'Unity' stood out.
So, what they are desiring are special groupings.
If you came from a country (non-UK) with no swimming opportunities....you should come by.....that's the invite.
Does this include EU people? Well....NO.
Russians? Probably not.
What is funny here...on these evenings (6-7 PM)....the complex is off-limits for Brits.....for not only the pool, but also the spa, sauna, and steam room. The non-Brits are the only ones entitled to the complex.
1. For the past month, I've been in the process of replacing the TV in the bedroom....with the German TV tech sales guy trying to sell me on a smart-TV situation.
So far, he's been to the house twice....having major issues in getting the TV to connect to the satellite dish splitter.
It just seems like all this 'smart-TV' chatter....is mostly BS. I don't even want it connected to the house WI-FI network. Just get me 12 freaking channels off the satellite.
2. Just an enormous amount of chatter this week of property tax increases (more than doubling what they were before). Communities are in desperation mode....with budgets overflowing, and no ability to cut budget.
3. Interesting throughout this week....on German public TV....a lot of public forum shows with Health Minister Lauterbach appearing. Chief-cheerleader for Chancellor Scholz? Well.....after a while, you get the impression that the moderators are doing their part to give favorable views of the Chancellor and his success stories (what few there are).
1. A study was done in the Frankfurt 'shadow' (within 20 km of the city), and they announced that there is simply not enough 'park-and-ride' parking lots in the region.
As shocked as they seem to be....this is something I could have told you in 2004. Now what? Well....they will talk around the idea of adding a thousand-odd parking spots near the stations on the outer 'ring' of the city....put a cost value upon it....grumble as they fight a budget process, and maybe in ten years....actually add another thousand-odd parking spots (when they really needed 3,000 to 4,000).
I'll just add....some story around Mainz and Wiesbaden....both of them need more park-and-ride space.
2. There's talk in the state of Hessen to adding a ski-jump area to the Willingen region (2 hours north of Frankfurt).
Cost factor 13.5-million Euro.
Belief is that it'll bring the thrill-seekers (like a magnet) and pay the high-Euro cost to 'jump'.
3. Economic numbers out for Germany for 3rd quarter.....slightly down.
4. Interior Minister for Germany says she wants the EU to absorb more Ukrainian refugees in the future. Meaning? She wants the EU to have a plan, and distribution lay-out.
Odds of this being agreed upon by the EU? I'd give it a 50-50 chance.....with the signed document taking a minimum of 12 months to produce.
5. Habeck gave a speech yesterday, and just hinted in some form.....'yes, there might be a natural gas shortage this winter.'
Without the Russian natural gas pipeline....nothing is really dependable on the flow of natural gas.
6. The AfD Party (right-wing) has spoken up and said that they aren't in favor of a 'draft' for the German Army. This had been on the promise-list for a year or two....that they would support the idea.
7. Talk is that as Monday comes around.....the SPD Party will formally announce Chancellor Scholz as their candidate for the Feb election.
If you bring up this topic with Germans.....most don't really see Scholz in a thrilling way, and would prefer someone else. But it is the party itself who selects the candidate....not the public.
1. I'm a believer in Socrates statement: "Strong minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Weak minds discuss people."
2. On a skeptical-index (1-to-10)....I'm probably pegging daily around a 8 or 9. I'll take a red pen to virtually every single story I'm told.
3. As much as I'm attached to technology and new gadgets....I'm also stressed by the amount of processes required to make them function 'as advertised'.
4. One of the big positives for me living in Germany....is the 4-star train system. As much as people grumble that it's chaotic, not on time, often having non-functional toilets, and crappy unsafe train stations....I'm still pro-Bahn.
5. For every German who is hyped-up and positive over public TV chat-forums....there's probably a dozen Germans who can't stand the format or dialog.
6. I have this problem of assessing people in public view....on safety-issues, threats, nut-case values, low IQ, and drug-or-alcohol use. It's to the point, I'm hyper to get up off a park bench and leave if things don't look right.
7. I would probably drink three Espresso coffees daily....if I didn't apply 'control'.
8. I've pretty much maxed-out on Marvel stories. It hasn't reached the Star Wars level yet (I won't even watch).
9. A dozen times a year....I find myself calculating prices from Euro to Deutsche Marks, and just shaking my head over escalation of cost in Germany....compared to old West Germany.
10. You can't convince me that Bitcoin has any value.
Chaotic day yesterday (Thursday). Fair number of the top level of the SPD Party in Germany gathered up this week....discussed who to support, and Chancellor Scholz got the 'nod'. So the prime 'other' candidate....the Defense Minister....Pistorius....announced that he would NOT be offering his candidacy.
Public enthusiasm? Mostly went to Pistorius over the past six months. There was a public TV poll last weekend...listing the public's ranking of the top ten political figures. Number one ranking? Pistorius. Second place was Merz of the CDU. Ranking for Chancellor Scholz (SPD)? Down to number ten. Various other political figures ahead of Scholz.
Public feelings may side with Pistorius, but it's a party thing.
If you go and pull up polling presently...the SPD sits in 3rd place (around 16-to-17 percent).....behind the CDU (33-percent) and the AfD (19-percent).
If you ask me how the numbers will go over the next 10 weeks (till the election in mid-Feb)? I think the SPD will slip three points....to the 13-percent level.
Who gains the three points? Could be the Greens.....could be FDP....could be BSW, and s fair possibility that the Merz/CDU crew...might gain them.
Here's the key discussion....after the election, who does the CDU-CSU build the coalition with? With a weakened SPD....it means you need a 3rd partner. The only alternate scenario here is that Merz catches on 'fire', and the CDU-CSU surges up to around 40-percent (hasn't happened for the CDU in years).
So entirely a new political landscape existing for the election. If you were SPD-minded....you probably lost some enthusiasm by last night.
I sat and watched German N-TV news this PM. Item came up with a curious footnote.
Germany has a requirement presently....they need concrete to build an entire new 'Berlin-City' every single month....for the next 40 years.
All of this is causing a 'crush' on C02 numbers (world construction is taking up 8-percent of C02 emissions....meaning destruction of the planet, and DOOM to mankind.
I hadn't really thought much about it.....but when you mix up concrete....you have to heat up limestone to 1450 C, and presently that's a lot of fossil fuel.
So they are inventing a different substance called Biochar.....thus skipping a lot of this heat requirement.
The odds that this won't be as 'holding' as concrete? Well....they didn't really say much to give me a good feeling. I can just see...in 30 years....some building built with Biochar collapsing, and suddenly everyone is desperate to get gone from this type of building built this way.
A cup of mulled wine/Gluhwein will run at the Christmas market at Berlin's Breitscheidplatz.....7.50 Euro this year. Reason? Both operational and food costs have gone up.
Yeah, it's crazy....two folks sitting for a brief cup of heated sweet-wine....paying 15 Euro.
A decade ago.....in Wiesbaden....I would have stopped off daily and had a cup. Economically-speaking....I'm probably going to limit myself.
Now....if you bring up that a bottle (enough for four cups) is 4 Euro.....then the frugal guy would buy the bottle...get some heating element (2 Euro)....and skip the Christmas market experience.
1. Not front-page news but another Sundhnuksgigar volcanic fissure occurred near the town of Grindavik in Iceland (far SW part of the island).
This town area is closed off....people have not been allowed to come back.
2. Health insurance company in Hessen reviewed data and projected within the state of Hessen.....33,000 young people are depressed. Age group? Five to twenty-four. Mostly females (more so than males). No explanation given.
3. Ford-Germany talking about cutting 2k jobs in Germany.
4. Linke Party (far-left) has decided to go with 3 candidates for the Bundestag Chancellor situation in the Feb national elecction. The three are: Gregor Gysi, Dietmar Bartsch and Bodo Ramelow.
The idea? The three will split off....doing speeches all over the country. The belief? Well....they think they can re-capture interest and get the minimum of 5-percent on the vote.....thus getting seats in the Bundestag.
Odds? They are fairly well known, and capable of taking back voters from BSW. I'd give them better than 50-percent odds of this. If so...BSW not getting seats, then the party is 'finished'.
I would also say this....Gysi is one of the best 'talkers' in German politics.
5. Thuringia state coalition agreed upon: CDU, SPD and BSW.
6. State of Saxony is experimenting with schools. New concept.....no grades. Most all parents criticize the program.
7. Abortion is will one of the twenty-odd discussions in the election build-up. Currently, paragraph 218 of the Constitution says only if health dangers are noted or the victim of a rape requires one.
It would appear both the SPD and Greens are pushing for a new text....that abortion could occur up to the 12th week. The CDU-CSU are pushing to keep the old text in place.
A big deal? Well....they've copied/pasted from the US election discussion. The problem I see....German women are hyped-up on birth-control....probably more so than in the US. I don't see this topic being a top-ten situation.
8. NY Post printed up a story....leaked documents from Germany. Headline: "Germany prepares for WW3!"
What the documents suggest? A planned movement of 800,000 troops to be put into place if Russia responds to NATO strikes on its territory.
From what I read....it just reads like a 1980s NATO-Warsaw Pact type plan....that some idiot copied and pasted for some present use.
