Sunday, March 20, 2022

Five Observations Over This Russia-Ukraine War

 1.  On the northern front....there's marginally any movement going on....while you can see a fair amount of movement on the far eastern side (say the line shifts five to ten miles every two or three days).....if the news people are getting accurate data.

There's continually talk of supply convoys on the north getting hit, and wiping out the whole convoy....with Russians killed in the vehicles.  Video of the convoys come up almost daily now....showing burned out trucks and APCs.  

The Russians can claim they still have motivation and a 'will' to win....but I counter that each week that passes....the frontline guys are losing enthusiasm.

2.  Big picture of the economy in Russia?  I don't think serious negatives will be obvious until you start to get into May (6 weeks in the future).  

The people at the head of the food-chain....the ones making big cash and were spending 1-million Rubles per month ($9,300 US)....won't have much to buy from the market place.  

3.  Putin strategy at this point?  I think he intends to kill the top two guys of the Ukraine....arrange in some way for a puppet regime to arrive, and figure his big issues go away.

Whoever ends up as the puppet.....probably has a life expectancy of two weeks.

4.  Russian generals on a hit list?  With eleven days left in March, I would go and suggest that at least two more Russian generals will meet some 'end'.....either by the Ukraine guys killing them or by Putin arresting them for 'failure'.

5.  Things looking more and more like Stalin and the old USSR/Soviet Union?  Well....if you were a Russian over the age of seventy....it's very likely you'd see things that way.  

No comments: