Tuesday, April 18, 2017

The Six-Way Situation

If you follow the French election business....we are just five days away from the top two winners going to the next round.  Folks are mostly looking at six possibilities:

Le Pen versus Macron
Le Pen versus Fillon
Le Pen versus Melenchon
Macron versus Fillon
Macron versus Melenchon
Fillon versus Melenchon

Roughly one-third of all French voters are indicating that they might just stay home....which means that traditional polls aren't really prepared for this six-way combo.

If you had only Melenchon (the communist guy) versus Le Pen (the far right candidate)....you could imagine thirty to forty percent of society staying home.

If you had Fillon (under investigation for fake pay over his wife) and Macron (the 'empty suit' guy with a seven-line resume)....you could imagine forty percent of society staying home.

If you had Le Pen versus Fillon....a bunch of non-right wing folks would likely stay home, with a large segment of French civil service employees voting for Le Pen because Fillon says he'll terminate their jobs.

Macron and Melenchon?  A bunch of right-wing or conservative folks would just stay home.

Screwed up?  This really explains why one-third of the public is talking about having NOT made up their mind on this election with only five days left.

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