Who would make up the 800,000? I would assume mostly US forces (active duty, NG, reserves)...maybe one-third of the 800k. The rest from the UK, Spain, France, Germany.
This scaring the crap out of people? I'd say in the past week.....tensions are way up.
To explain the German election in detail.....it's a race really to see who comes in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place.
Under current polling....there's no doubt that the CDU-CSU will win...probably in the 32-to-34 percent range.
Same polling says 2nd place is AfD (the right-wing guys) with 18-percent roughly.
Presently, the SPD, with Chancellor Scholz....is said to be in the 16-percent range. If they flip over to Pistorius....the belief is a 5-point gain....getting close to 21 percent.
Then you have the Greens....presently in a crappy situation....around 11-percent.
The Linke, FDP and BSW parties (at least this week) are figured to be 4-percent each....meaning NO seats and no chance to partner up.
Since we know that the CDU-CSU can't partner with the AfD.....under this win situation (Pistorius as the candidate).....there can be ONLY one single scenario for the coalition...and the SPD is it.
However, lets say that Scholz convinces the party to let him run. Presently, a CDU-CSU-SPD coalition would not meet the 50-percent requirement.....thus meaning a 3rd partner (obviously the Greens) must be included.
That waters down the CDU-CSU promises and makes for a weaker gov't.
Lets say that both the BSW and FDP manage to get 5 to 6 percent each in this scenario....each might end up as the 3rd partner instead of the Greens.
If you asked Merz of the CDU....he probably would prefer Pistorius to run and just deal with one single partner situation.
If you asked Scholz....he probably would prefer a CDU-CSU win, but with a weaker coalition....with 3 parties in this coalition.
The public stamina at present? They want change....with Scholz out of the picture. They need a finance-friendly crowd.....taking on the VW problems and ceasing the recession.
So it's just as important.....who comes in 2nd, 3rd and 4th.
I was stationed in Germany in the mid-1980s.
There was down in the Heidelberg/Mannheim area....this Army Warrant Officer who'd gone and bought a 10-year old Jaguar. No one ever spoke of the condition of the car....just that it was a 'beauty' and worth in the $6k range for what he bought.
A week or two into this ownership....problem #1 comes up...with the car going to a shop and around $200 spent.
A month passes, and another maintenance issue pops up....some amount of $500 was spent.
Another month passes, with another issue....in the range of $500 to $600 spent.
At the one-year point, the guy has spent upwards to $9,000 (1984 dollars) on maintenance.
One day....between Frankfurt and Mannheim.....the car stalls on the side of the road. The guy was in a fit of anger.....just imagining another $100 for the tow, and probably $1k for the garage.
He opens up the gas-cap....there on the autobahn, he puts a rag into the tank opening, and lights it up.
Yep, the car is set ablaze. Traffic was backed up for miles.
German fire department comes (with the police). Basically nothing they can do....other than detaining the Army guy and clearing the junker away.
No one ever said if there was a mental eval on the guy, or if charges came up. Several folks commented that the fire department folks probably handed the bill to the Army, and they probably deducted something from the guy's pay-check.
1. I talked about the breakage of cable (2 incidents, Germany to Finland, and Lithuania to Sweden) from a day ago.
Well...about a dozen hours ago....the Danish Navy/Coastal Patrol intercepted a Chinese freighter, with a Russian captain....that they believe was responsible for the breakage. Ship has been boarded.....little reported after that point.
2. SPD Party now admitting they have limited open-days on their calendar....to have a meeting and determine who the SPD Chancellor candidate will be for the Feb fed-election.
I would suggest that dragging this out to mid-or-late December is negative for the party. Scholz still believes he's the top-dog for the candidate position.
Just in general, no one really expects at this point for the SPD to win (currently in 3rd place on polling). With Pistorius, they expected a 5-point gain, and safely in 2nd place.
With the numbers required for a coalition....if Scholz remains the candidate....the SPD won't cross more than 16-percent of the vote, and the CDU-CSU would require a 3rd partner (making this a mess).
3. Half-a-meter of snow expected shortly in the states of Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg.
4. Around 100 current/former upper-level managers within VW....are suing the car company over cuts in salary/pension.
Public TV in Germany wants a 60-cent per household raise on their fees.....which the states (the 16) have declined.....mostly telling the public TV folks to restructure to save money.
So it got noted today....public TV is taking the case to Constitutional Court (Karlsruhe).
They want them to 'order' the states to raise the fee.
The text of the Constitution really spelling out the way of handling this? No.
Three states have openly stepped in and said 'no' to the increase. Part of this negativity goes back two years ago....where the sub-network....RBB (the Berlin channel) was caught up in a massive corruption scandal....trust was lost then.
What could happen? The court could say 'no' to the raise.....then the public TV folks could start to sell more advertising for the 8:15 PM and later TV programming (something that doesn't happen now).
A majority of Germans now grumbling over public TV? I'd say more than half have heartburn over the fee business, and the way that the networks function.
I should note this as well....current statistics show three-quarters of homes have some type of streaming video service....up 13-percent over 2021.
N-TV in Germany did a report on the Ukraine-Russia war....from a different prospective. They noted....it's not really a 1,000-day war going on.....that Russia has been engaged in some conflict on Ukraine soil for almost 11 years now (if you count the Crimea business).
The German journalist pointed out....a lot of Russians quietly point at this, and then silently grumble. They really don't see the 'gain' but no one wants to say much against Putin.
The fact that a fair sum of Russians have left the country over the last the 3 years? This is never clear about the number. Some analysts put the number at 1-to-1.5-million. Some say it might be closer to 2.5-million. Some Russians left, and quietly came back 6 months later.....some of those folks even left a 2nd time (you might have to count them twice in some funny way).
It begs the question....even if the war ends....how does Russia restructure its economy and regain economic numbers?
Well....I watched RTL TV this afternoon, and they've done a poll across Germany.
ONLY 4 parties have more than 5-percent of numbers.....CDU/CSU (33-percent), AfD (18-percent), SPD (16-percent) and Greens (11-percent). FDP, Linke and BSW were 4-percent or lower.
Shocker? The recession, economy, and general trends.....lead to a majority focused only upon these four parties.
BSW? It's mostly former Linke Party folks and some lefty-disgruntled folks who were former SPD voters. Beyond that....there's not a lot to attract folks.
I would suggest the race stays mostly in this trend....SPD gains a few points....the CDU likely wins, and this is mostly about how you build a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD.
The odds that the German SPD Party will meet....discuss options, and vote to have Pistorius as the candidate? I'd now give the odds.....100-percent chance. No one is eager to enter the election, and run Scholz as the candidate.
On how it changes numbers? The SPD presently...is sitting at 16-percent (3rd place)....behind the CDU at 33-percent and AfD at 18-percent. The Greens are at 11-percent. BSW? At 6-percent. The rest? All beneath 5-percent...so they don't 'rank'.
With Pistorius....I'd give a five-to-six point rise...mostly taking a point or two from both BSW and Greens. This worrying the BSW? If they fall beneath 5-percent....they get zero seats. So yeah, I'd be worried. I'd also be worried at the Green position....if they fell to 8-percent.
This creating a coalition.....CDU/CSU and SPD? I'd say that with confidence, and that Pistorius is given vice-Chancellor, and probably the Finance Minister job.
All of this....changing public perception and staging 2025 as a recovery year? Yes. And add to it....the Ukraine is likely to end in some fashion....with Russian natural gas turned back on by the end of 2025.
Generally, I've always hyped up this suggestion for Americans in Germany....dress appropriately and not to get attention to your nationality. I've probably said this for well over 30 years. Don't go out to say 'I'm-a-tourist.
In this remark for Jews and gays? It's going to draw a fair amount of criticism. But things are no longer like they were in the 1990s.
This being a political lightning strike for the 2025 fed-election? It'll be discussed but I can't imagine it being a top twenty-problem (at least not yet). The economy is still at the top of talking items.
The comical side of this 'problem'? Well....on the pro-Palestinian side of events for the past year....a fair number of the pro-people....were German gays....giving their support to the Arab position. It's been that way in France, Netherlands, the UK, and the US. Each time that the news people featured this....I kept thinking...sooner or later....the gay crowd will end up as a target.
Just looking inconspicuous? Nothing flashly.....no bright colors.....no leather jacket....nothing expensive....just look like an average low-income German (you don't have to wear jogging pants, or a Scorpions t-shirt).
Also, in 90-percent of German towns (everything that is NOT metro-urban cities).....you are 100-percent safe. That's the funny side of this story....the 'dorf-people' aren't participating in the threat.
1. Green Party mass-meeting held over the weekend in Wiesbaden. Fridays-For-The-Future 'leader'....Luisa Neubauer....gave a farewell speech for the outgoing Green Party leader Ricarda Lang. Toward the end of it....she then spoke about Robert Habeck's "natural gas euphoria"...peeving him a good bit.
One should note....the Green Party is fairly divided and for each party member who is endorsing and hyped-up over Habeck....there's probably another member who grumbles over party policy.
2. Health Minister Lauterbach did some long 'lecture' to a long-Covid victim....but the victim's mother countered Lauterbach...pound by pound.
