Sunday, April 30, 2017

French Election Situation

The Macron - Le Pen race is on in France, and about a week to go.  It's safe to say that Macron is around 16 points ahead of Le Pen and it's doubtful in seven days that Le Pen can change much about that.

But I noticed today from a Reuters piece....that a new poll came out and asked some critical questions to the French public.

In general....almost half the voting public doesn't believe either person can do much about the unemployment situation in France.  Unlike the Trump-talk of 2016....neither has done much of anything to suggest that they can fix this.  Le Pen should have sat down in 2016 and gotten a dozen smart business guys to talk about the future and how to inspire more jobs....but she apparently didn't think that way.

Almost a third of all voters also think that neither Macron or Le Pen will do much of anything to stop terror attacks.  The state of emergency underway now?  Expected to just continue matter who wins.  Le Pen has talked of expelling people but the courts would likely step in and stop most of that.  More cops?  That's been discussed and already in the implementation process....but you won't see any real effect for another two years, as they go recruit and train the new cops.

Oddly, they didn't ask about the EU-feeling among the general public.  My humble guess is that around 35-percent are anti-EU.

In some ways, I think that Le Pen ran a lite-campaign.  Maybe she figured she'd be edged out anyway and be unable to get past 35-percent.

Macron?  The empty-suit guy?  I think he's just begging for negativity to start up by the second year, as people figure out his weak platform and that he's really not well-equipped for the leadership job.

The shock if Le Pen did win?  You'd have to have a large segment of French stay home and refuse to vote for Macron.....and a large segment of socialists find some odd reason to vote for Le Pen. I doubt if this can occur.  But the EU shock would be dramatic.  They'd be sitting there for days trying to understand how Macron failed to get the necessary votes.

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