Friday, April 23, 2021

Looking Ahead at German State Elections

 For the remainder of 2021....there are three state elections this year:

6 June: Saxony-Anhalt

26 Sep: Berlin 

26 Sep: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

For 2022?

Spring period: Saarland, NRW, and Schlesweg-Holstein

Fall period: Niedersachsen

As to the idea of damage done to the CDU for September's national election (this year)?  Well....it won't have much affect on the Berlin election but it could be a curious twist for Mecklenburg if the CDU ranks poorly (they are ranked almost even with the SPD currently in the election polling).

As for 2022's spring election?  A poor showing for the CDU in September of this year....would trigger a lot of worry for these three state elections in the spring.  

My humble belief is that a really poor showing in the national election (Sep 2021)....would trigger a lot of talk for dismissing the party chief....Laschet.  Recovering with a new party chief, and doing well in the spring of 2022?  I kind of doubt it.  You might be looking at a 12 to 18 month period where the CDU walks two to three individuals through....as party chiefs, and find serious public views of the organization.  

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