3. Intense effort by the Chancellor to ensure medium-range missiles provided by the US/NATO are NOT used. US gave some permission over the weekend.
4. Two undersea cables broke....one between Finland and Germany....one from Lithuania and Sweden. Culprit unnamed....some belief it's Russia, but zero proof so far.
5. Entrepreneur Carsten Maschmeyer spoke out yesterday in an interview over the collapse of the government. Very negative views of Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) and Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD). Generally, on commerce and economics....Maschmeyer is a qualified expert. A fair number of people have grumbled over the current economics trend in Germany.
6. Police commissioner of Berlin spoke yesterday....agreeing....'yes, there are NO-GO areas within Berlin.'
To be honest, if you had me a list of the top forty cities of Germany....virtually ALL of them have some NO-GO element in existence. I'd even say that for Wiesbaden (if you want the prime location to buy crack/cocaine/etc....walk north out of the train station (across the street)...about 500 feet, where the 'gardens' exist....there's always three to five dealers standing there).
7. One AfD Party member has openly said he'll vote 'FOR' Chancellor Scholz in the NO-Confidence vote. This has triggered some speculation that all AfD members might go this way, and halt the early election emphasis going on presently.
I call it BS....but factually speaking....if all AfD members vote for Scholz to remain....then the early election is defeated and we go to Sep of 2025. This would be craziest outcome you could imagine.
8. WELT had a piece this AM....talking over the massive drop in used E-car prices. To some extent.....they just aren't selling off the lots.
9. Austria in serious trouble over lack of natural gas. Some payment discussion started up between Austria and Russia, with the court siding with Austria's version of facts. Russia said fine....we will cut you off.
Various natural gas transport ships have been diverted (I count 7 so far) to dock around Europe, and deliver more costly natural gas to Austria.
10. Saudi Arabia is being geared up for the 2034 FIFA soccer cup. Fifteen stadiums to be in the mix. They were apparently the ONLY applicant for the selection.
11.'Hart Aber Fair' public forum show last night via ARD (live). Topic? Covid, and it got pretty intense. Lot of things said....that weren't public information things in 2020/2021. What I expect in 2025? Probably some new gov't truth-commission....to uncover Covid details.
Wiesbaden, the city, has this plan set up...to convert an area on the SE side of the city....from open farm-land....to a suburb....to be called the Ostfeld district.
If you asked me about how long this plan has been 'running'.....I would imagine ten-plus years.
How many people would end up in this new district? Well....minimum of 10,000.
So around a year or two ago....an environmental agency filed a lawsuit, and engaged in on the plan to halt the plan entirely. There were various reasons given....too much water to be required.....nesting grounds....urbanization....etc.
This past week....the state court stood up and said 'no'....there's to be no halt to the plan, and then issued a statement....there's to be no appeal. Well...naturally, the group has said they will go and appeal to the Constitutional Court....attempting to delay things another year (unless that court immediately says you have no appeal power).
How long will Ostfeld be delayed in the end? The city kinda believes they could start up the project in 2025, and have it done by 2029.
I expect court challenge after court challenge to occur. It'll shock me if the project gets done even by 2035.
What you have are two interesting issues now confronting the nation.....a fair number of Germans are attempting to prevent/halt urbanization and a fair number of Germans grumbling about the lack of affordable housing. Both groups are using political parties to even the playing field.
In the Wiesbaden case....once this district is done....the city population will likely be in the 310k range. I would also imagine that as much as you might think Ostfeld is the end-point....there's probably five or six more bulk projects being discussed....each in the range of 5k to 10k new residents.
I sat and read through a UK news piece. Topic? Teachers now involved in washing student's school uniforms...because the kids (really their parents) are not paying attention to demonstrated poor hygiene.
Translation? I sat and tried to get this understanding. The article didn't really get into 'juicy' details. I generally assume....the kid has just one single uniform (because of cost) and the family doesn't wash clothing that much (maybe once a week).
So this story leads around to schools installing washing machines (no idea how you'd detail this for budget requirements)....then teachers involved in the art of washing clothing.
All of this...circling around poor hygiene? Yeah, smelly kids.
See....they didn't say all kids...just some kids....in some schools.
The belief with the teachers is that if you had a stinky smell....you probably are more isolated from your school-buddies. I can agree with this....but just left wondering....what's the stink-level of the kid's room in the house?
A German would look at this conversation and just start wondering.....how far into the 3rd world are things getting.
1. Chancellor Scholz called up Russia's Putin yesterday....had a hour-long chat. Just by the way things were described.....lot of encouragement thrown at Putin...just to end the war.
2. N-24 piece this AM....talking over how the SPD Party, Greens and FDP are trying to present themselves to Merz of the CDU....in being a future coalition.
3. Green Party holding big meeting in Wiesbaden this weekend....preparing for the election. Charged-up behind Habeck as their candidate.
4. About a year ago over a the Frankfurt Airport....they laid down what you'd go a hi-tech runway surface. At this point, a year later....it's referred to as a 'tire-killer'.
5. Since mid-2019....if you bought a European-made car....it has to have E-call in it. It's an emergency system, that alerts authorities with a 'beacon', and supposedly will 'save' you (debatable). It was a EU mandate.
So here's the thing...it's not something you can turn off. And if it's broke....the car system registers it as a failure point and you are supposed to have it fixed.
What most folks don't know.....while it's attached to your car battery...there is a back-up battery. Some folks have gotten a 'problem' sensor warning (rather new car) and the mechanic upon checking it....says 'yeah'....your back-up battery is screwed up...then noting it's a Chinese low-grade battery.
6. There's some talk of a Dutch coalition collapse....with the recent riots involving Muslim youth and the pro-Palestinian business. Some elements of the coalition want a deportation rule put into place. Last-minute efforts to halt this type of discussion. If the riots were to continue....you might see more of the collapse talk.
7. I watched a N-TV piece this AM....talking over home prices, and energy efficiency being a hot subject now. Some belief that if you have bad numbers on efficiency....you probably will see a 20-to-30 percent drop in value of your German home....forcing you to upgrade or lose value.
1. Yesterday, some association connected to German roads....came out and advocated for a national autobahn toll system....saying there's not enough money to keep them in 1st-class condition.
I spoke to my German wife on the issue....who went ballistic. They already collect gas taxes for this, along with registration fees was her response.
2. Just a lot of chatter (social media) over the Chancellor being cancelled-out by his own party (SPD). Yes, the party itself could hold a no-confidence vote, and ease him out rather quickly. But I doubt they have the guts to do that.
I'll just say....from a public prospective....very negative public attitude about the collapsing gov't. Lot of people just want Scholz gone...ASAP.
3. 'Heavy' snowfall projected for next week (Koln to Berlin)....starting Tuesday. National storm. Related to a approaching hurricane from the Atlantic.
4. Some chatter now....Germans don't want the normal voting day to be in Feb (for the future elections). Except for the mid-1990s fed election....it's typically always in the Sep/Oct timeframe. My guess is that the parties will agree after this election....to postpone the next election (2029) until May/June.
Presently, the Germany Bahn Monthly Card....running at 49 Euro (till 2025) allows you complete access to all buses and normal rail service (not high speed rail)....over ALL of Germany.
Theres a budget problem existing....where the 2025 money is NOT secure (the card was supposed to rise to 58 Euro in the new year).
What existed before the card? This is an interesting question. You'd go to your local train-station and spend around 95 to 110 Euro for a card that was a regional-only travel deal (bus and train in the package).
The politicians felt people would love to have a cheaper card....so they invented this special rate....not really explaining that your tax money got dragged into supplementing the card. So in a normal year....you are giving the gov't around 500 Euro, which they inject back into the rail/bus system....giving you a cheaper 49 Euro ticket.
You feel good about this....but you also question....why they had to make it this crazy....screwing you on taxes....to get a cheap monthly ticket.
What happens in January if this budget problem isn't resolved? No one talks much about this, but the reality is.....the monthly ticket would go back to around 100 Euro a month....ceasing the cheapo-ticket.
People have started to talk about the possibility that the Constitutional Court system will toss the Solidarity tax code...going back to 2020. The odds? I've watched three finance guys since yesterday discuss it, and they suggest it's three-quarters 'chance' that it's dissolved. So the big question in this scenario?
When the SPD-coalition changed the wording/text in 2020....there's been tens of billions of Euro collected, and if the court says it was wrong....the question is....do you force the coalition to repay the tens of billions, or do you just wipe the past out?
Does the SPD-coalition have the tens of billions? No. It's already spent.
The court might say....here's a two-year period to repay the money (probably with interest)....but that would trigger a massive discussion over how you tax the general public.....to pay this bill.
Could you dissolve this mess, and just wipe out the tens of billions? Yeah....but that would trigger more legal stuff in court.
The victims here? Well....the ultra-rich are the primary folks who paid the Solidary tax.
The timing of this now.....with the collapse of the coalition? Well....yeah, this is a odd timing situation...making the SPD look crappy.
So you might want to view things over the next week as this decision is handed down.
