Monday, July 18, 2016

The Next Wave of Immigration?

In 1960....the total population of Turkey was around 25 million people.  From this group, a couple hundred thousand young men were sought as guest workers in Germany.  Most came....did a couple years of work, and took home a suitcase of money.  Some stayed.  There is this unique relationship between Turks and Germans to some degree.

By 1980, the population of Turkey had reached roughly 45 million (almost doubling in twenty years).  Not being involved in any war.....having some economic success....and confidence in the future helped.

By 2000, Turkey had gone up to around 62 million in population.  Tourism had taken off, with Germans coming in vast numbers for beach resort vacations.

Today, there are almost 75 million Turks.....if you counted those living outside of the's closer to 80 million.

As I had suggested over the weekend.....things have heated up and a number of journalists are now reporting that the idea of leaving Turkey is on the minds of a significant number of Turks.  They don't want to be in the midst of Erdogan-land.

The natural place to go onto?  Germany.

Five years ago.....before all this immigration hype and frustration....the majority of Germans (probably 80-percent) would have been in absolute favor of a totally open door, and accepting perhaps up to several million additional Turks into Germany.  Now?  It's hard to predict the public feeling.

How many Turks would want to leave?  My humble guess is that 10-percent (7.5 million) will seriously think about leaving.  These will be the younger people....particularly those who are more educated.  It doesn't mean they will leave, but they will sit down and study their options.  Staying in a hostile and frustrating land will be a challenge to some.

So, a fresh new immigration emergency in Germany?  A hundred thousand?  A million?   Four million?  Unknown.

Will Erdogan allow them to leave?  That would be question number two.

Would the EU now be stuck in a totally new problem....having paid three billion Euro for Erdogan to hold back the Syrians, but now facing several million frustrated Turks who won't stay in Turkey?

And all of this occurring just 18 months prior to a German national election?

Yeah, it's something different.

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