Last week, if you read German news on a regular basis....there was this discussion between the CDU Party (Merkel's party) and the Bavarian end of the party (the CSU).....over immigration in 2016.
Generally, the Bavarians have a different view of the issue and moving further away from the Merkel position as each week goes by. They openly talk of the difference in opinion, and vent frustrating comments over the Merkel vision.
Most Germans would voice the comment that the Bavarians don't represent the typical German, or the German image that intellectuals often talk over. These are the same Germans though.....that accept tens of billions in tax revenue from the Bavarians....who seem to know how to generate revenue, taxes, and jobs.
The CSU suggestion last week was that there needs to be a upper-limit on refugees for 2016. Their number? 200,000.
If you go back prior to 2014, that was roughly the "norm" for Germany in terms of asylum seekers, refugees, and immigrants per year (except the Balkans War period). Most of the talk I saw.....noted that they have the immigration centers and ability to readily handle that amount of refugee flow.
The 200,000 number didn't settle well with Merkel or the CDU leadership. There's been some talk since that point that if there isn't some settled point on this.....the CSU might exit the current coalition. Some folks say that if they did exit......the CDU and SPD....would have just enough votes to continue the government. There could be no members failing to show up for a vote, or threatening to vote against a coalition point.
Why the anxiety against the 200,000 number? My suspicion is that Berlin leadership believes that another large wave of immigrants will start up by April, and by the end of July.....at least 300,000 will cross the border into Germany.
There is some brief talk of a wide flow of immigrants.....going way past Syria and Iraq....for 2016. People have seen the open door situation with Germany and might be persuaded to use the Syrian-angle to asylum.
Having 800,000 by the end of 2016? That would make the Bavarian threat more interesting.
My humble guess is that the CSU will pause and wait till mid-March and the three German state elections. If the CDU loses ten-to-twenty percent of their normal voting pattern.....that would be the point where the CSU would say adios and leave the coalition. A mild period of chaos would erupt as state-run news journalists would try to explain all of this prior to the fall period when two more state elections occur.
Bottom line. It's a continual trend where people question the immigration vision and original strategy. If some wise guys had sat down in 2013 and really thought about implications and consequences....they would have designed a better program, knew the impact of costs, found a limit, and been able to remove discussions like this from being national political chat points. But there were no such wise men.