1. CDU's 'boss' (Merz) talked up the idea of bring back the 'draft' to Germany, in some limited way.
2. IAEA chief says it's obvious that Germany will return to nuclear power in the future.
3. Berlin Green Party folks are talking up the idea of women-only compartments on subway cars.....because of harassment.
4. More warnings of rainfall in Spain.
Depending on where you stop....there are probably forty different terms used (often confusing). Starbucks is one of the worst examples, but premium German shops are just as bad.
Some advice for the novice drinker....if you order the double-espresso....expect a perk-up or a alertness situation for the next hour or two. Don't be stupid and do two double-espresso situations in one afternoon.
Also.....comparing a regular German bakery and a Starbucks....you are better off (saving money and getting same quality)....at the German bakery.
1. What happens immediately after the no-confidence vote?
Each party has a weekend meeting....hears speeches from people seeking to be the candidate of the party, decides upon the candidate, then prioritize roughly 20 top things as the 'platform' (the promises).
As much as you think the candidate really matters.....the platform is equally important.
2. Are smaller parties (the 30-odd group) at a disadvantage with no-confidence situations?
YES. They work better with a scheduled vote....six months into the future. So a number of folks are predicting a low-turn-out for them in this case.
Footnote: at least three minor parties will get 500,000-plus votes....yet get no seats in the Bundestag.
3. Locally, how does the preparation for the vote work?
The chief clerk for the village, town or city will prepare a letter....to be sent to each adult of the region. It'll be mailed six weeks prior to the election.
It'll say you are invited to the election. Your polling station is located in such-and-such building on this street. Hours of operation will be listed. Then if you are gone or wish to early vote....it'll give you details how to handle this (absentee ballot).
As for you being prior-registered....there's a law that says as you move into a town...you have 30 days to visit the city hall.....giving them your address, and providing info from your national ID card. Even if you move from one building to another (say one block away)....you have to register again.
4. Aren't most Germans 'pre-set' on party to support?
Generally....70-percent of Germans support their party and don't flip. From the remaining 30-percent....people will say they will vote for a left-of-center situation or a right-of-center situation. Greens, Linke, BSW, SPD....considered left-of-center. CDU-CSU, FDP, and AfD are considered right-of-center.
5. How many Germans will go to the smaller parties instead?
Well....statistically, one out of ten Germans will vote for a smaller party.
6. Should a non-German engage in political chatter with Germans?
Just to a limited degree. Once you start a conversation, in a charged-up period....this talk might go for an hour.
7. Are there many TV ads?
No....nothing like you'd see in the US. You typically see a lot of signs....announced rallies...speeches, and some TV interviews.
8. Are polls accurate in Germany?
Unlike the US....polls are in the 95-percent level correct. So when you get a week prior to the election and they give you the numbers....it won't be off by more than 2 points on election night.
9. Will there be German-Hollywood type idiots advocating for candidates/parties?
HELL NO.
10. Aren't the 'platforms' the key element to getting votes?
Generally true. It says a lot about what people are focused upon.
11. Do you have to be a paying-member of a party....to have a say in who the Chancellor-candidate is?
Yes. Non-members have no say in the candidates.
12. How much negativity does Chancellor Scholz presently have?
Polls say about 75-percent of the public are seriously negative/frustrated over Scholz.....to the level....he has to go.
13. Who ends up as vice-Chancellor?
As you build the coalition after the election....you divide up cabinet posts, and your 2nd place 'winner' gets the alternate Chancellor seat.
14. If the election occurs, and the winner cannot find a partner in the coalition?
Well....by the book, it says then that the 2nd place winner gets four weeks to attempt to form a coalition. If that fails....the book says have a new election. This has never reached this level of problems...in German history. I would only worry about this....if the AfD Party won the election.
1. The story came out yesterday....the gov't pays out around 500-million Euro a year....on child-credit....that goes outside of the German nation.
Yeah, there's going to be questions, and I would imagine at least a quarter of this is fraud in some way. Going to be a lot of Germans grumbling about how this could happen.
2. 23 Feb 2025 is the day of the fed election (concrete now). This no-confidence vote? Approximately four weeks away (16 December).
I'll just say from the public prospective.....they want the national vote NOW. From working-class prospective....I'd say 75-percent are of this mindset....no need to wait.
3. This report of a planned Xmas attacck? According to investigators, the alleged attack plans of a 17-year-old Islamic kid from Elmshorn in Schleswig-Holstein. Tip? Apparently came from NSA (US). I should note.....he was born in Germany....not an immigrant. Turkish background....living in a apartment with just mom.
Will be charged as a juvenile criminal....no more than 3 years in a prison for teenage 'lads'.
4. German Army was set to promote 900 officers....presently CAN'T....because of lacking funds that didn't come through in the budget. Those folks are shaking their heads over how screwed-up this is.
5. I was in a German hardware store yesterday.....old-fashion potbelly stove on sale....159 Euro. Cast in Turkey. Interesting but the only folks who'd buy this are probably those with garden houses.
6. Gabor Steingart wrote up a commentary or Focus....centers on Olaf Scholz probably not likely continue as Chancellor of this country....come Feb 2025. Over the next four weeks, I think this will be talked about more and more.
7. Is the current German fed-budget screwed up? Well....they haven't passed the updated budget....so it's missing 12-billion Euro from special programs for 2025. Since SPD and the Greens don't have the votes.....the money can't be 'printed'.
8. Butter price escalating? People are now talking about 4 Euro, for what was 2.5 Euro just two years ago in Germany.
9. Berlin stadium is offering several million to the NFL to host at least one game...maybe two games...in 2025.
Wouldn't shock me in 2027....if the NFL held eight games a year in Germany (between Frankfurt and Berlin).
Surprising amount of interest now...games covered on RTL on Sundays. You can fill Frankfurt's stadium easily.
10. If you go to strictly working-class Germans....I'd say 80-percent are pretty sure on Merz being the next Chancellor....but the same crowd would toss their hands up when talking about the make-up of the coalition....saying either they can't handle another SPD partner, or a Green Party partner. No choice in the matter.
11. Ford-Germany going to short-hours. What this means? Typically, it's a gov't program where the employee had 38 man-hours a week before, and is now working 16 to 20 man-hours, with some compensation provided for the lost hours. Reasoning here? Well...the E-cars aren't selling.
If you ask all of the German car companies....same story....by Xmas, I expect most all car companies in the country to be on short-work. Even if you offered a gov't credit (say 5,000 Euro)....I don't think it'll change public perception on e-cars.
12. The Russian Duma (Congress) is going to criminalize propaganda talk about going childless. Lot of worry over depopulation in Russia.
Last night as ARD (public German TV, Channel 1) ended the 8 PM news (at 8:15), they went to a special 'Brennpunkt' 45 minute show. These are typically unscheduled, and in the emergency knowledge format. During the Covid-era....they would run 2 or 3 a week....minimum of 20 minutes. So last night was the special to explain Trump to the German public.
For about nine months....they've (ARD, the network) been busy telling German public that Biden (and later Harris) were guaranteed to win. Hence....as Wednesday morning came last week....it was a shock to 99-percent of German society....that Trump won.
If you viewed social media...it was more like 90-percent in this belief, and a fair number of conservative/right-wing types....weren't buying into the ARD 'theme'....at least by what I could view.
So as the special news piece ended.....you came away with three opinions that ARD wanted get you fixed upon (remember, they were already wrong about the winner business):
1. Trump is bringing in 'dark-knights' as part of his cabinet and team.....people you shouldn't trust.
2. Trump will destroy or at least hinder the US economy.
3. Ending the Ukraine-Russia war with a Trump-solution may not be a good thing....in the way they suspect (by the think-tank people that ARD interviewed in the US).
After a while pondering over the details....I came to two conclusions. First, as much as ARD got wrong already for 2024....they have a proven record of getting getting things wrong, and you shouldn't expect that to change. Second, there are a fair number of Germans (particularly under the age of thirty), who are disgruntled about public TV, and what they 'provide'. I don't worry about them much from last night....they were probably watching some zombie-series on Netflix or a soccer game.
The one odd thing I've learned over the past year with public TV.....every time you have a 'talking-dog' come on.....you ought to spend three minutes looking over their career....who've they've supported, and what think-tank pays their salary. It's 50-50 odds that you are getting a slanted view of the situation, and wasting 12 minutes that could be better spent.
Anyway....just remember....the evil-Trump can be eventually defeated. Keep the faith.
Chancellor Scholz? I would imagine the SPD Party will push the guy out, and Pistorius (currently the Defense Minister) will be selected as the chief candidate for the party. Expectation? Expect a 'bounce' of four points (plus).
CDU-CSU? Merz has everything lined up.
Greens? Habeck.
BSW? Sahra Wagenknecht.
AfD? Weidel.
For the lesser parties....I wouldn't waste much time pondering over them.
It's primarily a two person race....Pistorius versus Merz. The economy, recession and crime will drive the agenda.
1. Some agreement is starting up between Chancellor Scholz and Merz of the CDU Party. Election day is to be either 16 Feb or 23 Feb. It is in the midst of winter, and it wouldn't shock me if harsh snowfall affected things that day.
2. Poll done on support by Germans for the Ukraine militarily......57-percent of Germans support the idea. Among eastern Germans? Less so....near 40-percent.
Politically, it'll be a problem for the SPD and CDU parties in the campaign.
