Friday, March 24, 2023

Numbers Story

 I did the bank loan numbers....if you had to renovate a house (like in the EU mandate talk) and install a new heat pump (as in the German mandate talk)....figuring total cost (roof, windows, insulation, doors, and heat pump)....to be around 50,000 Euro.

If you do the loan with the bank for 10 years, figuring average rates....it's around 550 to 570 Euro on your back for that ten year period.  If this were a rental house?  You'd pass the cost the renter.  

So if you did the normal rent numbers (figure 1,300 Euro in my village for a whole house)....rent would have to rise to 1,750 Euro minimum.  

If this were a condo deal?  By the time you average out the numbers for the whole building (figure 9 apartments)....originally renting for 750 Euro each (70 sq meter apartments)....you'd raise the rent to around 30-percent minimum (975 rent).  Where would the extra 225 Euro come from?  Most people don't have that much just laying around.

A massive inflation wave coming?  I'd suggest things in Germany will reach maximum chaos over the next five years, with people shocked how far out of touch that politicians were with the cost value of things.

I sat last night and watched a older retired German (probably late 60s).  He had the heat-tech 'kid' come over and do a full estimate of the house.  Both the tiles and old insulation would have to go....to reach these discussed heat numbers.  With the heat pump figured in....the estimate was figured near 50,000 but if you waited three to five years....the cost would likely escalate.  

The older German was just a regular guy.  I doubt if he brought home more than 1,500 Euro for his pension, and his apartment monthly rental 'income' probably was in the 600 to 700 Euro range.  There's no way he'll have the cash or the bank approval for such a loan.  

It's just the more you crunch the numbers and look at how both the EU and German governments figured into the ongoing crisis.....things simply don't make sense any longer.  

No comments: