Friday, January 16, 2015

The Three Numbers You Don't Know

In recent weeks, with the anti-immigration, anti-Muslim talk, and Pegida going on......a person might sit back here in Germany and ponder on a number of things.  There are three numbers....which the public might like to know, which would focus things a bit differently.....IF they were known.

One.  This past week, I read an essay that someone had written....classifying Muslims.  It was actually a very thoughtful and logical piece.  In logical sequence....there are actually three categories of Islam membership.

There's the group which have arrived in some western land, taken up art, music, beer, non-Muslim friends, lifestyles (being gay), adopted a pet, and are very happy.  They will call themselves a Muslim, just in name only....but the truth is....they don't utter prayers unless the family visits or some relative drags them along.  From the top hundred standard rules of being a Muslim.....they probably violate over ninety of the rules.  For these people, it's a label....that's all.

The second group are more devoted members.  They live in a Muslim community.....attend prayers with gossip or BS within the group.....and live somewhat happy lives.  The only non-Muslim friends are those at work.  They try to keep discipline within the family and avoid being seen in any type of light as provoking the Quran rules.  Violent tendencies?  No....none.

The third group.....are the folks will follow the Quran to the absolute word of understanding, and live a frustrated life.  They are mostly angry toward any non-Islamic individual.  They seek to blame non-Muslims for their fate in life.  The religion is more than a label or a's a political machine and should be used to only build it larger.  Violence is very acceptable within this group....against anyone who needs it.

Here's the poll has ever been done in Germany to split this up and say how many exist in each group.  Even if you'd be stopped by someone because it'd put way too worry onto the minds of public leaders.  If the first two groups (the non-threat folks) only made up ninety percent of those around you.....would it bother you that ten percent of the overall group were a potential threat?  Would you accept that?  Would you hope that they could be reformed, as some indicate?

Two.  Folks talk about German acceptance or non-acceptance.  A couple of polls came out at the end of 2014....indicating a vast majority (somewhere in the sixty-percent range) were agreeable with the way things are being held down by the government, and only a thirty-to-forty percentage of people saying the immigration/Muslim issues were significant.

How reliable were the polls?  You'd generally give fair grades to polls in Germany.....they usually aren't "faked" or use bad data.  But on the other hand....Germans are reactive to changes. If a Paris-like incident occurred, and a forum occurred with heavy commenting slamming immigration or could accomplish the same poll and find suddenly sixty percent of the nation are frustrated and want significant changes.

The real numbers on immigration and anti-Muslim situations?  You don't know.

Three.  When the end of 2017 comes around, and if enough events occurred....causing people to view the AfD party more favorably....what effect would it trigger in the election results?

There's this magic number if you play with the board....where putting a government together is practically impossible.  Let's say that AfD somehow found the magic element and got thirty-eight percent of the nation vote, and the CDU/CSU folks (without Chancellor Merkel) only put up twenty-two percent.  Then you throw in a weak SPD with eighteen percent, the Greens with seven percent, and the Linke Party with fifteen percent.

Would any party be willing to link up and partner with the AfD?  No.  If the CDU/CSU came up within the rules and given a chance as the number two party....could they arrange some partnership with the SPD and Linke Party?  No.  It'd be a an election with no end.

Just how big a deal with immigration, Pegida and the Islamic trend is up right now?  The numbers are unknown.

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