3. Poll done....only 1 out of 3 Germans want a CDU-CSU and SPD gov't as the coalition.
4. A major German printing company says printing the ballots is not a big deal...it's just that the timing here is around the holiday period, when most workers would be off for 2 weeks. There is no shortage of paper, as some have tried to suggest.
5. State of Thuringia is having a discussion....mandating a language test before you enter school. Clearly a road-block situation for migrant-kids.
6. The Flensburg public prosecutor's office has detained a 17-year-old from Schleswig-Holstein....kid was planning a Christmas-market attack to kill Germans.
Police to release more details today. Based on commentary....jihadist-behavior to figure into this.
7. Hamburg SPD politicians calling for Scholz as Chancellor to step down.
8. Solidarity tax is being challenged in court (existed since the early 1990s). Chief problem for the court? Entire design was to provide the gov't money for eastern Germany to upgrade. Complaint is that they've reached maturity now, and the tax has to end.
The hot topic of monthly Bahn-ticket (2024 pricing was 49 Euro, and it was supposed to escalate to 58 Euro in January) has come up.
State transportation chiefs have come up and said....if the coalition (now SPD-Greens)...don't fix the budget and pass it....that 58 Euro ticket can't stay at the current projected price.
To make this deal work....the states and federal gov't were supposed to come and 'give' up 1.5-billion Euro....to subsidize the ticket (getting it down to 58 Euro). If this fails? No one says much, but you'd have to expect the ticket to go up to 68 Euro (minimum)....maybe more.
What you get for the price? All bus and normal rail transport....in 2nd-class....for a month. No ICE or high-speed rail travel.
Has this ticket always been around? No. It occurred after Covid and was supposed to be a gimmick in getting people to ditch their car and go to work via the network.
Based on new polls....if an election is held now in Germany:
CDU-CSU gets 32-percent of the vote.
SPD would get 16-percent of the vote.
Green Party would get 12-percent of the vote.
AfD would get 18-percent of the vote.
BSW would get 6-percent of the vote.
FDP and Linke would FAIL to get a minimum number of seats because of polling trends.
So you'd only have 6 parties in the future Bundestag.
To get a coalition? CDU-CSU would have to partner with Greens or SPD....that's it. If BSW falters at this point....going below 5-percent....it gets to being even more interesting.
Adding to more tension....the CSU folks (the more conservative group)....have made it pretty blunt....no coalition with the Greens. It is possible that the CSU would separate themselves and walk away if the trend were a relationship with the Green Party.
There's a weekly cop-murder-show on ARD (public TV, Channel 1) every Sunday night. I might normally watch 20-percent of these 90-minute mini-movies.30 Last night's description lead to watch.
So the premise of the 'murders'....three bodies had ended up in north coast waters, and these cops were called to investigate.
About 30 minutes into the drama....they've recovered cellphones and broken into them....to watch some clip of a young gal suggesting each victim to give up their life.
The victims? Well....all teenage environmentalists....hyped-up to save the Earth.
The cops are now trying to find this TV gal suggesting suicide action. So another 20 minutes pass, and now they all come to figure out...it's NOT a real person....it's artificial intelligence (fake gal). Yeah, it's a computer program running on automatic.
I'll just say that in the final 20 minutes of the movie....they end up wrapping things up, but two more juveniles die in the process.
Freaky? I would suggest that half-a-million Germans are sitting at the water-cooler at work today....all chatty over this AI-threat to society.
Well...Jörg Kukies apparently has a 120,000-Euro membership at the ultra-exclusive Beaverbrook Golf Club in London.
This topic will come up a good bit as the SPD Party spins the positive nature of this guy handling the budget business.
Making the CDU Party 'boss' (Merz) now look acceptable with his Blackrock background? You could make that case. I doubt if the SPD leadership knew much of the club membership deal.
1. Meeting between the CDU Party and the German Federal Election Commissioner? Party demanded the meeting (will occur either Mon or Tues)....after the Commissioner said the 'system' could not arrange a national vote within 30 days....citing some paper supply problem.
After hearing the comment....German paper association (representing all the companies)....said it was BS. It's NOT special paper....just recycled low-grade paper. There should be tons of the stuff laying around. All you need is the state listing or the parties printed on it.
2. The way that a fed election occurs? No-Confidence vote is held....majority says to collapse the gov't. Next day, with results...Chancellor would go to the President, and report his anticipated date of the election. It is NOT written into stone about timing....but generally you allow two months to campaign.
Immediately, the parties (not just the top seven, but the remaining 30 odd-ball parties as well....would have a meeting. Each would determine their Chancellor candidate, and write down 20 to 30 'promises' for their platform.
The platform? This is the serious part of the election....the key things they talk about. In the 1930s....for the Nazis....one key promise was to halt under-age work (meaning they didn't want 12-year-old kids in a factory).
The campaign then starts, with signs and posters. Public TV and radio gives free time for each party (even the 30-small parties).
At your local level, there are planning episodes to occur....where the city clerk appoints people to run the polling station, and be 'counters'.
3. Focus article from the weekend talked about a serious escalation of violence in the drug-war within Hamburg....cops now worried about where this is going.
4. I went to 'Alter Weiss Mann' (the movie) this past weekend. I highly recommend the movie.....centers on all aspects of 'WOKE'. If you don't understand the concept.....it'll detail every piece of it. German production....I give it 5-stars.
Shocker? 14.50 Euro per seat at the kino. With pop-corn and soda, with parking fee....Around 45 Euro spent on a couple....damn expensive.
5. News interview with the Berlin city-election manager....serious amount of warning.....how they mismanaged the last fed election and that they really need more than two months of 'warning' and preparation. History to that election? Court system forced them to repeat it (year later).
6. Based on weekend chatter....I think the no-confidence vote will occur before 1 December, but the national vote itself won't happen until mid-to-late Feb. I also don't think it's helping the SPD Party much in delaying the process. The amount of dislike/frustration with Chancellor Scholz....is readily apparent (three-quarters of polled Germans want him gone).
Another factor....party platforms have NOT been determined. You can't just suddenly 'pop' these out of thin air.
"Stupidity is a more dangerous enemy of good than evil.
Evil can be protested against.
It can be exposed.
If necessary, it can be prevented by force.
Evil always carries the seed of decomposition within itself, leaving at least a feeling of unease in people.
We are defenseless against stupidity."
-- Dietrich Bonnhoeffer
Bonnhoeffer was a German....within the Lutheran Church, and jailed during in 1940s....dying in a concentration camp at the very end of the war.
What makes the quote interesting....a couple of German comedians have come to use the quote a good bit in the past year.
My interest? Well....both left-wing and right-wing folks use it....assessing each other of being the stupid ones.
Even some Americans have started using it....same story left-wing and right-wing....suggesting each of being stupid.
The key danger here? We will all end up on some list or index....being accused of being 'stupid'....whether we earned the role or not.
About three years ago....our regional public TV network (HR) did a short series on helping people to cut electrical consumption.
A key story came up in the piece....they went to a house of a 70-year-old German guy, and got all hyped-up about the electrical consumption and bill.
So they helped to measure all items in the house, and came to the basement. Here was some 1960s freezer (BIG model), and the guy was so proud of the quality in it.....it was still working 45 years later.
The TV expert examined the wattage and gave the guy the bad news.....almost half the consumption in the house....went back to this one freezer unit. In pure numbers....if he dumped it for a modern freezer....in two years, he'd actually pay for the new unit (entirely).
You could tell....it bothered him. Throwing away a perfectly working freezer made no sense. In the end, he did it.
Here's the thing....across Germany, there are probably 300,000 Germans like this....one household appliance....over 30 years old and a 'boat-anchor' for electrical cost.
Toward Friday night last week....ARD (public TV in Germany) went and did a live interview the vice-Chancellor (Habeck, Green Party, Economics Minister).
Most of the interview was BS, and simply Habeck trying to give a positive-spin on the Green Party strategy and politics.
So the youthful moderator for ARD asked some question about the 'record' (it wasn't a record of super-positive numbers or trends). He used the term 'poor record' and asked how the public should view things.
To which Habeck responds: (my German is never that great) 'Look, we worked hard to ensure that things did not get worse.'
For a moment or two....I thought he was just being sarcastic or trying to show a humor side....then I realized....nope, he was serious.
As screwed-up as the economy is in Germany, yeah....it could be seriously worse. Maybe that's the attitude that everyone should have....moderately worse is better than absolutely worse. There's some German logic to the idea.
Maybe this is the attitude that all Germans should have.....getting struck by lightning is better than having sharks attack you, or some mad elephant stomp on you.
I was siting and reading through a Brit newspaper this AM....getting to their interpretation of why Germany couldn't hold a national election within a month.
Their reasoning? Germany didn't have the 'right' paper on hand to print out the ballots.
I went to my German wife to suggest this story....with her going ballistic over the idea.
As she stated (it is a fact)....Germans for over 30 years have been using crappy recycled paper for ballots (brownish in color). In her mind....somewhere in Bavaria, there is probably some underground vault with 3,000 pallets of such paper sitting there and guarded by some 70-year old German guy named Huns.
