market by local commanders.

3.  Did they have an actual force signed up and getting paychecks?  Part of me wants to suggest that some commanders kept fake names on the list....collecting the pay, and just pretending they were one-hundred-percent manned (1,500 people at the Army post)....when 300 of them were fake/non-existent.  Some of them being fake 'contract' people....meaning the commander was paid more?  Yeah.  So you might have a ratio of one real officer, one real NCO, and forty Conscripts (half of them non-existent).  

4.  I think Putin for the past five years has been in some mental decline.  I could suggest that he might be in the position of Stalin....where the final three years were mostly isolation and inability to rationally make decisions.

5.  I think the Kremlin view of the Ukrainian President is that he's a marginalized comedian-turned-President, who is Jewish and not up to the task required.  

6.  I think the whole lesson of Afghanistan was in the end....Russia is unprepared to fight a protracted guerrilla-style war.   This is precisely what they've walked into with the Ukraine.

7.  I think the dozen-odd characters behind Putin.....all believed that the EU/US would falter and not be able to bring four-star sanctions against them.  They guessed wrong.

8.  I don't think the Russian economy is capable of surviving long-term under what would be Soviet-design (a fake economy).  

9.  If the rumor is correct that the Russian National Guard has been now deployed into the military operation....they were supposed to be simply policemen....not front-line assault troops.  If you end up in four months with half of this 'crew' dead or maimed.....how exactly will you control folks back-home?

10.  I think that while 10-percent of the public might buy into bringing back the USSR/Soviet Union....I just don't think the bulk of society would take that suggestion serious.