Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Hessen Polling

Local state-run news media for Hessen did a political poll check.  It's not an election year, and things are fairly safe for the current coalition running Hessen's government (CDU and Greens).  I's hard to imagine some conservative CDU folks with some liberal Greens....but they've made this work.

The new polling numbers don't look good for the coalition though.

CDU Party, 36-percent.
SPD Party, 26-percent
Green Party, 11-perent
Linke Party, 8-percent
FDP Party, 5-percent
AfD Party, 12-Percent

If an election were held today....the coalition of CDU and Greens would NOT be enough to run the state gov't.  The CDU would be forced into a relationship with the SPD.

However, the bigger issue is erosion of voters who are frustrated with the CDU, and moving toward the AfD Party.

How accurate is the poll?  HR used the normal method, and from past voting patterns....they were typically within one percent of the actual vote turn-out (say from 2013 as an example).

In this case, if you walk around and some stupid conversation starts up which invokes the topic of refugees or immigrants.....past CDU and FDP voters will say if the election was tomorrow....they'd vote AfD to send a message.  So, from this 36-percent that is hyped by the state-run news media.....I'd take a guess that it's really closer to 30-percent, and the AfD is really closer to 18-percent.

No one has to worry about this election business until 2018 (five-year schedule for Hessen).  Maybe by then the crisis will be over.  If would be a shocker if Hessen saw a 25-percent AfD vote, just above a heavily weakened CDU and SPD situation.

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