As she suggested....retrieve the stupid crappy paper....it'd take a week to print the ballots, and BAM....have the election.
This brings me to the logical question....is there any reason to delay this (like the Chancellor's suggestion of a no-confidence vote in mid-January, and a national vote in late-March 2025)?
The only reason I can see....most people are just not that aligned or pumped-up on SPD or Green voting platforms. If you view public opinion (public TV numbers).....adding both the SPD and Greens up....it comes to ONLY 28-percent of the public. So roughly 3 out of 4 Germans won't vote for them.
In Scholz's mind....they need three months to hype-up public feeling. It's the only explanation possible.
1. Huge protest in Valencia, Spain (over 100,000)....about flood mismanagement.
2. Poll now done on dislike of the German Chancellor....72-percent dislike the guy (Scholz).
3. Poll done on Germans and what they want as the next coalition gov't. Highest rate? CDU/CSU and FDP......ONLY at 25-percent. CDU/CSU and SPD....ONLY at 21-percent. SPD and Greens? ONLY at 15-percent.
Bad indicator of how people view the coalition system working.
4. Yesterday.....November 9th....has a special note....the November Revolution, the Hitler Putsch, Kristallnacht and the fall of the Berlin Wall....all occurred on the 9th in history.
1. Based off news coverage from yesterday (Fri).....all political parties in Germany are now engaged in political campaign chatter...even though we have not had the no-confidence vote in the Bundestag
In some ways....it's amusing. In other ways....it's tragic.
2. Investigation going on in Bad Homburg (north of Frankfurt)....apparently the local office handling residence permits (German Green Cards)....were issuing them to known criminals. Some suggestion of bribes. Bild is reporting this presently.
3. Merz (CDU 'boss') spoke to the idea yesterday....have the no-confidence vote now, and arrange the national vote for 19 January.
Today....the German Federal Election Commissioner (Ruth Brand) sent a letter a letter to Chancellor Scholz.
Basically, she warned against the idea of a election date too early.
The key quote? "Since the proper preparation and conduct of the election is essential for citizens' trust in democracy, it is necessary to be able to make full use of the 60-day period from the dissolution of the German Bundestag in order to be able to take all the necessary measures in a legally secure and timely manner."
What she's getting at? Well....you got Christmas and New Years.....most folks are taking at least 7 to 10 days off in this period.
So even if you had the no-confidence vote next week.....getting to election day.....probably gets you a calendar date of late January (at best), to make the Election Commissioner happy.
This whole topic now....the no-confidence vote, and the national election day....is consuming a fair amount of public frustration. One gets the impression...most Germans would like to see Scholz gone, and some fresh new crew running the gov't....meaning that the Green Party isn't in the picture.
I noticed today....fair amount of public attention focused on ARD/ZDF (the two public TV networks). I'd take a guess each is running a minimum of 8 hours a day....covering the chaos.
The current word (by Chancellor Scholz) is that the vote will occur on 15 January. If the CDU/CSU, FDP, AfD, BSW....have a say in the matter...it'll happen next week. I'm more likely to believe Scholz will hold firm, sticking to the 15th of January.
So what happens in the next nine weeks? Mostly a LOT of chatter about failures of this gov't....by the general public, and the news media. Yeah, I don't see the news media avoiding the discussion.
Criticism of Olaf Scholz? It'll double.
Criticism of the Green Party in general? It'll go up a notch or two.
As much as Scholz thinks politics won't be consumed in the Christmas season....it'll be the number one topic among Germans.
So the key folks who benefit?
1. Merz and the entire CDU/CSU....gain. As a minimum....they likely edge up to 38-percent by election day....maybe even to 40-percent.
2. BSW, with Sahra Wagenknecht? Gain. As a minimum, up into 12 percent.
3. FDP.....gain. I'd take a guess of a 6-to-8 percent situation.
As for AfD? Their big stance was anti-migrant. They would have to build a new platform and talk about the economy and taxation. I don't see them gaining much.
So the losers? Greens and SPD.
I'll add this note....immediately after the 15th of January (this no-confidence day)....I suspect the SPD Party will gather up at one site, and let Scholz know that he's out.
If Scholz were to reverse this mess and have the no-confidence vote next week....it would be an awful weird Christmas season....hyped-up political chatter, and some national vote the week prior to Christmas. Coalition-building? Through the New Year's period?
The odd thing? The longer you pause and wait....you get to a campaign period that runs along side of the Trump team effect in late-January. You wouldn't want to campaign about budgets and budget-cuts.
Me advocating for a quick election? Yeah....this is like a root-canal....you don't want to delay things.
Before I get deep into this discussion....a note....while these are 'state-imposed'...the majority of these German taxes don't go into the state tax pot.
Tax #1: EEG surcharge....pays for renewable projects. Roughly 3.7 Euro cents per kWH.
Tax #2: CHP surcharge....runs around .226 Euro cents per kWH. This is a provider-premium....that your provider gets from you (the consumer)....if they promote heating/cooling networks in their business plan.
Tax #3: Surcharge under Section 19 (2) of the Electricity Grid Fee Ordinance. Amounts to .305 Euro cents per kWh. Goes to transmission system operators, for their 'losses'.
Tax #4: Offshore surcharge under Section 17f of the Energy Industry Act. Amounts to .416 Euro cents per kWh. Pays for off-shore wind energy projects.
Tax #5: Section 18 of the Ordinance on Interruptible Loads (AbLaV). Amounts to .005 Euro cents per kWh. Goes to transmission system operators.
Tax #6: Concession fee levy. Amounts to 1.61 Euro cents per kWh. Covers rights of way cost.
Tax #7: Electricity tax. Amounts to 2.05 Euro cents per kWh. Created to encourage you to use LESS power. Goes into a pension-retirement pot for the public.
Tax #8: VAT, normally 19-percent. Your normal sales tax.
So if you were wondering why Germans pay the most of any European country for 'power'.....it simply all adds up.
1. Collapse update: BSW, CDU/CSU, AfD, and FDP parties are now demanding a no-confidence vote next week. Strong belief that the 2025 budget cannot pass.....with a temp-budget established to get by for 4 months of 2025.
2. Another bomb/explosion in Koln...one injury. What the cops say over this trend (several explosions over the past month or two).....Dutch criminal gangs.
3. Weather for next week? In Bavaria....talk of snow is popping up.
4. Political parties now in lite-form of campaign chatter? As much as the Chancellor has avoided the no-confidence vote.....it would appear that ALL of the parties are now forming up and engaging in campaign strategy.
I probably watched four hours of German TV yesterday...covering the gov't collapse. I can make seven observations:
1. With the meeting (30 minutes) yesterday between Chancellor Scholz and CDU's Merz....nothing has occurred. Scholz will not call for a confidence vote until the 15th of January. There will be a minority gov't during this entire period, with more or less....zero accomplishments.
2. Polling data by ARD (public TV) says two out of three Germans want a no-confidence vote NOW (with a national vote before Christmas).
3. Most Germans (probably in the 60-percent range) are in disbelief how this all came about. Lot of man-on-the-street interviews done by ZDF/ARD.
4. Key detail in this budget fight between the Finance Minister and the Chancellor? Promised money for Ukraine.
5. Scholz is mostly finished....I can't see him in the new election running. SPD Party have to replace him for the campaign.
6. Key thing I learned yesterday.....no one but the Chancellor can call for a no-confidence vote.
7. News media crapping all over the SPD and Green Party in this 8-week period? Campaign-wise....nothing can start until no-confidence vote occurs. Every day that reporters covers this event....makes Scholz look 'bad'. For this reason alone.....the SPD Party probably needs to step in and let Scholz go.
About two months ago....Kiel Institute for the World Economy released their view of 2025 and 2026, for the German economy.
Outlook? "Weak Momentum, Low Potential Growth."
Their numbers? About a 0.1% decline in Germany's GDP for final view of 2024.
For 2025? A growth of ONLY 0.8% for 2025.
For 2026? Better than average at 1.3%.
This was released before all the dismal VW stuff started up.
1. Business reaction this AM of the German gov't collapse?
Harsh. They say each week of indecision....is hurting the national image, and economy.
2. Scholz gone?
Last night, ARD put up a poll listing....7 folks listed as potential Chancellor in the future. Scholz was number 7. Pistorious (SPD-Defense Minister) was number one, with Merz (CDU) as number two.
3. How does a typical schedule for a collapse go?
It's just rare....but you'd have a no-confidence vote. Then the Chancellor goes to the President and says an election (typically in 10 weeks). This would allow for a campaign period (promises to be made). Election occurs, then the winner has 6 weeks to get a party or two within the coalition (deal-making) and then the new gov't stands.
4. Merz (CDU) calling for an immediate no-confidence vote?
YES. Merz says to do it early next week.
5. Is there a reason, to linger or pause till early January for the no-confidence vote?
Some believe that the country...in the middle of Christmas season....would be harmed. Also.....most politicians will admit a 70-hour a week schedule during a campaign season, and it's hectic to do this in the holiday season.
6. Jörg Kukies (SPD) to be the new Finance Minister?
Yes. I would imagine he has a draft budget already written, and tax increases worded out already.
