This morning, Minister of Economics Habeck (Green Party) announced the early 'warning level' of the plan.
If you follow the Russian chatter....this week, GAZPROM (the supplier of Russian natural gas into Germany) was directed by Putin to get the message out....you pay in Rubles or you get the gas turned off.
Putin's belief (sponsored by his Kremlin insider folks)? They will all accept this Rubles idea and pay....weakening their message of support. So far, the Germans have said 'NO'....the contract stipulates dollars or Euro as payment.
Kremlin insiders guessing wrong? I would make the assessment that they keep talking among themselves, and convincing each other that they can force this issue.
So IF this holds true....the GAZPROM folks will hit the off-button shortly (I anticipate this within the next week). Who will buy the GAZPROM product then? Well....the Foreign Minister is in China and I think he wants them to sign up to the lucky 'winner' of Russian natural gas....obviously buying in Rubles.
Will China agree to this part of the deal? I think they will respond with a suggestion that they would buy.....but either with Chinese currency, or dollars. That will bring up a month-long discussion in Russia, and they will go back to urge the Rubles once again to everyone.
At this point, the end of April....I think the economic collapse of Russia will be on the mind of a number of folks.
Where are the Oligarch folks, the Kremlin insiders and Putin currently? There's no real evidence any of them are in Moscow. Some Oligarch folks appear to have left the country and are simply maintaining a low profile in odd countries (like Turkey).
If natural gas production and movement comes to a standstill....what then?
I'm not really convinced this is a four-star idea to allow to develop.
Collapse of Russia? This morning, I sat and watched a podcast where this topic came up. The Russian (not a Ukrainian, German, Brit or American) went into a long discussion about the necessity of Putin or the government always 'winning'. So this military operation.....with losses in manpower and tanks....is anything but 'winning'.
My humble view is that no one within the military structure is openly talking about losses of any type to Putin or the Kremlin-elite. The idea that you might have 40,000 Russian soldiers who are dead, prisoners, wounded, lost in the woods, deserted or just plain in some unknown status? It's comical to think you have such a broad category existing and that you just say in blunt terms.....the 40,000 don't exist anymore.
But adding to this scenario.....a thousand men a day appear to be layered into this mess as either dead, prisoners, wounded, lost in the woods, deserted or just plain in some unknown status. Another month of this? Another 30,000?
Putin can't even award medals without the numbers being faked-up.
As for Germany's gas problem? I see four things occurring shortly:
1. German industry that required natural gas for production being told to put workers on furlough (paid) for three months.
2. Speed limits on autobahns to be restricted to 130 kph (maybe even 100 kph).
3. Sunday travel by car to be frowned upon.
4. Sudden interest in solar panels that can be hooked to conventional heating sources in homes.
It's a rough period coming up.
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