TB Story

 This week, I brought up a new awareness in Germany about Tuberculosis.  This AM....new story appeared from the Boppard region (about 50 miles west of where I live)...in the Pfalz region....where a case of TB popped up.

School?  Yeah.  

Health authorities?  Well....they've isolated the person and gone to a contact list of about 30 people, who will have to have a blood test done shortly after Easter.  

To be honest about TB....if you were around Germany around 100 years ago...it was still a big deal, with it being the lead cause of death for Germans.  Since WW II?  I'd say that most Germans are unfamiliar with the disease, and are shocked how it made a comeback in the country.

Three German News Stories

 1.  Amount of coverage over King Charles visit yesterday?  Maximum possible and 100-percent positive.  

Odd transition from bad-boys of BREXIT, to forgiveness here in 2023.  Off the late news of ARD (9:45 PM), this was probably one-quarter of the whole news report, with analysis.  

2.  Finland finally gets a 'green-light' on joining NATO by Turkey.  Pretty much a wrap-up now.

Sweden?  Still waiting on the Turk's approval and it's more difficult.

3.  ARD had an interesting update to the Nord Stream I/II explosion.

The fake passports used by this reported crew?  Romanian in nature.  

German investigative team says the boat rental came from a Polish company but that was simply a shell-company (a letterbox organization)....that seems to go back to Ukraine.

German federal police believing in this Ukrainian team doing the blast?  They just don't seem that convinced.  

This report also brings up a Greek freighter...which was parked for a number of days in the vicinity of the blast....around this time-period.

Six Observations Over The Ukraine-Russia War

 1.  I watch a minimum of five clips a day....of tank destruction and general combat via YouTube.  This is the most unique war ever fought because of the Ukraine recon capability with these drones and the ability to deliver munitions onto a loitering target.  The Russians aren't so much as losing....as they are simply making mistake after mistake.  

2.  Spring offensive?  Probably within 4 weeks....it will start.  Some people think another quarter-million Russian conscripts will arrive and influence this to some degree.  There's a belief of 50-to-60 thousand Ukrainian troops in some training program currently....will be cut loose and given tank support to counter the Russians.

3.  In the past month, I'd say at least ten different sources have noted economic problems going on in Russia, with the regular consumer now feeling a 'pinch'.

4.  Based on video, I'd say the entire southeastern front is pretty much destroyed....either by the Russians or the Ukrainians, and I don't think anyone much will be living there for the next twenty years.

5.  At some point a month ago....the British military were figuring several hundred Russians were dying daily.  Bodies being taken back to Russian?  Some reports indicate yes....but I would imagine at least 10,000 dead have not been admitted to relatives or wives.  

6.  If you look at the Russian military and the Wagner contractor 'troops'....it's not a friendly situation anymore between the two.  

Crime

 I was looking at headline news from Spiegel today, and this two liner popped out: 'German police confirmed 5.63 million crimes in 2022...with an upsurge in burglary situations, plain old robberies, and pickpocketing'.

More than 2021?  Yeah.

What the police union says?  There's a need for urgent action.  Course, mayors will say that they've all bulked up another 3-to-5 percent since 2015.  

Locally, I review the Wiesbaden/Mainz police blotter at least once or twice a week.  I'll just say that you see a fair amount of break-ins....in homes and business operations.  This past couple of days....the Wiesbaden police noted a sudden up-tick in pickpocket crimes in the mid-town area.

A lot of this due to limited action in the Covid era (2020, and 2021)?  I would suggest that things cooled off in spring of 2022....people were out and about more, with more criminals showing up to hunt for opportunities.  

If you go walk on the shopping district....you can sense people being more careful...purses more tightly controlled, and people eyeballing anyone that looks out of place.  A few weeks ago, they had some report locally where a person was returning to their car in underground parking and someone came up attempting to rob them (in the mid-day).

My Five Ways of Avoiding Disinformation

 1.  First, where exactly did you hear this?  Local news?  Public TV?  UK newspapers?  Foundations with agendas?  

You have to assign a value to it, and say on a scale of one to ten....the 'who' should rise above a '6' as a minimum.  I should state for the record....even crappy sites will occasionally surprise you with an element of truth.

If there is a picture involved....is it a valid picture that the source used?

2.  Is there an agenda tied to the story?  If you establish yes....how big or bold is the agenda?

3.  A fact-checker already validating or invalidating the story...rather quickly?  Why?  

Is this a magnet to suggest the somewhat vague story is validated....when common sense says it's mostly a false story?

4.  Read enough to at least know the broad landscape of the topic.  You don't need to be at some PhD level, but you ought to have some basic knowledge.

5.  Finally, the pause.  On some stories....I'll pick up on a Monday, and pause for 24-to-48 hours before I render an opinion...because more information comes out and changes the perception of the situation.  

Speaking Less Freely?

 University of Mannheim did a study....talking to Germans, and found that a quarter of the population don't think they can speak freely.  

Meaning?  This group (fair sum of people) feels there are consequences if you were to criticize or complain on some problem/issue.  

So when you hear of some topic, that 50-percent of the people say x-comment about and 25-percent say y-comment about....you can naturally assume that the remaining 25-percent might be highly critical or disagreeable.....but likely to just keep their mouth shut.

To be honest, I think the same number exists in the US and most other countries.

Here's your problem though....just trying to discount the group...means you aren't worried about their lack of speech or commentary, but if they were to vote for some opposition party and give that group their 'voice'....then you'd get all hyped up (a good example how the AfD Party got attention/votes/power).

The possibility that this quarter of the population group is muting news and refuse to listen to various segments of society?  I'd start to worry about where this is leading onto.

Connection of Jeffrey Dahmer to West Germany?

 Well...the serial killer has this 2.5 year period where he was assigned to a medical unit in the Pfalz region of West Germany....starting around the summer of 1979.  

His first murder?  Summer of 1978....in the US.

Assignment?  Baumholder area.

Forbidden re-enlistment?  Well....the story goes to what is generally confidential reports that he had serious alcohol and male-rape issues while in the Army.  No one cites the disciplinary actions....so you can't be sure of much of anything.

Two former Army members (males) have spoken to being raped by Dahmer in this period.  German police have looked at five potential murders in this period, but never been able to connect Dahmer to them.  

One odd aspect....the final two or three months of his stay in Germany....he was restricted to the barracks and could not go anywhere unless he was escorted.  Basically, he was out of control and boozed-up....if not under control.  

Suggestion that he may have murdered while in West Germany?  This speculation goes around and has zero facts attached to it.  

He exits West Germany in March of 1981.  

Just Odd

 Today (Thursday) will be the first time in history that a British monarch (King Charles) addresses the Bundestag.  

Angle?  Well....the Germans 'say' tha this is supposed to finally bring about a recovery to the BREXIT event.  The fact that BREXIT was three years ago?  Yeah....some folks have brought up this past era. 

Punishing the 'bad-boy' done?  Some Germans will say that Merkel's response to BREXIT was always a 'spanking' gesture and deserved by the British public.  Others will say that this whole punishment-routine was not fully thought through.  And a few Germans will say that it was jus a remarkable accident that 'exit' came out a point or two ahead of 'remain'. 

A big development?  I would not go that far.  It'll probably be a simple speech....we are of one people....climate yadah-yadah....save the Earth....common cause....maybe you can take Harry and Meghan if Harry's visa is terminated over his admitted drug issues.  

One can probably admit there hasn't been much love between Britain and Germany since 1914, and this visit isn't a four-star event.  

TV Viewing

 Last night (Wed), I got a 45-minute 'dose' of high-intensity climate change and agricultural reform via my regional HR network.   You can review the episode here.

What I'll say is this....by the end of the show, one would come to three rational conclusions:

1.  Butter, eggs, milk, meat, fruit and vegetables are all set to rise in a significant amount over the next decade....without even considering general inflation.  I would imagine meat alone....to probably double what it is today by 2033.  Eggs?  Probably tripling in price.  Chief cause? More significant regulations put upon the farms and general public.  

2.  As these prices escalate, and Germans tend to figure out that food beyond the border (like in France, Poland, Czech, or Austria) is less regulated, and thus less costly....bulk shopping/purchasing will begin to occur, with lesser German agricultural products bought.  

At some point over the next decade, German farmers will just be told....you don't need to produce as much, because the market isn't there.  Politicians will be stuck with a statement that makes no sense....unless you admit regulations drove consumers away.

3.  Finally, whether the enthusiasts of the effort or the politicians grasp this or not....I would suggest the majority of Germans will be eating/consuming non-German produced food within a decade....simply for pricing reasons.  

If I were Poland or Czech....I'd be awful happy to get this help and appreciate everything the system delivers to my front door step.  

Three German News Stories

 1.  The German shoe shop Reno....is going to bankruptcy.  Number two shoe sales in the country.

Chief reason?  They say Covid handed them a ton of debt and it cannot progress on.

2.  Back five years ago...the Bundestag sensed they had a serious problem with child-marriages in Germany.  This mostly came from the 2014/2015/2016 era....where you had Iraqi/Syrian guys arrive...with wives who were under the age of 16.  So they created this law called 'Act to Combat Child Marriage'.  It basically said....if you were under the age of 16 as a partner of a person entering Germany.....the marriage was non-existent.  If you were between 16 and 18.....a judge would be involved and determined if it could continue.

This law was challenged, and yesterday....the Constitutional Court said it's screwed up and told the Bundestag to re-write the law in a different fashion.

A confusing path?  I would offer the opinion that as much as German society really wants to halt underage marriages....they don't want to have to mess with the 'clean-up' of dissolved marriages and underage ex-wives.  

What they didn't pick up or discuss....guys with multiple wives.  Best not to discuss that topic.

3.  Denmark is set to bring up the remains of this buoy unit from the Nord Stream I/II site.  Russia has a seat at the table and will be able to observe the action.

