Monday, April 24, 2017

The Statistics Story

At some point today (Monday), an official report will be handed to the public by the Interior Minister (de Maiziere).  It's going to be a difficult report for journalists, intellectuals, and politicians to handle.  Basically, the Interior Minister says that crime number in 2016 show a hefty contribution by immigrants, migrants and asylum seekers.  The national numbers involving immigrants for crime investigation rose 57-percent, which worries the leadership within the Interior Ministry.

Hidden also within the numbers....more juvenile participants....both in violence and bodily harm.

Chief reason for migrant number surge?

There is this belief that a lot of young men arrived in 2014, 2015 and 2016 into Germany....and that a fair number drifted over into the occupation of crime.  For some, without a family connection or stable simply made sense.  You can also say that a fair number arrived without any real real occupation or skill-set....and found that welfare payments in Germany won't cut it.  Even if they did get a's a basic pay situation....eight to nine Euro an hour.  After you take out rent and heat from your check....there's just a limited or marginal amount of money left in the pot.

Chief reason for the juvenile issue?

No one took the statistics to the next level and asked if they relate to urban and rural splits....which I suspect they would show most of the juvenile surge came from major urban sectors of Germany.  If you toss around the 15-percent number of Germans now and still on welfare....there's not much positive to say out of life as a kid in this atmosphere.

Fixing the increase in crime?  All parties in the Bundestag, even the opposition folks....are super hyped-up on hiring more cops.  It's one of those amazing things.  You can't find a single political player in Berlin who is against the hiring of more cops now.  Time period for hiring more cops?'s the comical side of this might be five years before the increase in cops is really felt across the 16 states.  So, don't get too hopeful on things getting fixed soon.

One might look ahead over the next four years, and leading up to the 2021 national election....assuming that the crime problem continues and maybe even gets worse for 2017 and 2018.  In which case....a lot of pressure will occur with the Bundestag to kick young male migrants out of the country if arrested for serious crimes.

One suggestion from the ARD article was that more language training needs to occur.  But if you had burger-flipper skills and German only leads to a marginalized job future and no real hope.  So you drift over to crime anyway.

 So you come to the last part of this story.....why release a report like this?  Le Maiziere is slated to absolutely retire at the end of 2017.  He has no more interest in staying on, and is of retirement age.  I think he wants to stir the pot a bit.....with the Bundestag, Merkel, and the intellectual crowd.  He's basically saying that hiring more cops won't really fix the root cause of the crime issue in Germany.  You can discuss this in a hundred ways, but you come down to a large segment of people who have a very limited future...very unfocused on a path ahead....and a fairly easy entry into crime.

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