Friday, January 1, 2016

Saxony-Anhalt State Election Forecast

As I've noted a couple of times.....state elections are on the horizon in Germany for March.....three of them. eastern one of the states involved.

The last state election went like this.....the CDU was able to get 32.5 percent of the vote.  The Linke Party....23.7 percent.  The SPD Party.....21.5 percent.  The Greens.....7.1.  Around a dozen other minor parties took less than five percent.

AfD was not around in 2011, and it's hard to forecast how they will fare in this election.  Nationally, they tend to take around ten percent. If they were to take ten percent in this election....most of the votes would come from the CDU, and subtract substantially from the 2011 tally.  It'd likely evolve into a Linke Party win (they ought to carry a minimum of the 23 percent that they had in 2011), and the SPD would end up in second place.....probably sliding two or three points off their 21.5 percent win in 2011.

The bigger question would involve the public frustration with immigration, and if they might send a frustration vote against all three parties (CDU, SPD, and Linke Party).....thus giving AfD a bigger than expected vote.  If Saxony-Anhalt ended up with twenty percent or higher for'd likely freak out the state-run news media.  Presently.....I'd go against this logic and AfD will haul 10 to 14 percent of the vote.

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