How this can go?  Maybe it has no relationship to the pipeline explosion.  Maybe it's a US manufactured buoy.  Maybe it's a Ukrainian manufactured buoy.  Tons of speculation.  

Germany and Tuberculosis?

 Back in the mid-1990s....I was one of those people who went off to a area of the world that had a fair amount of tuberculosis, and I acquired it.  I ended up going through a nine-month regiment of pills and came to a happy conclusion.  

Oddly, I have this fascination with TB....knowing the full (and rich) history. 

This AM, I read through a German news piece.  The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has deemed TB now a problem in Germany....noting by the end of 2021....almost 4,000 cases for the year.

A big deal?  I would suggest from the 'read' that there's probably more interest now than any point in the past hundred years.  Actually testing people?  No.....if you showed symptoms....then they'd go to the test.  

Immigration Points 'System'?

 This AM....Focus came up and discussed this new SPD draft idea....to bring more qualified immigrant craftsmen into Germany.  It would revolve around your resume/background being 'graded' with points.

Basically six points would be enough to get a visa.

So I looked over the ways you get points.  For example....if you seemed to have a working 'knowledge' of German....you'd get three points.  You'd get two points, if you were just under the age of 35 (over 35....zero points).  You could get a single point, if you spoke English.  You could get up to four points for your qualifications (assuming in your home-country....you attended some technical school or university).

What this draft is supposed to achieve (if passed)?  They suggest 60,000 more people in Germany....to work.  

You can go back a decade ago and this type of point system was strongly recommended, and basically went nowhere.

What they meant by 'working-knowledge' of German?  I would assume passing A1/A2/B1 levels.  If they included the B2 or C1 level?  That might be more intense and add another 6 months of language classes.  

Would the typical Ukrainian pass this qualification?  Most don't speak German, but they would have the university or technical background points (4) and probably have the basic English down.  A class or two in German probably would give the six points.

Will this attract interest?  It's hard to say.  

Scholz As The Carbon Copy Of Merkel?

 I've sat and looked over four journalist's copy today....covering Chancellor Scholz, and the current view of lacking 'leadership'.  All are national-news levels of the current situation with the gov't unable to really get agreement between the SPD, Greens and FDP.

When you go back to the summer of 2021, and the election campaign leading up to the September federal election.....there's one general view going on.  No one really wanted to lead the CDU candidate (Laschet) to a win.  For each weakness that you saw in Scholz....there was more inept views of Laschet than in Scholz.  

The general view in 2021 over Scholz?  He'd been a big player in Hamburg city politics for a decade, and generally regarded as having a weak resume on achievements.  However....when you line up both Scholz and Laschet....you basically had two weaker copies of Merkel, and they were more of the college professor type leader....than what you'd had with Schmidt or Kohl.  It's just that Scholz was slightly ahead of Laschet.

I would compare this to a choice of two cars....both having a marginal 40-horsepower engines.   

So we are at 18 months into this situation, and the coalition is mostly just in a standby-mode.  Voters from the Green Party?  Mostly dissatisfied over marginal achievements.  I would suggest that it's possible that one out of three would be willing to exit the door and find a more far-left pro-environmental party to put their votes behind.

Any improvement to come?  No.  In some ways....the fall 2025 federal election....may seem like a relief to some people.  Scholz likely to run again?  I'm not that convinced.  

Odd Concept

 REWE is a major German grocery store.   I'll admit....they do a lot of testing and surprise on revolutionary new concepts.

So the newest one? They are putting up container stations at train stations.  You go and order X-amount of groceries (for what you'd consider 1 paper-bag) to be delivered around 4-to-5 PM.  So you get off the train...walk over, and here's a locker.  You put in your name/pin, and x-door pops open.

You grab your grocery bag and head home.

Cost?  Not yet disclosed....I'm guessing around 3 Euro.  

Negatives? Well.....its just one single bag (on limit) and you probably don't want anything frozen in the choices.  It's probably a low-income job for some gal....just show up around 3 PM to bag twenty-odd bags and carry them over to the station for placement.  

Wouldn't shock me if this were a couple of 15-year-old kids doing part-time work after school.

For the person with no time?  Yeah...that's the chief selling point....saving you 20 minutes at some grocery for a dozen items.

Four German News Stories

 1.  'Hart Aber Fair' public forum show from Monday night (ARD, Channel 1, 9:00 PM)?  They basically covered the strike action (railways, transportation) from yesterday, the cost of living, inflation, etc.

First, it was rather odd....a panel of all women except the one-on-one talk at the beginning.  

Second, the panel was extremely right-minded and extremely left-minded, and the argument 'thrills' went into maximum turbo.

Third, whatever control that the moderator was attempting....failed miserably.  I'll just say by the last 20 minutes...the show was mostly out-of-control.  

2.  There was a massive 20-hour long 'talk' within the coalition (SPD,  Greens, FDP) on climate change and transportation.  At the end, the Chancellor just ended the meeting....no real agreement (their comment, not mine).

Journalists hype that it's the design of this particular group and that Greens and FDP are at total opposites.

3.  Some poll from the Forsa folks (they do fairly accurate polling)......indicates that 60-percent of Germans aren't that confident that the gov't can manage quality/affordable healthcare for the general public.  

4.  Kiev says (I'd question this as BS) that in a 24-hour period over the weekend....600 Russian soldiers were killed.  It's an awful high count, and zero facts to really back it up.

Five Things About This E-Fuel Chatter in Germany That You Might Want To Realize

1.  E-fuel basically comes from a 'power-to-fuel' process.  You end up with a fuel that comes from water and carbon dioxide.  

2.  Chief negative?  There are stages to reach E-fuel, and each stage has a cost factor.  Presently, no matter who is talking about the path....everyone stresses it will never catch on unless you gain a technology jump or throttle back the cost factor.

3.  Siemens betting alot on E-fuel?  I'd say presently....they lead the pack, and if this works out....they will be getting a huge position over everyone else.

4.   There is this belief that if E-fuels do arrive....it'll be for strictly larger-sized vehicles (big rig trucks, construction equipment, etc)....mostly because of cost.

5.  The EU says it'll allow E-fuels to be a potential path for the future of private cars.  It probably pissed-off a lot of the E-car companies like BMW, Volkswagen and Mercedes.  

Three Observations

 1.  Bayern soccer theatrics and Nagelmann (the coach) fired?

First, it appears that the firing was discovered by some insiders and passed to the news media ahead of time.  This has set off a search to find out who in the management staff of the soccer team leaked it.

Second, Nagelsmann already approached now for a new team?  Tottenham, UK....apparently looking at a deal.

Third, this Bayern replacement coach?  Yesterday, someone brought up his long history of being in conflict with management.  Just on how things look....I'd say he has six to twelve months before he's fired.

2.  Draft plan to build a new Ministry of Finance headquarters....in trouble?

Well....the Minister of Finance himself (Lindner, FDP) has said it's a remarkable waste of money, and now trying to cancel the project.

3.  Odd position taken by the Minister of Construction in Germany?

There's a suggested position going on....where the gov't  (SPD-coalition) would hype up the idea of families would get pushed to some degree to relocate to smaller towns instead of the metropolitan urbanized areas (like Hamburg, Koln or Stuttgart). 

The idea is that you'd fund up mass transit and try to sell Germans on small towns being the answer for the affordable housing crisis.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Lot of turmoil predicted for today (Monday).....all railway services are shutdown until Tuesday AM.  Strike.  Most German airports are closed, with flights cancelled. 

One curious statement by WELT this AM.....the strike proves that you need to maintain a car....that we cannot move into a public transportation only lifestyle.

2.  From Sunday, lot of bad weather over my region of Hessen.  A tornado was seen in the Giessen area, with damage to houses.

3.  Anne Will public forum show via ARD last night?  It covered the topic of life as we advance to phasing out fossil energy.  To make it short and blunt....there's a whole lot of cost in the consequences, and this was laid out by the one scientist in the group of 'guests'.  

4.  Berlin (the city) had a referendum vote yesterday (Sunday)....on the topic of making firm (some would say harsh) climate change goals.  The 'yes, do it' crowd did get 51-percent of the vote....however, they required a minimum of 150,000 additional votes to make this a legit vote.  So, the vote was useless, and no goals are set.

5.  WELT noted the 2022 German crime numbers came out last week, with a significant increase in knife attacks for the nation (total of 8,160 for the year).  

Can You Rent Out RVs and Containers As German Housing?

 NO.

German law kinda lays out that temp housing....like using RV trailers or containers as rental property....cannot be legally done.

You could go and buy an RV or a container building, and have ownership of it....putting it on a camp-ground situation.  But renting it out?  No.

It's one of those funny laws.  Some guy in Berlin has apparently gotten caught....having a number of RV trailers and renting as housing units.  Cops got onto this and it's a court-item now.

Has the affordable housing crisis reached the point where people would accept RV trailers?  

I'd suggest that if you went into Frankfurt and could find a RV park on some end-point of the city (a pad, with power/sewage/water, not in a trashed-up condition)....educating people on how to buy a 5-to-10 year old RV trailer...you might have a thousand people ready to embark upon this way of living.

It is a silly lifestyle to consider, but trying to find anything in the 400 to 700 Euro range is now starting to be a problem.  

How The Bavarian CSU Party Might Evolve

 For those who aren't into German politics.....the CDU and CSU parties....are 'brother-and-sister', with the CSU ONLY competing in Bavaria (the state), while the CDU competes in the other fifteen states. 

On 'leaning'?  I would suggest that the CSU leans slightly more to the right....than the CDU.  

So, it's a curious development of the SPD-Green-FDP coalition....they want to modify the election rules, and in a national election....if you didn't clear 5-percent of the national vote.....you'd get no seats (meaning the Linke Party and CSU folks might be out).  For the record, in 2021's election....the CSU crossed the line with 5.17 percent of the national vote (purely out of Bavaria by itself).  

Yes, the CSU folks are pretty peeved how this draft bill is written and voice some strong complaints.

Today, a journalist went out and suggested that the CSU might finally stand up and tell the CDU folks....they'd compete in another state or two (suggesting eastern German states).  The two states suggested?  Thuringia and Saxony.

Upsetting the CDU folks?  Yeah....I would assume that it's going to anger them.

In Thuringia....the Linke Party has a strong presence (2019 state election, getting 31-percent of the vote).  The AfD folks came in 2nd place with 23-percent, and the CDU Party came in with 22-percent.  

The CSU performs slightly more to the right on a number of issues, and I would suggest in a national election....they might split voters off from both the CDU and AfD folks.....probably getting around 7-points from each....getting around 14-percent of the states votes.

In Saxony?  AfD under-performs there, with 11-percent in the last state election and the CDU took only 28-percent (coming in 2nd place after the SPD).  Again, the CSU might be able to swing 5 points off both the AfD and CDU....getting 10-percent.

What this gears up?  National election?  I'd suggest that the Bavarian CSU folks could double their national trend with 10-to-12 percent.....stealing some voters from the CDU and AfD.  This would ensure seats in the Bundestag.  

I won't advocate this as being smart or clever.....just that you'd split voters from conservative paths existing already.   

Nukes Closer

 This weekend.....Russia's Putin said that he will move/station Russian nuclear missiles (I assume he means the tactical type) in Belarus....as a warning to Europe.

Is he saying all of them?  No.  He's just hinting that some will go to Belarus.  

Reality of this?  If some idiot were to push the button....the closer launch would mean a minute or two less warning time....if they were destined for Paris or Berlin.

A bigger worry?  Frankly, your stress level should be the same as it was....when the nuke missile was parked on Russian territory.

But over the next week....at least two or three German public forums will discuss this and freak Germans out over nuke warfare.  If you asked most Germans what they should do when the siren goes off, and some nuke incoming missile is bound for Germany?  They'd give you a funny look and think this was some comedy show.

Will someone bring up the quality or craftsmanship of the nuke missiles?  Well....yeah.  After watching events of the past year in terms of Russian-designed weapons failing.....I would imagine some people have their doubts that this means much of anything.

The one positive here?  If you asked a hundred Germans to identify Belarus on a map....fewer than ten could do it (at least prior to this).  So I would suggest that more than 50-percent will be able to find the country now on the map. 

How Much Is The Kraftfahrzeugsteuer (Car Tax) In Germany?

 The yearly car tax is dependent on the size of the engine and carbon monoxide emission.

For your average small-engine car....it's in the 50-to-100 Euro range.  For a motorcycle, it's in the 40-to-50 Euro range.  For a big-engine car?  It'll max out at 375 Euro.  

What happens when the E-car business takes off?  There's a bit of discussion from the Finance Ministry this weekend.....they'd like modify the tax formula in some fashion.  

Ax Attack?

 Some news chatter out of eastern Germany....aboard a train yesterday afternoon....regional train between Frankfurt (oder) and Cottbus.

What the cops generally say....some nutcase (not a terror attack) came up with a ax and started a disturbance.

37-year old guy....who boarded at the Polish border...simply started to make insults upon passengers.  Threats were made.  Then he whacked on the TV monitors and the inside of the train itself.  

At some point, he hit a 17-year old girl on the head (serious injury).  Then he was held till cops boarded the train.

I'll just say between drug/chemical use....you have an abundance of people self-medicating and there's a lot more threat of violence existing today (2023) than in 1984.

Five German News Stories

 1.  The firing of the Bayern soccer coach is still leading as topic number one today.  The assistant coach moves up a step...temporarily.  If they lose another game over the next month....I'd expect him to be released.  Team owners have put intense pressure on performance and winning....with a lot of capital spent on getting the right players.

2.  Some chatter (coming from Focus) indicating secret talks within ARD (the public TV giant) that they want to engage upon a massive TV-radio-media tax increase (going from 18.36 Euro a month per house) to 25.19 Euro a month.

It took an enormous amount of pressure on one German state about 18 months ago, to get the tax raised to 18.36 Euro.  This 'remainer' state bluntly said 'you kept promising to reform, and have done nothing to show for the past couple of years'.  

What they will likely say in public now with this chatter?  Inflation, and the cost of entertainment.  What the public will say?  It's finally time to reform, and evolve to a lesser service.  

3.  Danes are doing underwater video of the Nord Stream I/II sites, and have found a sonar-buoy type 'thing' next to what remains of the pipe.  They'd like to bring it up.  Russians are very agreeable and would even assist.

What the device might be?  I would take two guesses.  First, it could be a sonar-buoy having nothing to do with the explosion and may have been there for years.  Second, it's the device that set off the explosion, and has a 'maker' serial number on it....leading to a purchase.  

I'll just say....this might be rather embarrassing for some folks.  I'd expect it to be brought up to the surface within the next two or three days.

4.  Lot of NFL football hype on RTL (major German commercial network).  They will actually be broadcasting the NFL draft live.  Some indications that more games will be broadcasted.  A lot more interest in American football over the past 20 years.  

5.  Major railway strike for Monday.  All lines in Germany to be shutdown. 

Trucker Story

 For those who didn't know....Germany has (for years and years) a Sunday driving ban for commercial trucks (tractor trailer rigs).  On Saturday evening, you are supposed to park and be off the road by midnight.  If you fail?  A ticket (on the expensive side).

Well....there's a announced railway strike to occur on Monday...total halt to all trains.

The Minister of Transportation has gone to the sixteen state governments in Germany this afternoon and asked for them to bless a waiver for trucks to continue to operate on Sunday.  

Odds of this being accepted?  I'll just say it's at the last minute and in half of the states....it's not going to be appreciated to bring up this idea.  I'd take a guess that Bavaria and the Pfalz....will quickly approve the idea, but the rest are unknowns. 

App Story

 As of 1 June, the Covid App for smart-phones in Germany....will go into sleep-mode.  They aren't really cancelling it......just admitting that it's not being used much.

My humble thoughts on it?  

I never had it on my smart-phone (while admitting I had Covid twice).

The way it was supposed to work?  The App tracked where you were and if you were around someone who'd been diagnosed with Covid....I remember it being something like 1.5 meters....for a period of 60 seconds...then you'd get this 'warning' screen.  It said 'something' to the effect, you might need to go and be tested.

So you had no idea who the person was, or where you encountered them.  It have been at the dental office, subway, or Grandma's house.  

My wife (German in nature) did download it, and on three occasions....it alerted her.  I'll just say on the first occasion.....she got hyped up and we burned through two of the cheapo tests.....later confirming that she never had Covid.  The other two warnings?  They came and went, with less stress.....with no Covid passing to her.

The two times that she did have Covid?  These were at the office....where her phone was in her purse for the work-day.  

I won't say it was a success or failure....it had good intentions, and maybe with the technology angle.....it was of some use.

I kinda expected some PhD folks to rig up tests and validate the program after two years of use.  So far, no one has said much.  

What'll happen while in 'sleep' status?  Well...I hate to suggest it...but I suspect Covid version 2.0 will arrive in three to five years, and we repeat everything again.  So they will wake up the App, and just hope that things run smoother this time around.  

Numbers Story

 I did the bank loan numbers....if you had to renovate a house (like in the EU mandate talk) and install a new heat pump (as in the German mandate talk)....figuring total cost (roof, windows, insulation, doors, and heat pump)....to be around 50,000 Euro.

If you do the loan with the bank for 10 years, figuring average rates....it's around 550 to 570 Euro on your back for that ten year period.  If this were a rental house?  You'd pass the cost the renter.  

So if you did the normal rent numbers (figure 1,300 Euro in my village for a whole house)....rent would have to rise to 1,750 Euro minimum.  

If this were a condo deal?  By the time you average out the numbers for the whole building (figure 9 apartments)....originally renting for 750 Euro each (70 sq meter apartments)....you'd raise the rent to around 30-percent minimum (975 rent).  Where would the extra 225 Euro come from?  Most people don't have that much just laying around.

A massive inflation wave coming?  I'd suggest things in Germany will reach maximum chaos over the next five years, with people shocked how far out of touch that politicians were with the cost value of things.

I sat last night and watched a older retired German (probably late 60s).  He had the heat-tech 'kid' come over and do a full estimate of the house.  Both the tiles and old insulation would have to go....to reach these discussed heat numbers.  With the heat pump figured in....the estimate was figured near 50,000 but if you waited three to five years....the cost would likely escalate.  

The older German was just a regular guy.  I doubt if he brought home more than 1,500 Euro for his pension, and his apartment monthly rental 'income' probably was in the 600 to 700 Euro range.  There's no way he'll have the cash or the bank approval for such a loan.  

It's just the more you crunch the numbers and look at how both the EU and German governments figured into the ongoing crisis.....things simply don't make sense any longer.  

Sinking Story

 Last week, I watched the ZDF mini-series...'The Swarm'.  Basically.....some sea creatures have brained-washed other sea creatures to do great harm to humans.  It was a heavy dose of science fiction and avoided alien chatter.  In the very beginning these whales come up and destroy a tour-vessel.  

Yeah, it got your attention.

So this AM, I noticed some German news story.....Germans (4) on a sailboat...in the Pacific, and a whale comes up...peeved for some odd reason....destroying the boat.  It sinks in a matter of minutes.

Crew launches a lifeboat, and gets rescued around 10 hours later, but the freighter doesn't 'land' until ten days later.  

Why the whale attack? Unknown.  But it reminds me of the Swarm scenario for some odd reason.  

Q-and-A

 1.  How peeved are French people over the rise in the retirement age (62 to 64)?

On a scale of one to ten....I'd say it's near a '8' at this point.  Nothing has lessened this week, and there are protests planned for the weekend....with the French cops out in full force.

Next French election (for the Presidency)?  Set for summer of 2027.  Could that election be formed around bringing the retirement age back to 62?  Well....I would hate to suggest it but it might be one of the top three issues of the campaign.

2.  How peeved is the German Green Party over accomplishments so far in this coalition?

Well....the top level of leadership for the party is disenchanted and openly blaming their partner...the FDP.

Next federal election?  Unless this gov't falls apart...Oct 2025.  Lot of Green voters are scratching their head.....there ought to be serious topics picked-up and resolved.  It's hurting the 'brand' of the Green Party with the current situation.

3.  WELT pointing out the arrival of a bunch of T-55 Russian tanks into the 'front'?

Yeah.  You were already seeing some back in late 2022.  If you were looking on video feed for the more modern Russian tanks (like the T-72/T-80/T-90)....there are still some that appear but it's less often.

The one positive thing....a lot of of the T-55 and T-62 types....went to the depot and there's plenty of parts to keep them running.  

4.  WELT and their 'clueless' article this AM?

WELT sat down and examined all this talk about forced renovation and the potential mandate to hype the heat pump business.  In the end....a fair number of rental properties will reach a stage where cost creates an enormous burden.

So imagine yourself owning a 1950s built home, that you rent out for 900 Euro a month.  This EU-potential mandate comes up for renovation comes, and at the same time....the heat pump deal occurs....laying a cost burden on you (the owner) for 50,000 Euro.

You go and tell the renter that his rent is doubling up next year.  Well...he freaks out.  He can't afford 1,800 Euro for the house.

So one of two things happen.  Either this guy and family go homeless, or the cost burden is such that he bankrupts himself.  Impact on housing market already in turmoil?  Massive issues will come.

As WELT suggests....the government is totally clueless about the consequences about to fall into place. 

Five German News Stories

 1.  FC Bayern (soccer) fired their coach....Nagelsmann.  Front-page news.  Bold headlines.  

2.  Last night via ZDF's Maybritt Illner public forum show (live)....they had climate protection and the cost factor.  Green Party sent their chief (Lang).  From opposition was Premier-President of  Saxony (Kretschmer of CDU Party).  I'll just say they covered several topics and it was an awful rough debate.  Oddly, Kretschmer does believe that the Ukraine-Russia war will end one day, and over time....Russian export of Natural Gas to Germany will return to normal.

For Lang's comments....I'd say that selling all these mandates has a cost and she's not doing well on reassuring people.

3.  There's some rumor starting up that the German gov't would off you a 'discount' (bonus) if you had a older heating oil/natural gas home furnace.   Amount is not openly discussed.  

4.  Four subway stations in Berlin have been declared 'no-weapon' zones.  Cops even put screwdrivers on this list of weapons.

5.  Supposed to be a massive protest in Berlin this weekend....expecting 35,000 climate change protesters.  Weather for the day?  Showers mostly.  

Sweatpants Story

 In retirement (since 2013), I've adapted to one German standard....I tend to wear sweatpants in the winter, and shorts in the summer.  I'm not just talking about around the house....even when I go to the bakery or the local recycle center....I'm probably wearing sweatpants/shorts.  

I won't say all German guys go this way, but probably one out of every four...dress in this attire.

If you go back to the 1990s or prior....this wasn't the fashion statement for German retired guys.  It's something that has developed in the past twenty years.

So, I read this in the AM....some school up in the north part of Germany (Wermelskirchen region, NRW) finally had enough and decided to enforce the school attire business....forcing a number of teenagers to go home because they were in jogging pants. 

It's reached a point where a lawyer is involved and there's going to be legal business exercised.

Here's the thing....the news folks have kinda laid this out...it's not just boys involved....young teenage girls always were in the jogging pants fashion.

A new rule?  NO.  This has been around since 2019, and it's the first time that they said 'enough' and sent the kids home.

My gut feeling?  The 14-year old is probably hanging out with Uncle Frank and Opa....seeing them both hang out in the neighborhood....wearing their jogging pants....like me, and don't see a fashion problem.

What'll happen here?  Some judge will be dragged into this and read through a thousand pages of material....to say that nothing in the Constitution talks about jogging pants or shorts.  

Russia Discussion

 In the last hour, I watched a N-24 commercial news piece here in Germany.  Topic?  Russia.

So Medvedev (number two guy) has done a speech this morning and says that Russia will build 1,500 tanks.....this year (2023).

BS factor (1-to-10)?  Ten....solid.

Between the drafted guys in uniform or dead....jump-starting an entire industry like this and claiming you can get out a thousand-plus tanks?  Will never happen.  If they were really hopefull....I could see 300 simplified design tanks being built.  Don't count on advanced technology being built into them.

His big claim is that they'd have 3 shifts of people working on this.  Maybe if they brought in a quarter of the folks in the age group of 12-to-14....this might work.

Then he said this amazing thing....Russia will start to aim rockets/missiles at Berlin.

What'll happen now?  I would imagine some news people will ask....does Germany have a defensive system to prevent this.  The general answer?  Well....yes.  

If 30-odd missiles were launched at one time?  I'm not buying into the idea that all 30 could be 'blasted'.  

This suddenly getting to front-page news?  Yeah....it might be discussed by people a good bit.  

All that effort to hook the air-raid sirens back up?  Well....if you go to mid-2022....that was hyped-up to ensure the national system worked.  Not a lot of details were explained about this, but I would imagine that the leadership saw this missile 'warning' eventually coming up.

With all the climate change worries going on....this Russia 'attack' business is hard to place....higher or lower than climate change?

-

Q-and-A

 1.  Are diesel engines at the end of improvement over carbon monoxide?  

There was a business report on N-TV this AM and it talked to various tests having been done on diesel cars...using the Euro 5 and 6 standards.....results weren't that positive.

For the record, the EU made up the Euro diesel standards....starting back around 30 years ago, and had in their mind that every five years.....some breakthrough would occur, and things would just keep advancing.

Well....it's not rocket science here, but I'd say from the 2005 era on....there's been little to no advancement.  I'd offer the opinion that most of the technology has finally peaked out.  Even suggesting there might be a Euro 7 standard out there to be created....would just cause car engineers to start laughing.

2.  This rumor of the Economics Ministry having a 'summit' to talk wind-power?

Well....the rumor goes this way....Habeck (Minister over Economics and Climate Protection....wants a meeting where state governnments are dragged in and forced in some way to accept more wind generators.

Why are there barriers existing?  I would suggest it's not the state's faults.  Just in various communities around the nation....there's a growing anti-wind generator attitude now existing.  No one wants a generator within 2 or 3 kilometers of their neighborhood.  Various environmental groups have a negative feeling about the generators now.

Habeck wants a national 'let-it-go' standard where there's only certain things to prevent the erection of a wind-generator.  I doubt if the states will be willing to allow this.

3.  Rumor of a super-strike on transportation?

The rumor goes this way....all trains and buses throughout the country would shut down for a minimum of 24 hours.  Some people are even suggesting a 48 hour strike.  

4.  Is Reich 'threat' chatter occurring almost daily now?

I would suggest it's an odd thing....for almost a month now....there's some mention on the public TV news.

Various people have been arrested.  Some threats have been established.  If you bring up the topic...probably 90-percent of Germans will tell you they don't know anyone fitting into this Reich group. 

5.  More people than ever before....applying for hunting licenses?

WELT talked about the numbers....way up with 2022 data presented. 

6.  Head of the Health Ministry, Lauterbach, talking about more closures of clinics around the country?

In public statements over the past week, Lauterbach has suggested that hospital/clinic reform needs to be accomplished.  This worries a lot of Germans in rural areas that they may end up with no hospital within a reasonable drive.

7.  Why are there such serious problems in the coalition gov't of the SPD?

Basically, the FDP asked for three critical ministries when they said they'd accept the coalition deal.  They asked for the Attorney General position, Transportation Ministry and the Finance Ministry.

No matter what the Green Party wants to achieve....nothing moves without some say by the FDP position in these three ministries.  

I would suggest that one out of every three Green Party voters are fairly disenchanted at the lack of progress 'promised' by the Green Party and their participation in the coalition.

8.  Will the 49-Euro ticket talked about so much....starting 1 May....stay at 49-Euro?

Virtually no one says what happens in 2024.  Presently, something in the range of 1-billion Euro is being funneled to the sixteen states to cover the remainder cost.

I would probably suggest that by spring of 2024...the ticket will go up to around 69-Euro.  It would still be a 'deal'....at that price.  

Rowdy Kids Story

 I essayed earlier in the week about the vicious attack on a 13-year old German girl, by several 13 to 16 year old German girls up in Heide (NW Germany).  So Focus sent out a reporter.....talked to locals, and laid out the rest of the story late yesterday.

Parents around the city (21,000 residents) of Heide...have an opinion about a shopping area in one part of Heide....which they describe as a 'no-go' zone.  They basically tell their kids....don't go there....don't socialize there...etc.

Basically over the past year....a lot of unusual and violent behavior has been demonstrated around there....mostly kids attacking other kids. 

It's a bit unusual.  Usually, when you talk about no-go zones....you are indicating druggies or refugee young men without much control over their behavior.  This is a area where it's teenagers out of control.

I'm guessing by next week....several of the public TV forums will bring in people and openly discuss this. 

How Would the 'Last Generation' Activist Political Party Look?

 With this threat of the activists forming a party, there are three observations I can make:

1.  Out of the 2021 federal election, the Green Party took around 6.5-million votes (giving them around 14.5-percent of the national vote).  The SPD Party took around 12.1-million votes...giving them around 26-percent of the national vote.

Without a lot of polls or data, I would make a fair guess that the Last Generation activist-party could probably take around a quarter of the Green Party's 14.5 percent and probably around one-tenth of the SPD's votes....adding up to around to 5-to-6 percent of a federal vote.  It's enough to get seats and to make things complicated for a coalition situation. 

It's also enough that it weakens the Green Party and creates 'waves' in various state elections.

2.  Added to the list of issues....there's a SPD-led effort to lower the voting age from 18 to 16.

This would add around 1.5-million votes to the previous listing across the nation, and possibly bringing a higher count to my estimate (making them possibly up to 7 or 8 percent). 

The idea of the age thing being accepted?  So far....the FDP seems to be against it....as is the CDU-CSU folks.  I have my doubts that it can pass in 2023, and the SPD may be more fearful of influencing the activist angle.  

3.  Finally, to the central problem of the activists.....as much as AfD is a single-topic party....the activist party would have a limited number of positions.  I doubt if they could talk over pension reform, tax reform, or forty other central parts of political chatter.

I'm not suggesting success or failure if they proceed ahead....I'm just saying if they move to a party apparatus....it hurts both the SPD and Green parties.  

It is entirely possible that the Green Party would be weakened to the extent that they can't pass a 10-percent point in the national audience.  

Just another crazy path in German politics.  

A Potential New Election? Really?

 In recent weeks, you can view a number of examples where the current SPD-led coalition (with the Greens and FDP) are in serious disagreement.  

Headlining today via BILD?  There was an interview last night on ARD (public TV, Channel 1) where the Habeck (Vice-Chancellor, and Green Party member) got pretty dramatic and suggested that the participation of the Greens is reaching a breaking point.

What happens if the coalition falls apart?  Basically, the SPD would be given 1 chance to talk to the CDU (second place winner of the past election in 2021) and see if a coalition can be formed with them.

If not?  Well....we go to a new election in 60-odd days.  

How things are polling now?  The CDU would easily win with about 30-to-32 percent of the vote.  The SPD would be in the 20-to-22 percent area.  The Greens would pull 16-to-18 percent.  The Linke Party folks might not even each 5-percent....meaning no seats in the Bundestag.  The FDP is near 5-to-7 percent.  And the AfD is near 15-to-17 percent.

Frankly, I just can't see anyone in the Green Party thrilled with walking away and creating a new election.  

Added to this dynamic....there's talk of the 'Last Generation' activists forming a political party and possibly taking some percent of the Green votes.  

All of this leading to constant problems which didn't exist in the fall of 2021, and that no agreement existed for such problems?  That's really 90-percent of what people are openly discussing now.  

Three Headlines Off WELT This AM

 1.  German gov't is basically admitting a minimum of half-a-billion in fraudulent costs against the Covid era.  

Cases will be prosecuted but I have serious doubt that full recovery of the lost funds ever occur.

2.  Strong indicators that the heat-pump mandate (in draft form) won't be supported by the CDU, FDP and SPD. 

Some people suggest that the 'leak' occurred to put the Green Party and Economic Minister in a poor position with the public.  I'd say the mandate (forcing heat-pumps only, and eliminating natural gas/oil new furnaces in the future...past 2024) is now doomed.

3.  Some chatter going on for allowing non-Germans a privilege of holding two (or more) passports while becoming a German citizen.

The SPD/Green folks support the idea....other parties less so.  This idea hasn't been openly shared with the public and it's hard to figure how the average German would feel about this multi-citizenship idea.  

The Happy Scale

 Someone created a data-set for countries and 'happiness'.  There's this ranking....which generally says the happiest people in the world are from Finland. Denmark follows in a close second.

I've been to both countries, and would agree....folks seem pretty happy.  Course, there is a high taxation rate, and both enjoy pretty low crime statistics. 

So around number 15 comes the US....followed by Germany at number 16.

New Zealand was actually rated number ten on this list....ahead of Germany and the US.  I've been there (for the record) and would vouch that most people seem content...crime is low...and it's hard to find stress in people's lives.

The fact that Germany comes behind the US on happiness?  I would be asking questions over the poll questions, and if a fair number of Germans were polled....coming from highly urbanized areas of Germany.  If you had selected mostly Germans from small villages across Bavaria or the Pfalz....I would suggest 99-percent of German residents would give ultra high numbers on their feeling of happiness.

Were these Americans questioned....mostly from Texas or Idaho?  That's another question I'd ask.  

Is the happiness ranking bogus?  If you asked me questions over Germany, and ranked my happiness feelings....some would be ultra-positive....some would be ultra-negative.  I'd also say that my Covid criticisms from 2020/2021 would affect some feelings.  I'd also have criticisms (for the record) over the US.  

The final thing I will leave you with...out of the top ten countries listed....eight of them were European.  And France didn't even make the top twenty (#21)....which just seems pretty weird, but French people are always critical of things.  

Covid Story

My village (4,000 residents, on the edge of Wiesbaden)....since the summer of 2020...operated (allowed) a Covid-test center.  It was basically a steel transportable building that had a connection to the city power.  

This past month, without much of an announcement...it finally shutdown.  At it's peak (2021)...I would imagine they were testing around 150 people per day.  The company who operated it...made tons of money up to spring of 2022....then the gov't basically halted the 'free-testing' gimmick.  From that point, until the early 2023....I doubt if they tested more than ten people per day.   

On one day that I showed up for a test....there was some wedding party group (maybe 60 people who pulled up after me) and each had to be tested to meet the conditions of the wedding pair.

Rapid disappearance of the test centers?  If you drive around Wiesbaden....I'd say that 90-percent of the facilities have shut down since summer of 2022.  

A profitable gimmick?  From the original Turkish gal who operated our local center....I'd take a guess that she was pulling in 6,000 Euro a month as her income (she was there seven days a week....running from 8 AM to 6 PM).

The Prince Harry, Visa, and Drug Question

 It is an odd development over Prince Harry (residing in the US presently).  To get his visa approved....he had to answer various questions, and one was about the use of drugs.

In recent weeks, via his new book....the prince kinda admits to various drugs in his life....so some folks are asking....how can he be approved for a visa to live in the US.

I pondered over this....because I had to apply for a German visa...literally on two occasions (1999 and 2013).  In both efforts....never did use of drugs come up.  They did check my criminal background (non-existent) and want me to prove who I actually was.  Beyond that....it was merely a paperwork drill (around 15 pages of personal data).

Had I been a cocaine-user?  I don't think the German authorities would have cared.  If I had been some ultra right-wing type, or had a record for money-laundering?  Well...that would have been a big deal.

In the case of Harry?  I suspect this will be a mess for the US authorities to clean up and admit they just won't view the drug chatter.  If they did?  He'd have to go, and probably return to the UK.

It's not the end of the world, but obviously....his wife might feel otherwise.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  Last night, via ZDF (public TV, Channel 2), the Markus Lanz talk-show ran.  It's typically late, and I don't watch it.  After viewing commentary this morning....I went back to the media library and watched one part of it.

So the topic was the Green Party mandate on heat pumps, and the guest was Anton Hofreiter.  Hofreiter, I would describe as a fairly competent Green Party guy, and would give plus-points on debate skills.

However, this subject is hard to defend.

The key thing that Lanz went to....cost.  So, the heat pump idea revolves around 3 simple facts:

First, cost in general is figured at 30,000 to 40,000 Euro per house.  Nobody really debates that part of the story.  I'll admit for the typical middle-class guy....it's a fair amount of money.

Second, the government (mostly the Greens) say that they will help the consumer, hand them a discount or subsidy.....bringing the cost down to 25,000.  So if you think about it....they are going to crank up tax efforts to find 5,000 to 15,000 Euro.  That comes from the consumer....if you haven't grasped that angle.

Third, then they invented a number out of thin-air....saying only that 65-percent of homes need to meet this in the future.  Why 65?  I've yet to see a clear science or cost reason given to this.  If your home is more than sixty years old....the odds of the heat pump being a possible 'fix'....I'd suggest it probably isn't that wise.  

I guess I should add this....the heat pump consumes electrical power, so having a massive number of pumps installed...means power consumption across German will rise.  I haven't heard of the amount....but I would question where the power will come from.  

Anyway....this discussion on the Lanz talk-show didn't go well, and Hofreiter got pretty aggravated by the end.

2.  Next story is rather odd....it was brought up by Focus....the guys who install heat pumps no long answer phones.  Their schedules are full (for months)....so even if you had interest in a heat pump....it might be a full year before they get around to you.

3. WELT published a piece this AM....suggesting the hope of the 'Last Generation' activists to become a political party....has an element of criminal behavior.  A bit on strong language but they have a point.

4.  Finally, apparently the Credit Suiss people (the failed Swiss bank) handed out bonusses to employees and this has gotten into public news.  Lot of negativity.  It would appear the bonuses are now frozen until they can figure out another angle to this.

50 Year Story

 I live in the Wiesbaden-Mainz 'umbrella'....roughly 650,000 in the region.

Up until this year....we (at least in the Wiesbaden community) had existed with a mass transportation plan that had been formatted in 1973.  

Yes, for this entire 50-year period....plan 'A' had been the ongoing strategy that covered mass transmit in the area.  They'd never discussed having a review and improving things.  

Tomorrow night....there will be a plan discussion about evolving things, and changing the dynamics of mass transit.  

It's anyone's guess how radical this will be.

A big deal?  Well....there's going to be a few frustrated people because they'd rather just keep things going like they are.

Tipping

 I sat through and read a long piece on Twitter today...commenting about tipping in the US.  Someone was whining over their waiter job....tending to six people at the table for five-hour period, and the final bill was around $700, and they were only given $70 as a tip.  They qualified the place as a 'nice' place.

I contemplated the typical German higher-than-average restaurant, and where you'd pay around 80 Euro for two people, and the tip was in the 5 Euro range (5 to 10 percent in Germany is average and accepted).

Upper range place where you might be paying 300 Euro for two?  Yeah....30 Euro would be the general max for a tip.

I have to qualify the German situation....because pubs, cafes and restaurants have to pay minimum of minimum wage, and these days (after Covid's era).....most are paying at least 2 Euro over minimum wage because of the shortage of waiters/waitresses.  In the US, it'd be different.