7. Could Germany rush-up an election?
The 16 states routinely have local and state elections, and there is ALWAYS a process. So I'd say if it was mandated to be an election in four weeks....they could run such a thing.
Are the parties in a mindset for a new election? They need to meet....get up a platform, and make some bogus promises on paper....so six to eight weeks would be the norm for them.
8. Does everyone agree with the Finance Minister's logic....within the FDP Party itself?
Well....that got brought up in Focus news this AM.....with several folks suggesting the budget was not something to collapse the gov't upon.
9. Is the German economy screwed up?
I would say since since Covid....the economy has not gotten back on track. You go and walk through a shopping district, and there are empty store-fronts. You bring up bankruptcy rates, and it's still pretty hefty. Energy prices (fuel, natural gas and electricity) are hefty.
They need some 'lift' to occur....to refocus consumers on positive matters.....Scholz is simply not the person for the job..
10. Could a no-confidence vote be forced next week?
You would have to have all CDU, CSU, FDP, AfD, BSW folks push for this. If you asked me....are there folks within the SPD who want the early election now....I'd suggest you could find five to ten. The odds of this occurring? Probably 30-percent at best.
For the record, the SPD and Greens hold 324 seats out of the 733 seats. The Linke Party still holds 28 seats and might vote with them
11. Would there be an immediate meeting of the entire SPD Party after a no-confidence vote...to dump Scholz as their candidate?
Yes, without any doubt, and Pistorious is the person figured into this strategy.
12. Could Pistorious restore confidence in the SPD Party?
He could bump up the numbers....say getting the SPD to 25-percent (presently, they are near 16-to-18 percent). But if the platform says more taxation....people won't be happy.
13. Trump-win influencing any of the situation?
If you get into January, Trump's team says a massive cut in government cost/personnel will start up. Germans, in January, would notice this idea and ask questions. It would be a odd development to figure into the scene.
Last night...regular news on ARD (public TV, Channel 1) ended at 8:15 PM, and they decided to run a extra 20-min 'special' to explain the US election/Trump win....all done live.
Well...about 10 minutes into it....they side-step and announce that Linder (Finance Minister, FDP Party 'boss', and coalition member) had arrived at the Chancellor's building....meeting between him, the Chancellor and Habeck (Green Party, vice-Chancellor).
So they continued on with the Trump stuff....actually going way past 20 minute point...interviewing a dozen experts.
For Germans, it's hard to come around to this 'win'....almost 99-percent of people expected Harris to win.
So as we get near to 9 PM....news comes that Linder has been 'fired' (relieved) of his job. The Trump-chatter starts wind-down, and you realize things are heading 'south'.
For about four months, the draft budget for 2025 has occupied the Finance Ministry. Linder has a personal limit....NO more than 3-percent of the anticipated GDP can be spent. He told this to the Chancellor in the summer...and to Habeck.
Well....the income level of Germany dropped for the anticipated 2025 period....so he limited the budget. Chancellor said NO....over and over.
Last night's meeting? Chancellor fired the Finance Minister. What Lindner wanted? A collapse of the gov't....new elections. Chancellor said NO.
So the Chancellor came on live-TV....about 9:15, with prepared speech (had to be written at least a couple of days ago)....blaming Lindner for the collapse, and how all he had to do was raise taxes to get the right budget.
At the end of the speech....I commented to my German wife....did I get this wrong....he came across as a 'bratty 12-year old kid'? No...my wife said....you are correct. She noted....in a recession period...the worst thing you can do is raise taxes.
So the vote of confidence? The Chancellor WON'T call for it until the week after Christmas....around 7 January. He's doing this to avoid political campaigning during the Christmas season. I sat there shaking my head.....broken gov't in place.....collapsed....no move to fix things for about 8 weeks.
Shortly after that speech....ARD switches over to a Habeck speech (from the Green Party prospective)....live.
He's all chatty how they need more money to save the climate.....more or less....new taxes had to come, for climate-projects.
I looked at social media after that....100-percent of Germans were blasting the Chancellor, and anti-new-tax chatteer. They want the vote of no-confidence tomorrow, and new elections within a month.
Remarkable.....how the news was going to cover Trump's win, and it's really the biggest negative evening for the Scholz coalition in 3 years.
My observation at this point over the anticipated election? Greens and SPD have to voice fresh new taxes....spoiling the election for themselves. Merz and the CDU/CSU? They will soar to 36-to-38 percent on the win, with the Greens likely not going past 8-percent. This election (when it finally collapses) will be about new taxes (to save the climate agenda).
Just shaking my head....weird evening concluded with the news special around 10:15....going into normal 10:15 news, where you got another 45 minutes of coverage.
1. It'll be openly discussed in Spain....but someone sat and counted the number of dams dismantled in 2021/2022, for Europe 2030 project....250-plus dams were removed....in the interest of restoring the natural 'course' of rivers in the country. Some people presently think these dams would have slowed down the flooding around SW Spain. I should point out here.....this was a EU funded project on the removal.
2. Condor, the 'little-sister' of Lufthansa Airlines....intends to start in the spring....a Frankfurt flight, within Germany....to Hamburg, Munich and Berlin (at least once a day).
Back before the Summer Olympics....the Interior Minister ordered the Fed-police of Germany to patrol the borders.
What this meant? Up until this point....there was no border controls (like existed in the 1980s). So you go to the French-Germany border (I've crossed it and can talk to this)....there's a tent set up and they wave cars through....or have you stop and reviewed.
You show an ID, and they check the vehicle/trunk. All good? You continue on. Problem? If you have no ID....control will be reviewed. If you can't prove anything....you DON'T enter Germany. They take your picture and ensure a record is made.
What they admit....probably a couple hundred folks per month are denied entry.
Could you still sneak over (walking/hiking)? I'd say it's 50-50 on that opportunity.
The cops enthusiastic over the job? Marginally so. They hint that this can only be done for a limited period of time.
What's likely to happen? I think the Border Patrol stuff will restart....maybe in the range of 5,000 to 10,000 personnel. My humble belief is that the CDU Party will talk a good bit over the idea, and embrace it.
Another high cost-item? Yeah....that's the negative.
This taking three years to fully man-up? Yeah, that's another problem.
The Chancellor candidates? Presently, the CDU/CSU have kinda agreed on paper that Friedrich Merz is 'lead', with Bavaria's Soder getting some kind of position in the gov't (my humble guess is either the Finance Ministry or Economics Ministry). SPD candidate? Scholz has said his intention is to run.....the numbers aren't there, and I suspect that the current Defense Minister (Boris Pistorius) gets the 'nod'. Green Party? Habeck is probably the more popular person to run. AfD Party candidate? It'll either be Tino Chrupalla or Alice Weidel...both have general support within the party. As for BSW? Well....it can ONLY be Sahra Wagenknecht (it's her party....remember).
I would discount the Linke Party....it won't matter....they won't rise above 3-percent of the vote...so getting seats won't matter.
FDP is currently trending near 4-percent....similar story. If you asked me over their candidate? I'd say Christian Lindner (the current party 'boss') would be the choice. He would really need to charm a lot of people....to get to 5-percent.
From the remaining 30-odd parties...dismiss any thought that they will rise above 5-percent.
As for chief topics right now? I'd suggest the economy (quiet stagnant), deep recession, continual worry about crime/assault, national budget crisis (they can't seem to get a balanced budget with the anticipated income), rising energy costs (highest in Europe on grid-cost), continual worry about Russia's threats, getting deportation efforts up to meet the numbers required, keeping the border closed, public TV cost frustration, rising healthcare costs (closure of hospitals on thetable) and saving VW (they will discover in the next month or two that BMW, Mercedes and Opel also need saving).
To touch upon each?
What brought things currently to a boil is a federal budget crisis....Lindner had a rough draft budget back in July, and people brought 'emergency-topics' to the table. The recession has dampen spirits of serious income for 2025....so Lindner told Scholz and 'company' that cuts have to be made.
The VW crisis? They are several billion Euro in the hole. In the old days....the gov't would step in with cheap loans and save the day. Presently, they are now fearful of other companies saying the same thing. The cheap loans simply aren't there. But all of the parties are fearful of having 30,000 VW employees dismissed.
Deportation mess? At the beginning of the year....they listed around 200,000-plus folks who'd failed the application and needed to be deported. No one says the numbers per week, but I watched a documentary piece last month....showing the normal plane operation...roughly 30 folks carried off by 75 police....figure a quarter-million Euro per flight in costs. Lot of Germans are outraged over the cost level and the amount of 'help' required just to get 30 folks 'gone'.
Closing the borders? Well....some are suggesting bringing back the 'old' border control. Currently, the police are operating controls, and it's a cost item upon them. They said in blunt talk back two months ago....they can't do this control thing for a long period. To create the 1980s type border patrol? You'd be talking about 10,000 employees. How they'd pay for this? Unknown.
Worry about assaults/crime? You can ask folks in Hamburg, Bremen, Frankfurt, Dresden.....the major urban centers, and they are all disturbed how the trends have gone over the past decade. Merkel hired 10,000 more police and crime has simply out-paced their effective nature. Count in mafia groups, drug sales, and a upswing in juvenile crime....it's a hot topic. Same story in small towns/villages? No....if you live in a village of 300 folks.....you probably are 100-percent happy with safety numbers.
