What is this entire CDU Party 'elephant-dance' really about? They have to settle upon a candidate for Chancellor, and it's down to only two people (Premier-President Armin Laschet of NRW and Premier-President Markus Soder of Bavaria).
To best sum up the situation....the pro-Merkel crowd would like to have an 'intellectual-type' person to continue the Merkel vision....which in their minds leads to Laschet. The other crowd in the CDU (I wouldn't refer to them as anti-Merkel or anti-intellectual....but they would prefer things to change).....have latched upon Soder.
How both have performed over the past year? In journalists-versus-Laschet situations....I'd chalk the journalists at ten wins to Laschet's four wins. He's lousy at these confrontational interviews, and on debate skills....I'd give him a '6' to '7'.
To be honest, within the CDU Party....the only member with '10' debate skills is the Health Minister Spahn, and in any interview...he literally destroys the journalists.
As for Soder? He's been dragged into fifty-plus occasions over the past six months, and held a pretty good stance against the journalists. I'd give him near a '9' on debate skills.
The pro-Merkel crowd want Soder to just ease up and agree to let Laschet 'win'.
The polling right now? Over the past week, it was direct on results....Laschet can't win in a match-up with the Green Party. Only Soder has the numbers to possibly win.
What'll likely happen? I suspect the pro-Merkel crowd will carry this 'limp-situation' (Laschet) to September, and they end up with a 21-to-22 percent second-place showing. Laschet then resigns as the party chief, and they go through a four-year re-building process.
Spahn? He'll be the guy left to rebuild the whole mess.
It is a comedy of sorts....demonstrating why the public has a different prospective than actual CDU Party membership.
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