If I tried to tip at the 10-percent or up around the 15-percent level?  My German wife would go nuts....give me a look at the table and then take over paying the bill herself.  Later, I'd get the lecture about tipping.  

The Issue With Public Forum Shows

 Living in Germany, you get a dose of this weekly.  To some minor degree...commercial German TV will offer some public forums.  To a great degree in their case....they will present a case (a family or a person) where here is a typical problem, then bring one, two or three guests....to lay out the normal pattern of issues. Members of the government?  It's less likely....they tend to bring on experts of the topic or real people affected.  

With public TV (ARD or ZDF)....they probably offer around five or six forums a week, and they run different formats.  In their presentation, politicians always figure into the talk in some fashion....from the left, to the right.

For me, it's often more interesting to view the Twitter traffic as the public forum show goes on.....where people present opposing views or more 'truth-bullets'.  

Where the public forum shows fail?  Typically, it goes to three issues:

1.  You try to bundle five topics into one single show....which often reaches a level of confusion.

2.  You bring in too many politicians....who seem to be less knowledgeable than real people.  

3.  The moderator loses control, or is focused upon something that seems to be of marginal interest to the general audience viewing the show.

How many Germans watch these forum shows?  It's never really shown on statistical numbers.   I would suggest a majority of Germans....probably over 80-percent would prefer watching a non-public forum show.  Among the 18-to-40 folks....I might suggest that most forum shows have fewer than 5-percent of society watching.  

My wife (German in nature) will watch the first two minutes, and then reach some make-or-break decision....either it's a discussion item of interest or it's crap.  

I'm not going to say that the forum shows really influence society or change opinions.  They might educate you more on the amount of issues....or at least give you a slightly better understanding.  

Use as a propaganda tool? Well....yeah, that is a issue to be dealt with.  It's probably why the majority of Germans aren't turned on or feel a need to view such shows.  The thought within ARD or ZDF?  I'd suggest that they try hard to find the right moderators, and make the show more educational and informative.  With the commercial folks?  It's pieced together to just give you bits of information and you end up forming your opinion....without the sense of it being propaganda.

I will say this in final commentary.....on certain subjects....you probably need public forums. 

Five German News Stories

 1.  Rather odd and violent lead story on page one of virtually all news groups....up in the Heide area (extreme north Germany)....some 13-year old girl was 'tortured' for several hours by a group of 14-to-17 year old girls.

They roughed her up...flicked cigarette ashes on her...and hit her around the nose several times.  

Some guy just passing the scene...stopped and just halted the crap.  Cops were called.  They've identified all of the girls and given them and their parents summons.  

A lot of brutality suggested.  Germans, I would suggest....are a bit shocked over the act and that it led back to young girls.

2.  WELT is suggesting this AM that the 'Last Generation' activists are now preparing to build a political party.

Where this will lead?  Well....mostly a young group....probably 'plucked' from the SPD Party and Green Party.  Neither will be pleased about this.  The idea that the SPD Party started up about lowering the age of voting to 16?  It would enhance this activist party....probably helping them achieve a 5-percent or more and thus getting seats in the Bundestag.

I've sat and pondered over this idea and would suggest that hard elements of the SPD/Greens already exist, and they aren't going to get their 'wishes' within either the SPD or Greens....so it makes sense to join the new party.  

3.  WELT had a piece this AM talking over a new study presented....showing 93-percent of German families are now concerned over inflation.  

4.  One of the 'Last Generation' activists (female, age 30) had a court appearance yesterday in Stuttgart.  Judge had determined the outcome at the end, and applied the sentence: no jail, but 1,200 Euro in a fine.

Well...as Focus told the story....the activist got up and lodged a complaint....it wasn't fair.  Judge listens....then applies 300 additional Euro on top of the 1,200 Euro....then proceeded with a lecture on the act of painting on public buildings.  The final warning from the judge....something along the lines of a repeat episode would probably earn jail-time.

5.  There's some draft law being formed, which says if you rent a apartment, and wanted to 'attach' or mount solar panels to your balcony....it would be your choice.  Meaning?  Some landlords have said 'no' to this activity, and it's basically taking away their authority on this matter....if the law passes.  

I'm guessing it will be passed over to some court later and challenged.  I'm not convinced that there is a damage problem....it's probably more about looks to the building than anything else.  

Based on docu-news segments....I'm not that convinced that the 2-meter by half-meter solar panels (easily installed) pull that much 'juice'.  You can probably run it into your home and supply power for your lights or recharging your USB items.  You certainly couldn't run a washer or microwave off the balcony panels.   

Three German Stories

 1.  I've sat and probably watched an hour of video clips from Mariupol, Ukraine of Putin's visit over the weekend.  

I'll just say he's fairly active for this visit....not run down or tired.  In one scene....he's actually driving the Jeep-like vehicle. 

Fake Putin or actor?  Well...it's just odd....it's the most action I've seen out of him in a year.  Even the driving scene seemed odd.  Usually, he's driven  everywhere and I bet he hasn't driven a car in twenty years.

2.  That 'Hart Aber Fair' public forum from last night has been on my mind.

It was a jumbled-up list of topics....all revolving around environmental causes of the Green Party.  The moderator....I thought....did a marginal control theme over this.

At some point, the Transport Minister (Wissing, FDP) uttered that he wanted more concrete proposals instead of getting "just climate blah-blah"....which I thought was pretty accurate with a lot of the BS you see.

The speed limit limit business?  Oh yeah, that got brought up.  The lack of facts over this?  Well....if you just go out and drive on the German autobahn system, you tend to notice that probably 75-percent of drivers don't exceed 130 kilometers per hour already, and probably half of the remaining drivers mostly stay in the 130 range.  So the idea of you saving CO2....is pretty limited.

I'll say for the hour....it was a pretty marginal public forum show and mostly a vehicle for climate 'junkies'.  

3.  Turks having their own version of Tesla?  Yeah, Togg.  

First T10X models are figured to be delivered in mid-summer 2023.

Cost?  47,000 Euro for the base model....with all features?  You'd have to double the amount.

I looked at the picture....fairly large-sized SUV.  They suggest the range at 320 km.  On luxury status?  If this were made in Germany, it'd probably be in the 100,000 Euro range.  

Occasionally, There Are Good German Refugee Stories

 Back in the summer of 2021....in Wurzburg....some refugee (Somalia guy) went nuts, and stabbed folks....killing three and wounding 3 others.

Eventually, the nuts guy goes outside of the shop (near the train station) and there....he's confronted by another migrant guy (from Iran).

The Iranian guy recognizes the threat and goes into protection-mode.....keeping the nuts guy busy, until the cops arrive...detaining the nuts guy.

Today, the refugee agency in Germany has approved the Iranian guy a stay (not forcing him back to Iran).  

Now a done deal?  Well...not quiet yet.  But virtually everyone admits that the Iranian guy went well beyond what you'd expect and you need to find some way to 'reward' the guy.   

Eight German News Stories

 1. Credit Suiss deal done....USB bought them for just over 3-billion Euro (originally starting a bid of 1-billion).  In addition, the Swiss National Bank gave 100-billion Euro to cover equity (doesn't appear to be a pay-back).  Share-holders?  It appears that whatever value each share was before.....60-percent was carved off or just dissolved.  

Is the crisis over for Credit Suiss?  Well....as long as all the under-water crap is 'dumped'....yeah.  A lot of this 'saving' goes back to the Swiss National Bank having 100-billion Euro to give away, and hopefully.....this doesn't occur again in ten years with USB failing. 

Fees for accounts likely to increase?  I wouldn't be shocked if you see this within sixty to ninety days.  

2.  Focus had some story which might be 50-percent BS.....suggesting that the Kremlin is in some active mode to find a 'recruit' (replacement) for Putin.  Putin, I would suggest, has to be approving this.  

3.  Over the weekend, the Ministry of Economics came out and said 'panic-planning and panic-buying' over this perceived EU mandate for home renovation and the suggested German mandate to end new natural gas/oil heating systems....should be halted or openly discussed first.   

Kinda funny.

There's a lot of hype going on, and the Ministry is responsible for 50-percent of it (the EU for the remainder).  

A curious note here....if I were a 15-year old German kid looking at apprentice opportunities...man, there's a hell of a renovation wave coming over the next ten years and you could be in the perfect position to participate and profit off the wave. 

4.  Just an odd Anne Will public forum show from Sunday evening.  Topic?  The German military and where they stand on competence.  

I'll just say a fair amount of the discussion came to the pro-peace/anti-military 'slant' on things.....not to go and waste a lot of money on military hardware because you might be tempted to enter into a conflict.

If you go and review the social media commentary....I'd say it was well over sixty-percent making a stand for the limited expenditures and not to get into a military conflict.

I should note....Anne Will is an intellectual forum, and the bulk of Germans are not watching it at the 9:45 PM slot (would suggest nine out of ten German viewers are watching something else...from zombie thrillers, to soccer, and perhaps game-shows).  

5.  WELT published an interesting piece over the weekend.....suggesting in theory....you could be holding a 400,000 Euro home as an investment vehicle, but because of the ongoing renovation mandate talks with the EU and the German talks on heat pumps, with escalating natural gas costs...the home you currently own might really only be worth 250,000 Euro (losing a third of its real value).

Bogus?  No.  It's a legit discussion on how these mandates will go, and home values are bouncing around.  Today, I would not want to be holding a 150 square meter 1985-built home requiring 60,000 Euro of renovation by 2030....just to hold current value.

6.  This video release of Putin visiting the Donbass region of the Ukraine over the past couple of days?  From the four minutes that I watched....it was a heavily constructed propaganda visit and you get the sense that he wasn't that thrilled or pumped up. 

7.  Officially, we are around four weeks from the final absolute turn-off of nuke power in Germany.  Anti-nuke power folks are pepped-up.  Don't worry....their mission in life just goes to the problem of France remaining nuke power enthusiasts for decades to come.  In theory, when the shortage does come for the Germans....they will pay/buy French nuke power (biting their lip).  

