My wife brought this up late yesterday from her German Handelsblatt newspaper reading (the German Wall Street Journal). They had a big long article over immigration and refugees. Some private think-tank had sat down and analyzed both employment potential, and pension futures.
Most experts outside of the German government now give only a quarter of the immigrants (figure 1.5 million total) a chance for real employment within the first 18 months of arrival (figure six months of language, and a year of integration of training). The rest? They give them roughly six years before they get some type of decent employment (they include burger-flipping, shelf-stocking at the grocery, and lawn maintenance within that category).
Here's the thing....each year that you don't work.....figure six years and you arrived at age 22.....it means less and less pension contribution. A normal German starts some type of work around age 16 to 17, with the college graduates around 22. If you are twenty-eight years old and starting out at a low-rung of the ladder?
You could be talking about ten years of zero contribution to your pension deal.
You can probably anticipate your pension at age 68 to be roughly 700 Euro a month, while the bottom-run German guy would likely be in the 900-950 Euro range.
Can you live off that 700 Euro range for the immigrant who missed years of contributions? Probably not. So, you will go down and apply for welfare supplement pay at the social office, and the government will dig into taxation revenue.....to find another 250-odd Euro for the rest of your bare essentials income.
Politicians standing and grinning? I'm guessing the smart guys who play with the numbers....know the whole story and just sit there shaking their head. It's nothing you'd worry about in 2016.....or 2026.....or even 2036. Somewhere around 2040 to 2045.....some folks will come up to ask how this immigration issue from 30 years ago will work. The reaction will be curious.