Last night, via the late-night live chat forum with Markus Lanz (ZDF, Channel 2).....they had a Russian Oligarch guy come on (Mikhail Khodorkovsky).
How the future is laid out with Khodorkovsky and his view of Putin?
Putin assembles 'wars' as a problem-solver. If public support dwindles....Putin starts a 'little' war.
So, in his view....when Ukraine's event ends (he doesn't really suggest now, or even in six months)......there will be a lull period, and then the attention will go to the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), and Poland.
This comment has been on my mind for a number of hours.
The Ukrainians suggest that 40,000 Russian troops are now non-players in the war. Logic? Between deaths on the battlefield, wounded, captured folks, and guys who've deserted....this is how the 40k number exists. I don't really argue against it....I noticed that the Pentagon also started going to this mythology now. The 40k number? It comes up after only 4 weeks of 'military operations'.
If you go and figure up the end of June....it's probably going to be near 100,000 minimum.
It won't really surprise me if hundreds of Russian police are called to the region of Russia within 100 miles of the Ukraine-Russia border, and look for deserting solders over the next month. It's also possible enough frustration exists....where the solders might assault/kill the police to ensure their survival.
Between the loss of tanks/APCs, crashed helicopters/fighters, and lost solders.....I think Putin would reach some position where he just says such-and-such region of the Ukraine is annexed....without a treaty. Yes, in effect....leaving 50,000 Russian troops there in a doomed position.
The real goal then? Well....restock the military, get the sanctions dumped, and act 'civil'. Then start some plan for three years in the future to take on the Baltic states and Poland.
The NATO folks? They probably know the script and admit that they have to keep forces in place.....for the next three to five years...waiting for this Putin gimmick to be brought into action.
But while this is going on.....those 50,000 Russian troops left to guard some part of their annexation....will be assaulted on a weekly basis....weakening Russia even more.
It's like a two-star script for some Mark Wahlberg-Steven Seagal war movie (movie name suggestion: 'Waiting For The War').
If you felt there was some end coming? No, it's just a 'commercial' at the mid-way point of the 'Putin-Show'.
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