8.  Another bus strike situation for Tuesday in Wiesbaden.....total shutdown for the entire day.  Garbage guys going same way.

Facebook Story

 The Hessen Data Protection officer for the state gov't level wants all gov't agencies to shutdown their Facebook pages.  

Response?  Virtually all of the state/municipal agencies have 'declined'.  The response goes along the line that this is how local governments can pump their announcements out.  

At the end of 2022....around 44-million Facebook accounts existed across Germany.  I can only speculate that most Germans will browse or check their account at least once a week.  There's no factual data on this that anyone can cite.

The Data Protection officer may have a point, but you'd have to ask how important or critical information gets out in a city or village these days, and the best answer is Facebook.

Where Thing Are Headed

 Once you bundle escalating energy prices, EU-mandated home renovations, the German gov't E-car mandate, and the suggested heat-pump replacing oil/natural gas heating....can the typical mid-grade German afford this....all at the same time?

Over the past month, I've pondered this.

Maybe if your wages were 40,000 Euro a year after taxes....you might be able to dump vacations for five years, and really skimp out on the 'little' things.  But I suspect that in five years....the bulk of society will be disgruntled about what is demanded of them.

The people who marginally bring home 20,000 Euro after taxes each year?  They are royally screwed.  

The current EU crew and SPD-led coalition?  I don't think they've added up the cost to a typical family.  

So I'm suggesting that as months go by....the AfD Party will politically place themselves as the 'savior' (crappy phrase to use) for the common man, and attack both the EU and the SPD folks.

It won't be a pleasant period, and a lot of resentment will be built up.  

Avoiding?  I think the bulk of the political system is charged-up and see this all as a crisis period worth creating.  

German Tourists And Their Thrill Tendency

 Back around 20 years ago, I was in a 'huddle' with several Americans who made criticisms about German tendencies to go off into dangerous situations, while on vacations.  This came up after a couple of German tourists got into trouble in Yemen. 

My wife (Germann in nature) has voiced this comment on various times as well.  In her mind, Germans tend to believe that it's the 'other' folks (like Americans or Brits) who get into serious consequences.  

I sat this AM....reading through a German news story from the Gaza Strip.  A German couple (they leave out the age)....were off on vacation (I assume to Israel), and ventured with a rental car into the Palestinian area of the Gaz Strip.  There, the car was attack by Palestinian young men with stones.  

The car?  Windows broke....tires looked flat.  The two were chased a bit.  

I guess they got support/help from some Israeli soldiers and required some medical attention (probably more the shock of being attacked than anything else).

I had a co-worker once who agreed to go with a German couple out to the western part of the US.  He was kinda the guide/driver in this episode.  On their top ten things to see?  Well....they wanted to see Death Valley.

Before the trip....he tried to persuade them to abandon this idea.  No....they were really hyped up to see it.

So he's at some hotel on the route, and he wants them to leave by 7 AM....to get the bulk of the trip done before mid-afternoon.  No was the response....they felt leaving around 10 AM would work out.  The heat shock (mid August) as they stopped a time or two....became an issue.  They survived, but this was a worthless experience in the end.  

Germans who got to Cape Town, South Africa....then get on some township tour?  Same way.....they seem to want this element of danger.  Same way with Germans  who rent a car in Namibia and try to drive on their own in rural regions.

There has to be some element in the culture where rational thinking just disappears and acceptance of thrills takes over.   

Political Trends?

 Focus published up a INSA survey (nationally of Germany)....if elections were held today:

- CDU / CSU with 28-percent

- SPD with 21-percent

- Greens with 15-percent (yeah a significant drop over the past year)

- AfD with 16-percent (a fair gain over the past year)

- FDP with 8-percent

- Linke Party with 5-percent

INSA rarely gets polls wrong and is fairly accurate.

As for where the trends are going for the Hessen/Bavaria state elections in the fall?  In both cases.....the CDU or CSU will end up as the primary winner.  

Why is AfD trending up?  A fair amount of public chatter is going on about the war and anti-Russia/pro-Ukraine position taken by the SPD-led coalition.  

Why the Greens are trending down?  A fair amount of criticism has occurred lately over the draft laws (suggested by the Greens) openly discussed, and cost impacts to the middle-class.  

Eating Out Story

 The wife and I ate out last night, at a local German restaurant in the Wiesbaden region. 

Prior to Covid, this place would have had ten tables filled, with two to four people at each table.

Saturday evening last night?  We sat there from 6 PM to 9 PM (when they closed)....there were never more than three tables filled at any single time.

Sign of the times?  Just in general, with the economy stalled, and people short on money.....everyone has cut back on dining out.  

This place can probably survive a year or two with this drastic cut in profits, but eventually....they will have to shut down.

We saw the same thing about a week ago....at a Turkish pizza shop in the area.  We walked in, and found one single table (out of a dozen) with people sitting there....on a Friday evening at 5 PM.   There would usually be eight tables filled, with half of them teenagers with their friends.  

Seven German News Stories

 1.  Kinda funny....via Focus, there's a page-one mention over Germans now hyped-up for 2023/2024 to suddenly get a new natural gas or oil heating furnace for their house....since the gov't is pursuing a ban on new furnaces of this type after 2024.  The quote is "If you ban something, Germans will definitely buy it."

No one can cite numbers but if you went to use normal yearly replacement figures for furnaces.....I would imagine it's going to be double for both 2023 and 2024.  

2.  In Switzerland, there's supposed to be a special meeting between the Swiss Federal Council, USB Bank and Credit Suiss Bank today (Sunday)....to iron out details for Credit Suiss to be bought.

Chief issue?  USB is laying down a requirement that Swiss government cover 6-billion dollars of a 'guarantee'.

If they merge up?  Well....there's this odd problem that pops up.....10,000 Suiss bank employees probably will be let go, and this would create a problem for the Swiss economy.

Is this a done deal?  No.  No one in the Federal Council has said much about the six-billion-dollar 'promise'.  

Explaining the Swiss Federal Council?  It's the executive 'arm' of the Swiss gov't.  It's a group of eight, and they have a fair amount of power to stand over a subject (if they all agree).  I would question how they feel about promising up six-billion-dollars.

3.  WELT has a interesting piece talking over home-construction permits.  There's been a collapse or rapid decrease in the last couple of months on permits.  Shift in mortgage rates partly to blame....plus inflation....plus the economy.  

4.  WELT pointed out some new fashion trend in Germany....where women are wearing panties as 'outerwear' (no pants).  It's probably a Berlin thing.

5.  SWR talked up a discussion item.....deposit fees for wine bottles.  There's just so many types of bottles used for wine....it'd be awful hard to see how this idea advances.

6.  There was a wedding situation down in Dunningen (B-W) where the local gun club want to have a 'shoot-off' (I would assume like a 21-gun salute).  Something went wrong with one of the guns, and the guy (late 50s) had 'burns' on his face (serious condition).  Fair unusual.

7.  Has the coalition gov't been formed in Berlin (the city) from the election?  No.

Remember, the CDU won the election and were in two potential coalition scenarios (CDU-SPD or CDU-Greens).  

Apparently, one of the major SPD 'clubs' in the city has said no....they don't want themselves as part of this CDU coalition. 

I won't say it's a drama, but if these talks falter.....it can only lead to a CDU-Green coalition (it's not the end of the world).   It does bear mentioning....it's possible no coalition can be formed, and another election is set into motion.  

'Forbidden-To-Enter' Letter Story

 I'll just tell this story 'as-is'....came up early in the past week on N-TV.

Up in Gelsenkirchen (NW Germany), they have a train station.  It's not a big huge place like Hamburg or Frankfurt, but sizeable.

A drunk couple came up on one of the platforms.  Guy is in mid-40s....gal was late thirties.

Train pulls up near this platform, and the 'driver' notices that the two are engaging in physical sex (not just kissing/smooching).  It's suggested that the folks at this end of the train also got a 'dose/view' of the action. 

Train driver calls the police.  I guess he felt it was a duty in this case.

Cops arrive.  They approach the two....instructing them to 'halt'.  No one says the wording or the way they approached the two.  It might have been blunt words....it might have been just a request.

The couple got a bit disturbed....started to act aggressive toward the cops.  Part of this alcohol influencing their actions.  

Cops end up arresting them, and there's some charges for public nuisance.  There's probably a second charge of railway safety operating rules (I would imagine).

So here's the odd thing....the two were given a 'forbidden-to-enter' note from the station folks.  They aren't supposed to come near the property.

Usually, you only get notes like this for sports arenas or stores.  Yeah, for a train station, it's a bit unusual.  Out of a hundred places where you might engage in public sex and not get some 'forbidden-to-enter' note.....this railway station would be one of the last places I'd want trouble.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  Focus wrote up a piece this AM....talking over 2030, and the lessening production of cars in Germany.  They 'suggest' that 4-million fewer cars will be built in Germany, and a massive amount of production will shift to China/US.

Big deal?  I doubt that the politicians have fully grasped the number and this will create a huge wave of disgruntlement.  

2.  Arrest warrant for Putin?  On paper now, it exists.  However, you'd have to show up in some country where they would enforce the warrant.  I just don't see Putin traveling that much.

3.  Where is this draft electoral law going?

Several issues: (1) The right to vote is openly discussed for federal elections....dropping down to 16.  If you openly discuss this....it's pretty split among Germans, and I might even suggest some want the law to drift back to age 20/21.  According to law, you'd have to change the Constitution, and that requires a two-thirds mandate.....presently, there's more than enough votes to prevent this.

(2) There's text in the draft to suggest that only an equal number of men and women can be in the Bundestag.  So if you won 120 seats....you'd have to have 60 women to fill these seats.  Nothing said over Trans, and if they'd get representation.

(3) The number of seats in the Bundestag would drift from 736 down to 630 (not the 598 originally suggested). 

(4) Both the Linke Party and the CSU Party would be kicked out.  You'd have to get 5-plus percent in a national election....to get seats.  The CSU, for the record, exists only in Bavaria.  

Lot of hostile feelings over this mandate.  You'd end up with just SPD, FDP, Greens, CDU, and AfD in the group of 630.  

Passing rate?  I'd give it less than a 50-percent chance.

4.  Some NATO report out....suggesting 1,500 Russian soldiers dead each day over the past month.....in Ukraine-Russia war action.  BS-factor?  Just a single week with near 10,000?  That's hard to believe.  There's also a rumor that ammo-wise, Russia is now having issues.  

5.  UBS trying to buy Credit Suisse bank?  Well.....there is this rumor.  Presently, Credit Suisse is in a crappy position and probably at the lowest value of the past forty years.  

How Serious Do I Take The Break-Up of Russia?

 A year ago, it would have been near zero-percent.  Today?  I'd say the break-up is probably nearing the 40-to-50 percent level.

Oddly, I've noticed at least six different maps being published around....which goes to the idea of Russia being carved up.  Some give it 8 republics....some give it five republics.....some give it 20 republics.

So, you have to come to the first issue....does anything happen while Putin lives?  The answer here is a solid 'no'.

Putin has to be removed from the picture, and there has to be a significant coup going on where more than two opposing views (like the Oligarch crowd versus the military crowd) form up.

Is any of this really positive?  I would argue that you have five essential safety issues that need to be resolved:

1.  The ICBM discussion.

2.  The naval fleet nuke discussion.

3.  The friendly neighbor discussion.

4.  The NATO conclusion discussion (if there is no Russian threat any longer).

5.  Will this break-up just lead to a 'lets-unite-Russia' theme?

I would imagine at least a dozen CIA analysts sitting there daily, and discussing the idea, and how functional any of the new republics end up.

The happiest people in this discussion?  Map-makers.....just about everyone will require a new map, and there's tens of millions to be made.  

Three German News Stories

 1.  The Maybritt Illner public forum show ran last night (Thursday, 10:15 PM).  Interesting topic....where the cost issues lie with immigration, and how it relates a great deal with the Ukrainians who've come in (1-million roughly).

Pretty fair and balanced.  A lot of this extra cost is related to school activity and trying to help the Ukrainian kids get a successful education.  

Who wasn't on the panel?  Oddly....the federal gov't folks.  State and city opinions were laid out.  

2.  Interesting story being told from the Freiburg stadium, where a soccer game was held.  Number of fans (appears to be a dozen)....had knock-out drops put into their drinks.

Game was from last Sunday afternoon.

Cops are investigating, but no suspects at present.  

3.  From France, a suggestion of a no-confidence vote.....over the Presidential 'order' to push retirement from 62 to 64.

Mental Issue Report

 I sat this afternoon watching commercial German news, and N-TV brought up this health report....from a major health insurance company.

So what they say....across Germany....people are having sleep issues, sadness in their life, depression and crisis situations.

Increase over 2020 numbers?  Yeah.

Related to Covid?  No one really says that.

What the health insurance did say....for each 100 people in general.....301 days of sick-leave are going back to mental issues.

My humble view?  I think Covid had an emotional toll on just about everyone....from kids to adults.  I also think that as much as you can say Covid is over.....the affects of isolation simply continue on.

It'll be curious if the numbers sustain themselves for a decade.  

What Macon Did For Pension Age?

 There was a draft bill in France going around to bring the national age for retirement from 62....to 64.  

Lot of pressure building up, and some speculated that the votes wouldn't be there.

So Macron whipped up a special power that he has.....to just proclaim the age 64.  Done.

Infuriating people?  Oh yes.

Likely to be challenged in court?  Yeah.

The question will be....does he have this power?

Germany watching this?  Well.....currently the age in Germany is 65 years and 7 months.  Around 2029, it will go to age 67.  

I'll just say that most Germans are highly negative about the age going up, and probably half would prefer to see it in the 62 year group.....if this was a serious and physical job.  

Q-and-A

 1.  What happens when some European country (within NATO) hands fighter jets to Ukraine?

First, lets be clear....there just aren't going to be that many Ukrainian pilots around who might be able to step in, with say 40 man-hours of orientation training, and fly these fighter jets (say the F-16 for example).

Second, Russian will absolutely make the targeting of such jets....either in the air or via a parking ramp, a top priority target.  If it takes ten attempts....fine.  So I seriously doubt that ten of such jets...last more than a week.

Third, as much Russia might BS people, I doubt that they have more than a hundred pilots that might meet the qualifications capability of a two-thousand NATO pilots presently.  So using them...to go after the donated jets....might not be that smart.  You could end up with a quarter of these qualified Russian pilots shot-down, and captured.

2.  On this murder of the 12-year old kid in NW Germany, by two of her friends (age 12/13)....have they found the knife?

No, and that's one serious part of the story left untold.  The two guilty parties ditched the knife...somewhere.

3.  How much crap is Germany giving France over the plan to build more nuclear power plants?

A lot.  Macon is not going to be pushed around.  So the wish and desire for Germany to have a nuclear-free zone in Europe....is a joke.

4.  Is there some kind of hydration-cult now existing in Germany?

Well....WELT brought it up and I won't disagree with it.  You see an awful lot of Germans who walk around on train platforms, shopping areas, etc....with a water container. 

At least once a month on some health 'chatter', you will see or hear the reference....'Sie müssen zwei Liter Wasser pro Tag trinken' (you need to drink 2 liters of water per day).

In the fitness center I go to twice a week....I probably see a quarter of crowd lugging around a half-liter container and hydrating about every 15 minutes.  I stood in some store the other day, and here was a sports-type 'jug' (2-liter size) near the check-out stand. 

Some Germans are taking this serious.  Some take it as a joke. 

You need to drink 6 glasses generally....of liquids per day (juice, coffee, tea, water).  I would agree, if you were awful active, and it was a warm day....2 liters  make sense.  It's just that some Germans now seem to hydrate around the clock now....on buses, while waiting for the train, etc.  That's the part that just seems out of place.

5.  Is there some push-back going on with the pronoun-gender stuff?

Yes....you can use Baden-Wurttemberg as an example.  They are trying to get a referendum up...for the public to vote on....to deny changed gender chatter.  

I'll just say that for about 50-percent of the public....they can't make sense of the need to change the German language for gender situations.  

6.  Is there a problem brewing with the sixteen German states, and the refugee business?

You have to qualify this.  The states aren't saying end acceptance....they are saying that you have x-amount that require housing, language training, and welfare payments, then you need y-amount of money flowing into the system.  

Who is the controller of the funding?  Well....the German federal government.

You would think that back in 2014/2015....the federal guys would have sat there...grasped the total financial impact, and rigged up a credit account where you know of half-a-million people in this status, and they cost you x-amount per month to finance.  Yet, this doesn't seem apparent.

A couple of the states have stood up and said....that's it.  If you can't finance us more, we won't accept anymore.  

The German Draft System

 For the record, from roughly 1956 until 2011....Germany ran the draft system for young men.  In 2011, Germany moved to the US-type program, where there was enough incentives to entice people.

Is there some wording in the Constitution to bring back the draft?  Yes....this is continually brought up.

Is there some manpower issue going on?  If you follow the news reports....basically since Covid....there's been lesser numbers, with various discussions on how you can bring in more people, or improve the image of the Bundeswehr.  

Oddly, the Bundeswehr has brought in both public and commercial TV units....to show more of a positive image.  I'd say in the past 12 months....I've probably watched four shows that talked about the life and mission.

My general gut-feeling (at least within this German discussion) is that money/pay isn't the big attraction....as much as training, adenine-adventure, and some path to early retirement.  

Seven German News Stories

 1.  Cops have said....over this dead 12-year old girl (killed by her two friends....age 12/13)....that the victim was 'mobbed' for several weeks prior to the murder. 

Mobbing?  Basically being picked upon or bullied.  You see this a good bit in school discussion groups.

At one point, the victim told her parents.  That was the turning point where the other two girls decided to murder her.

2.  There's low-level chatter going on with the European Central Bank....about a housing crisis and potential bank crash.  

As bad as Germany might be....several other countries (Netherlands, Cyprus, and Greece) are in a more difficult position,.

3.  Not a big deal (perhaps) but the IAEA folks have said that ten containers (holding a total of 2.5 tons of uranium) have disappeared in Libya.  Yes, you could make a nuke bomb from the material.  All the IAEA is saying is that they can't find the containers....not that they were stolen by some evil 3rd-world dictator.  

4.  Credit Suisse survives on....with a loan of about 50-billion Swiss Franc's....from the Swiss National Bank.  

5.  Saxony's Prime-Minister (Kretschmer) is now calling for a migration/asylum 'limit'.  Other states are in line, but insisting that either more money comes from the federal government of Germany, or a limit is established.  

6.  There's a law in Germany that says....if you were convicted on something and simply fined (no jail).....you are given x-amount of time to pay.  After that...failure to pay?  You are jailed.  

Well...in recent hard times....the money isn't there and people have been picked up to do jail-time. 

The SPD-led gov't wants a draft bill which would change the wording on this law. 

I read through a lot of this, and it's interesting.....in about 90-percent of convictions in Germany for 2020.....it was merely a fine, not jail-time.....given.

Curiously, the rate of cost for a day in state prison?  120 Euro.  So if you had a hundred folks who failed on the fine business and took them off to jail for 30 days....you (the state) paid 360,000 Euro to quarter the 'bad-boys' in jail.   

You can do the math....if your fine was 1,000 Euro or 30 days in jail....the 30 days would cost the gov't around 3,600 Euro.  Only rational way to 'fix' this....cut the fine cost down one-third of what the law stipulates currently.  

7.  I was watching ARD news this AM.....interesting piece.....one out of every two new bikes sold in Germany now, is an E-bike.