A year ago, it would have been near zero-percent. Today? I'd say the break-up is probably nearing the 40-to-50 percent level.
Oddly, I've noticed at least six different maps being published around....which goes to the idea of Russia being carved up. Some give it 8 republics....some give it five republics.....some give it 20 republics.
So, you have to come to the first issue....does anything happen while Putin lives? The answer here is a solid 'no'.
Putin has to be removed from the picture, and there has to be a significant coup going on where more than two opposing views (like the Oligarch crowd versus the military crowd) form up.
Is any of this really positive? I would argue that you have five essential safety issues that need to be resolved:
1. The ICBM discussion.
2. The naval fleet nuke discussion.
3. The friendly neighbor discussion.
4. The NATO conclusion discussion (if there is no Russian threat any longer).
5. Will this break-up just lead to a 'lets-unite-Russia' theme?
I would imagine at least a dozen CIA analysts sitting there daily, and discussing the idea, and how functional any of the new republics end up.
The happiest people in this discussion? Map-makers.....just about everyone will require a new map, and there's tens of millions to be made.
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