Sunday, July 24, 2016

Germany and Turkey

It's been eight days now since the fake coup unfolded in Turkey.  I would say that most Germans are sitting in some disbelief at what has unfolded and wondering what kind of partnership that Merkel and the EU were contemplating....with such a neighbor?

For the most part, the top layer of the Berlin leadership are keeping quiet and saying little to nothing....mostly not to antagonize Erdogan or create unnecessary talk to the press.

The expectations?  The EU and Berlin are quiet.  I think they are speculating and expecting some consequences of an extreme nature.

If you read today's Focus.....there's a fine article which talks about the four routes which will probably unfold with Turks packing up and leaving Turkey in large numbers.

The first route is political asylum.....for government officials fired, judges, teachers, and professors.  They would find some way to exit....walk into a German embassy somewhere and simply ask for asylum.  No one knows how the Berlin folks would handle this but they've shown the tendency to accept just about anyone in a hostile environment.

The second route is family immigration, where you get a cousin or uncle to support your movement into Germany.  With more than two million Turks already in Germany....I'd take a guess that one out of every three Turks has some relative here and could easily make such a request.

The third is the work visa.  Naturally, if you had some real the Germans would be awful interested if you can prove this via documentation and schooling.  But I kinda doubt that 100,000 welders or 16,000 car mechanics are in this mix.  It would be curious if twenty-percent of all Turkish doctors and nurses were aggravated by the government change and wanted out....this work visa would fit easily into their background and get them immediate jobs in Germany.

Finally, the fourth method....just come illegally in.  Walk in from Romania, or get some Russian to take you up to Finland and enter from the north.

The numbers? Unknown.  You can assume from the news reports that 50,000 people have been given notice or termination.  However, as several Brit papers have proven over the past week.....not everything that the Turkish government is factual.  In reality, they may have only fired 5,000 such employees and making everyone think it's ten times that many.

Could Germany handle 50,000 Turks over the next six months?  Easily.  250,000 Turks?  Well....with some effort, yes.  500,000 Turks?  That would start to reach a level of pain for the German political folks.

Does this all play into Erdogan's game?  This is the part of the story that you can't be sure about.  Is Erdogan rigging this up to create a stumble for the Merkel government?  If it is a fake it a fake exit door to Germany?

Over the next six months, don't be surprised as you start to notice on German nightly news.....some rule change and asylum law modification.....where it helps 20,000 Turks enter the country in a quick fashion.

No comments: