Monday, April 24, 2017

The Outcome in France

Round one is wrapped up.

Macron (Progressive Party) and Le Pen (National Front) advance on.  Macron had 23.75-percent and Len Pen 21.50-percent).

Fillon, with his fake-pay scandal, had 19.90-percent, and Melenchon had 19.6-percent. Hamon from the Socialist Party rounded up things with 6.3-percent.

There are several observations that one can make out of the election.

1.  Urban vote results appear to show Macron getting 35-percent in most areas around France....Le Pen in most urban areas got from marginal numbers to 10-percent in the same areas.  Heartland affect is demonstrated.

2.  The Socialist Party and the Republicans were the two big losers out of this election.  Both had been major players in French politics for decades.  Together, they barely got to 26-percent of the public vote.  It's a massive indicator that the public have lost confidence with 'old' politics.

3.  Corruption used to be an acceptable part of French politics.  Something in this election occurred and shifted the corruption business to the unacceptable side of things.  The fake pay issue really killed off Fillon.  Right now.....he and his wife might get dragged into a court and charged.  My suspicion is that he will quietly come up with the money and offer to repay every penny if they halt the process.

4.  No matter who you watch from the European press, they all refer to Macron as an investment banker.  He was an investment portfolio handler for the Rothschild Bank. They hired him with the ultimate desire that he did what he claimed he was an expert at.....preventing trails for audit by the national authorities.  He was very successful at that.  Using the term 'banker' is mostly a joke....he was the portfolio manager and saved some special clients a lot of stress.

5.  Macron probably shocks the journalists the most because his party....the Progressive Party....has only existed for 13 months.  How were they financed?  No one seems interested in that amusing detail.

Looking ahead.  The final election occurs in two weeks.  I would speculate that Macron likely wins this with a 65-percent showing, and Le Pen might be able to generate at best a 35-percent showing (maybe even less). I would guess that fewer than a quarter of Fillon's voters, who ought to be the nearest base group, will be interested in Le Pen.  From the rest of the candidates....fewer than two-percent would slide to Le Pen.

What this means?  You can draw some conclusions:

1.  BREXIT negotiations with Macron as the French President will be fairly difficult, and I suspect that within the two year treaty occurs.  (my humble guess)

2.  Along about spring of 2018, some journalists in France will wake up and ask questions about the competence or capabilities of Macron.  "Empty suit" will be uttered, and by the end of 2018....his positive numbers with the French public will have fallen to the mid-30's.  By the summer of 2019....the public will be prepared for replacing him but they have to wait till April of 2022.

3.  Le Pen will quietly work on the legislative elections and ensure that the National Front does get a record number of seats.  She will still be around in 2022, and likely run one final time.

4.  Germany and the EU are very happy with Macron....mostly because he gives good speeches.  Zero chance of the EU dissolving (although Greece might eventually find itself removed).

5.  The cabinet figures under Macron?  Almost no French journalist has chatted about this.  The party, being new, doesn't have a bunch of known figures attached to it.  My humble guess is that it'll be a lot of business-related figures....some leading back to Rothschild.

My Le Pen view is that she needs to take the National Front onto the next stage.  As corruption occurs with the Progressive Party bosses....challenge them and make the public feel accountable for putting them into positions of power.

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