Monday, January 11, 2016

Last Week's CDU and CSU Chat

Last week, if you read German news on a regular basis....there was this discussion between the CDU Party (Merkel's party) and the Bavarian end of the party (the CSU).....over immigration in 2016.

Generally, the Bavarians have a different view of the issue and moving further away from the Merkel position as each week goes by.  They openly talk of the difference in opinion, and vent frustrating comments over the Merkel vision.

Most Germans would voice the comment that the Bavarians don't represent the typical German, or the German image that intellectuals often talk over.  These are the same Germans though.....that accept tens of billions in tax revenue from the Bavarians....who seem to know how to generate revenue, taxes, and jobs.

The CSU suggestion last week was that there needs to be a upper-limit on refugees for 2016.  Their number?  200,000.

If you go back prior to 2014, that was roughly the "norm" for Germany in terms of asylum seekers, refugees, and immigrants per year (except the Balkans War period).  Most of the talk I saw.....noted that they have the immigration centers and ability to readily handle that amount of refugee flow.

The 200,000 number didn't settle well with Merkel or the CDU leadership.  There's been some talk since that point that if there isn't some settled point on this.....the CSU might exit the current coalition.  Some folks say that if they did exit......the CDU and SPD....would have just enough votes to continue the government.  There could be no members failing to show up for a vote, or threatening to vote against a coalition point.

Why the anxiety against the 200,000 number?  My suspicion is that Berlin leadership believes that another large wave of immigrants will start up by April, and by the end of least 300,000 will cross the border into Germany.  

There is some brief talk of a wide flow of immigrants.....going way past Syria and Iraq....for 2016.  People have seen the open door situation with Germany and might be persuaded to use the Syrian-angle to asylum.

Having 800,000 by the end of 2016?  That would make the Bavarian threat more interesting.

My humble guess is that the CSU will pause and wait till mid-March and the three German state elections.  If the CDU loses ten-to-twenty percent of their normal voting pattern.....that would be the point where the CSU would say adios and leave the coalition.  A mild period of chaos would erupt as state-run news journalists would try to explain all of this prior to the fall period when two more state elections occur.

Bottom line.  It's a continual trend where people question the immigration vision and original strategy.  If some wise guys had sat down in 2013 and really thought about implications and consequences....they would have designed a better program, knew the impact of costs, found a limit, and been able to remove discussions like this from being national political chat points.  But there were no such wise men.


Norman Peterson said...

CSU/AfD coalition....

R Hammond said...

Sorry Norm, but that will never happen.

First, there is this secret rule list between the CDU and CSU. The CDU doesn't ever campaign in Bavaria and the CSU doesn't campaign outside of Bavaria. At a really great election year for the CSU in Bavaria....they'd take roughly ten-percent of the national vote total.

Second, the AfD Party is reported to have 10-percent of the national vote presently (three months out from state elections). Different feelings range on the March election, but my humble guess is that the eastern state of Germany (Saxony-Anhalt) might see near 18-percent for AfD. Rhineland Pflaz and Baden Wurttemberg might see near 12-to-16 percent vote. It would really shock me if the three all went more than 20-percent, and it'd really harm the CDU party drastically. However, as I've noted....a lot of people are frustrated and want to send some signal to Berlin.

This March election, and the two other states in a late fall election....will say alot about the future of the CDU. If there were 20-percent wins in March....I could see Merkel being called up by the party to a meeting and the top leadership of the party might say it's time to retire and move on. It'd take a harsh win for that to occur.

As for November of 2017 occurring and the idea of yours for AFD and CSU combining....AfD would have to take 35-percent of the national vote. You'd need a dozen-odd Koln episodes over the next year and total incompetence by the authorities to reach that dynamic point. And even then...would the CSU partner up? My guess is no. Course, maybe the Linke Party would be desperate enough to have a discussion....extreme left wing and extreme right wing in one coalition? Man, that would be require a whole bottle of Jacky D's for me to analyze and imagine some partnership like that in German politics.