Closure of hospitals? Health costs are escalating and the rural folks are the ones getting the pressure put on.....to close hospitals. They aren't happy.
Energy costs? Well...it goes back to denying Russian natural gas, and they need the war to stop.....with fresh new relations with Putin.
The talk to bring back nuke plants? The CDU/CSU folks are blasting away on this, and I might predict new nuke technology (the small plants) to be part of the future.
If an election occurs....I expect the CDU/CSU to win (in the 30-to-33 percent range). The SPD is likely to recover some numbers, and get near 20-to-24 percent....with Pistorius fairly popular. AfD? There's this odd threat to ban them from politics, but presently....I'd say they might get in the 18-to-20 percent range....hyping up deportations, border protection and fixing relations with Russia. With the Greens? They've lost half their voters from the last election, and would be lucky if they get in the 9-to-12 percent range. Habeck is 'poison' when it comes to talking about the budget and the economy.
The budget problem keeps coming back? Yeah....the recession is really crapping over stability. Part of this issue is left from the Covid-era, and part is simply drawing upon resources to support the Ukraine in the war.
Key future? Scholz isn't really that likeable (no energy would be a good phrase to use). So....anyone would be a better fix for Chancellor. As for Merz being there for more than four years? No....I'd predict that in four years....he might step to the side and Soder gets the next 'nod'.
What I left out? Well....this stupid property tax reform episode....is now deemed a failure, and the public wants a reform (of the reform). In some cases, people are paying 3 to 4 times what they were paying before. It took 18 months to crank up the screwed-up reform......so it's anyone's guess how they might resolve this mess.
Yeah, just a lot of drama....with no clear solutions. The two parties on the crap list? I'd say half the nation is hyped-up negative about the AfD Party, and things have gone downhill for the Green Party (half of their party is now battling the other half).
1. The CDU Party presented a draft plan to bring back nuke power. Odds of getting approval? It won't happen until an election occurs, and the Green Party is not part of the coalition gov't.
I'll just say....it's a long process. Even if approved in 2025....it could be five-plus years before such a plant is built. However, with new technology (the mini-plants)....I could see a dozen plants back in operation by 2035. Selling point? If you could bring down power costs by one-third....it'd help the economy.
2. The Interior Minister is developing a 'safe-countries' strategy to deport failed refugees. Key factor? Its developed in a way to avoid Green Party objections.
3. Axe attack on a Paris train...four wounded. Involves a fight that broke out. Police say one guy's hand was cut off.
4. Statistical number released....only around 2-percent of smokers in Germany use e-smokes.
5. Odd report this AM.....may be partial BS....but Russian 'agents' had some kind of plan to crash a German plane over at the Leipzig airport. More substance on the report expected today.
6. New banking ATM technology announced....explosive-proof ATM 'box'....weighing 18 tons. About the size of four refrigerators (with a door for entry). There is some belief that this is the path for the future....ATMs likely to be removed from banks/buildings....because of the continuing trend of blowing up the ATMs for robbery purposes.
There are five observations I can make:
1. This southern region of Spain is usually dry (maybe up to 14 inches a rain in a year). So when this eight-hour period ended....it'd dumped a full-year of rain on awful dry soil, and it had to run off (instead of being absorbed).
2. Forecasted? No....there might have been 30 minutes of some warning of massive rain coming....so this was a total shock.
3. Emergency services? Crap. Even discussing some national FEMA-like recovery plan....it just doesn't appear to exist.
4. In terms of missing folks? Even today (Monday)....there's 2,000 on the list, and it's pretty certain they are dead.
5. How long a recovery period? Based on video....I'd say a minimum of two years.
Fairly good odds now (say better than 50-percent) that the SPD-Green-FDP coalition will collapse by the weekend.
What happens next? Announced fresh new election....probably by mid-to-late January.
Blame? It mostly goes to a recession situation, stalled 2025 budget talks, and inability of the gov't to cut budgets. Along the way, the cost of energy, the Ukraine war, and migration woes fit into the public discontent.
Dumping Scholz as Chancellor seen as a positive thing now? Over the past year....in oddly-worded polls....a majority of Germans tend to say Scholz needs to leave. There never was what I'd call hyped-up enthusiasm for Scholz.
Improving things? One shouldn't pause over this idea much....it's just that different tricks need to be shown for political strategies.
1. There's talk that a agreement on the budget has to be reached by Wednesday night....if nothing occurs, then by this next weekend....the coalition is rumored to collapse.
Odd? There was a meeting last night between the Finance Minister and the Chancellor....lot of pressure to 'move on'.....not much said after the meeting.
Likely winner out of a new election? No doubt....CDU/CSU with around 32-percent of the vote.
Likely loser out of a new election? No doubt....both the FDP (near 4-percent) and the Greens (near 9-percent).
2. King of Spain attempted to visit the Valencia area yesterday....with hostile feelings shown by locals. Federal gov't has been slow to provide help for the flood.
3. Thyssenkrupp (the German steel-maker) CEO gave an interview this weekend....says the company is losing money every day. Chief blame? Politics not working in favor of the company, and incompetent managers within the company itself.
4. Chancellor office in talks to buy two-dozen new exec chairs for the conference room. People are peeved to learn 4k Euro a chair strategy is in play.
To buy 4-star 'nice' chairs these days....run a minimum of 1k Euro.
5. Reform chatter on public TV 'players' (ARD and ZDF). Currently, the top exec's are making near 400k Euro a year each. The gov't wants to limit them to no more than what the Chancellor makes (roughly 200k Euro). How they would downsize the current 'team'? Unknown.
6. Spain's weather service is giving a warning of extreme weather in the next 24 hours....hinting at more flooding. This time in Almeria region (extreme SE tip of the country, upon the coast).
7. Hessen is setting up a Christmas-market rule.....NO knives. Markets will have a entry point or two, with cops surveilling and searching people. I have believing they have the manpower to manage this.....just in Wiesbaden alone, you'd have ten entry points.
So the EU funded a dam removal program. Each blue dot represents a removal project.
The blue-zone? That's the flooded area.
Odds of a second discussion over the dams? Yeah, I'd say when they sit down for a lessons learned episode....this might be a topic.
I got my 3rd (ever) German speeding ticket yesterday. Blitz-camera situation.
With 30-odd years in and around Germany.....I feel kinda lucky....just 3 tickets. All three are 6 to 10 km's over the speed limit....so they generally run 30 Euro.
They come in a nicely worded letter (with my picture)....saying they applied 'tolerance-levels'. This usually means that they are giving you five km of speed and maybe even eight km....on top of the normal limit.
So to be honest....in this zone I was traveling....I was pretty confident I was going near 52 kph (in a 30-zone). That would have meant a 90 Euro fine. But with their tolerance-talk....it ends up being a 30 Euro fine.
The sad part of this story? Well....I end up getting sixteen lectures by my German wife about what we could have spent the 30 Euro upon.
My chief grumble? It used to be purely 2 regular speed limits and a rare 3rd limit that you'd run into. Around urban areas.....there were the 50 and 100 kph limit signs. In the past three years....you now see a lot of 30 kph limit signs. You might drive through x-number of regular streets for a decade, and then one day....like 2 weeks ago....they flipped a street area from 50 km to 30 km and there's a blitz-camera installed.
WELT (the German newspaper) has an interesting commentary written by Lennart Pfahler today (Sunday)....entitled: "The Inconvenient Truths Behind German Islam Policy."
It's worth a read.
Basically, Pfahler goes to describe how various German Muslims now believe they are in some type of conflict with western values/stances/positions.
As you gaze at the Merkel and Scholz governments....their intent was always trying sell some idea of moderate-Islam. Among Muslims? It's sometimes 'bought' and sometimes joked-about.
There's generally always a reminder....Germany is this wonderful land with freedom of religion (Article 4 of the Constitution). It's just that you assume with the Article 4....there's a remarkable amount of tolerance. In some cases, you get the full dose of tolerance and in some cases....you get a pretty marginal amount of tolerance.
After a few years of observing things, one might come to the conclusion that as much as one group is working on building societies that are cohesive....there's others working on dividing societies...ensuring little to no cohesiveness.
All of this a internal thing within Germany? I'm not really buying into that idea....wondering if external efforts are playing a part of the chaos going on.
1. Spain update (flooding). PM says 5,000 police and 5,000 soldiers will be brought into the affected area.
Some questions now being directed...how no warning came in the hour or two prior to the massive rainfall.
2. Fair amount of chatter in Germany this weekend....more expectations that the coalition will collapse here in November, and new election by January.
Polls? Showing strong lead for CDU/CSU. Greens at lowest point in 5 years (near 9-percent).
3. Weird brawl over in Frankfurt....five injured at Main-Taunus-Zentrum mall. Gas pistol use. Large contingent of police got called out. Appears to be mostly teenagers.
Scared the crap out of shoppers, and some thought they were in the middle of some terror action...escaping to their cars and trying to exit the parking deck area.
I've been to the Zentrum....extremely crappy planning for entry and exit out of the parking area. Unlike most malls....parking is above the shopping mall area (not below or in the basement).
