Thirty Days of War Assessment

Fourteen observations:

1.  After 30 days of military operations, you can safely say it's an unwinnable situation for Putin at this point.  His crew entered with the normal 'lets-fight-a-conventional-tank-war', and Ukraine went to the unconventional strategy.  

Putin's crew then planned roughly four entry points, with their 150,000 soldiers.  Logistically, this put the resupply efforts into turmoil when the quick-win idea failed.  As resupply convoys entered on the four fronts.....they came under attack.  It wasn't just the tanks/APCs escorting the convoy being destroyed....it was the trucks loaded with food/ammo/fuel that were destroyed as well.  

A 100,000 'Igors' stood there and were told by tomorrow....fresh food would arrive, with ammo for three more days of operations.  That convoy failed to make it, and the 100,000 'Igors' stood there....marginal food for 12 hours and being told to limit ammo.  Hope was lost at that point.  After you repeat that three times, your enthusiasm is gone as a foot-soldier.  

2.  There is no secondary fresh group of another 150,000 troops to come in at the 10-day or 20-day or 30-day point.  Some stories have surfaced that National Guard people (who typically don't go through regular yearly exercises or training) are being delivered to the war-zone, on top of the 150,000.  

3.  No cold-weather gear?  That story started last week via the Ukrainian news folks.  I give it a BS-factor of '5', but kinda wonder if Putin's generals would be that stupid.

4.  How many Russian generals have either been killed or fired?  Total going up over 15 presently?

5.  The anti-tank missiles and Stingers making a difference?  Yeah, and there's still 10,000 yet to be delivered from 'promises' made two weeks ago by western countries.

6.  Russians worried over price increases and empty shelves?  Word came up this morning that pharmacies in Russia are having a run on sleeping pills, antidepressants, and birth control items.  

7.  Just about every single European country has upped it's military budget now....so if Putin wanted a weaker Europe....he failed miserably on that front. 

8.  I don't see massive shutdowns for Russian airports for 2022, but I would forecast that most airports will see only 20-percent of the normal traffic they had for 2019 (before Covid struck).  Basically, you can probably still fly anywhere in Russia, Belarus, Cuba, and China.  

9.  There was a shock in Germany this week as people realized sunflower oil and flour are now in short supply because the stock came mostly from the Ukraine and Russia.  This morning, folks learned that the bulk of mustard seeds for German-made mustard.....also comes from the Ukraine (expect that shelf to be empty soon).

10.  With a diminished GDP....how Russia restocks it's tank/APC inventory is questionable after this military operation ends.  

11.  Most Russians will agree that propaganda takes place every single day, but the same folks will admit since 1917.....this has been a element of their life.  They simply got used to the fact that 50-percent of what they were told....was BS.

(I hate to admit this, but if you quizzed Americans, probably half of them would say that 50-percent of what they get via the news networks is BS as well).

12.  Alcoholism at play?  Well, several folks have suggested that the typical Russian soldier (even 19-year-old conscripts) are heavy consumers of vodka.  In this war period, a lot of them are on the wagon....craving a bottle of booze to meet what was their daily needs.

13.  Russians with college degrees are quietly assessing the 'stay-or-go' situation.  If the economy of Russia collapses.....why participate in it?  Slipping out...in the middle of the night and asking for asylum in Europe is now occurring.  

14.  Finally, if this goes on to June, and 100,000 Russian soldiers are either dead, severely wounded, or just quit the war....what does Putin have left to 'play'?  With the exception of the nuke ability....beyond that....Russia ranks as a equal to France (on a really good day....France alone, without NATO, probably could win a war.....finally).