Over the past two weeks, I've seen a number of things which you could piece together to suggest a theory. Problems? It's hard to say it's factual, or a hoax, or just odd pieces of a story which normally wouldn't be told in public.
So the story starts at the end of 1991....as the Soviet Union falls apart, and Russia emerges.
The general problem....the Kremlin is trying to find a 'vehicle' to structure Russia into a commercial-but-controlled state of operations....meaning that Moscow runs things but capitalism and commerce are allowed to flourish. At this point, the Oligarch 'crew' emerges as the solution to give Moscow everything it needs to retain power....produce capital....sell or barter in the world market, and be seen as a legit world power.
This young guy from the KGB (Putin) resigns, and takes up an odd job....deputy chief of Presidential property management. He's basically handling the transfer of old Soviet property books.....to new Russia property books. To this day....no one can really explain what Putin did for those nine months....other than make connections....hang out....and chat with insiders.
By April of 1997, Putin gets this odd promotion....he's now the deputy chief of staff for the President, and moves up to the chief of Presidential property management.
In roughly two years, Putin will be stepped up to be one of the three top deputy ministers under Yeltsin.
On the last day of 1999.....Yeltsin is 'retired-out' and Putin becomes the acting President of Russia.
What you can say from that day on....Putin is feared by virtually everyone within the Oligarch community, the military, and the Kremlin itself.
So the theory goes this way....as Covid became a problem, Putin closed off travels and social engagements. The only people who got access to him....was the inner circle.
The 'inner circle'? Well....they needed to keep Putin focused on problems....so he didn't go investigating them for corruption or greed, or incompetence.
The old chatter before this period? Well....you could walk up and say there's too much sex or lust on Russian TV. Or, you could suggest that such-and-such part of the Moscow International Airport was falling apart. Or you could say that retirees in Russia need a 2.5-percent rate increase on their pension.
The theory suggests that into 2020/2021....folks started to suggest NAZIs existed in the Ukraine, or that the Ukraine needed to be brought into the Russian 'empire' or that the west was disrespecting Russia.
Putin (in this theory) took the suggestions and ran with them. He asked the FSB (former KGB) to write up an invasion plan. In their mind, this was just Putin asking....not really suggesting he'd go off and invade the Ukraine.
As weeks passed, Putin got more and more into this wild idea that things were being orchestrated by NAZIs. Paranoia? Well.....yeah.
Anybody in the Oligarch community, Kremlin, FSB, or military....could have stopped this crap, but they were in fear of Putin.
So the war started, and it didn't conclude 72 hours later.....or 7 days later....or even 30 days later.
Generals telling bogus loss numbers to Putin now....in fear of him? The theory suggests that the whole mechanism reached a level about two weeks ago, where Putin was told nuke-war could occur. So he (and the inner circle) left for some secret bunker site in Siberia (Surgut). It was a major GAZPROM (natural gas company) site from the past thirty years. The general comment is that they are in the bunker and under some impression of massive world chaos going on.
Again, the FSB, Kremlin elite, the Oligarch community or military could have stepped up and laid out the real landscape, but in fear of Putin discovering the massive bogus story made-up.....they just doubled-up on the 'bet'.
This week, some story started up that various Russian soldiers in the Ukraine are fed-up and intentionally 'fixing' their vehicles to fail.....to avoid convoy-duty or assault orders. Lack of confidence, lack of trust, and disbelief in the mission? All of these feed into their mindset.....Putin's lack of reality has probably crept down into the enlisted ranks as well.
What can one say about the theory? IF true....it's the wildest story of the past hundred years. On my BS-meter? I'd give it a '5'.
It's basically admitting that Putin moved up a couple of jobs without any real success story to 'cement' his resume (yeah, kinda like that George Bush story....he did run the Texas Rangers baseball organization for a season or two).
But if you took this serious, it'd mean that Putin is kinda like that Chauncy Gardener character from the movie 'Being There'. He looked right for the part....had some KGB time....and had a ice-cold stare which he could project at various times.
So here we are....a number of Kremlin elite...sitting in some Surgut top secret bunker....sipping vodka around the clock, and hoping to avoid daily meetings with Putin because sooner or later....he'll figure out the whole thing is a one-star scripted 'bad' movie, and he's the star.
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