1. The US came out and made a comment about the rockets being shot by the Russians. So they've looked at imagery and I would assume limited areas....to which the Pentagon came to a failure-rate for Russian rockets fired.
60-percent.
Yes, six out of ten fired....did sail through the air, and hit something.....but nothing blew up.
BS-factor? I'd give it near '8'. Unless you drew up a mile-by-mile area, and had some US munitions expert walk it....that's about the only way that I'd believe this number. I will say this....if it were 60-percent, it's pretty crappy.
2. Russia says more than ten cases are being prepared for Russian citizens being accused of defamation of the Russian Army. If convicted? Well....you could go off for 15 years.
I do suspect some media blitz will occur and these ten unlucky folks will go spend a minimum of ten years in prison. But various people will look at the mess, and ask....why stay?
3. News site say that Putin gave GAZPROM (the natural gas folks) a couple of days to write the new 'annex' for payment of natural gas. Mandated Rubles? Yeah.
If true, then around Tuesday/Wednesday.....GAZPROM will come to Germany and say all future payments must be in Rubles (immediately). German reaction? Pretty much across the whole EU....'no' is the standard answer on paying in Rubles. They have a contract stipulation....Euro or dollars.
My humble guess is that GAZPROM will have a warning period (maybe 72 hours....maybe 7 days), and then the pump gets turned off.
Things will get intense by next weekend (I suspect) in Germany. X-plan will be put in place, with a 50-odd percent cut in natural gas to the country. At this point (early April), I think there's marginal worry. Come October? It might be a harsh reality for Germans.
As for Putin? I think he's got people around him....convinced that the Germans are weak, and you can bend their will on this 'buy-Ruble' gimmick. Again, an enclosed mentality is harming the decision landscape for Putin, and if Germany doesn't bend over.....your only natural gas partner is China. I would imagine the Chinese are grinning because they will state the obvious....they will buy the natural gas, but only with a 10-percent minimum discount. Yeah....screwing the Russians because of this stupid Ruble idea.
4. Monday will be an important day for aviation in Europe. There are around 700 planes leased to Russian airlines, which belong to European companies. The 700 have been grounded, and the order by the leasing companies is to allow the planes to return to European airfields. Russia has suggested....they won't comply.
Anyone's guess on this, but if they hold them.....without parts, I don't see the 700 planes ever flying again.
5. Comment made by German energy folks on Russian coal. If necessary (Germans import about 45-percent of their coal needs from Russia)....they can hustle up alternate sources within a couple of months (note: the US exports around 18-percent of the German coal needs, and Australia makes up the rest).
Germans haven't said 'who' will be the big supplier. There are seven 'big' suppliers of coal in the world (Russia, Malaysia, the US, Australia, South Africa, Columbia and Canada).
6. Russian commander of the 49th Army dead. Not a lot of details.
7. Putin says.....'Nazi crackdown on Russian society'. Yes, Nazis everywhere.
If you were a Russian and followed state news hour by hour (like people in the US follow CNN news)....then you likely believe 100k Nazis are working tirelessly in Russia to harm people.
8. I sat and watched a German public news piece last night....lot of hype about Germans (from kids to adults) disturbed and psychologically bothered by the continual war news.
If I assessed public TV (ARD/ZDF), I'd say in the past week....they've lessen war coverage by 25-percent. Nearly all of the chat forums still continue to be about the energy crisis, the war, or empty grocery shelves in Germany.
If you measure this....I'd say around two-percent of society are thinking war-stuff around the clock....chatting about it at work or via their friends.
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