Sunday, May 14, 2017

An Odd BREXIT Player?

For roughly 11 months, the EU has hyped and chatted about the harsh nature that the UK needs to be treated in BREXIT.  To some degree, in order to prevent more nations from thinking about is a logical thought process.

Today, Focus (a major German news magazine) sat down and put out a full scale study that the German Finance Ministry has been doing for a number of months.  In some ways, the EU folks should have done this first before getting hyped up on some harsh treaty deal with the UK.

What the German Finance Minister (Schauble) has come to discover with the analysis of his that Germany in particular, and one might wonder about the rest of the EU....have to worry about this new future with the UK.  Punishing them might not be that wise of a decision.

There's a 35-page report that Schauble has put out on this topic and I'm guessing a fair number of German politicians (to include Merkel) are reading the report this weekend and facing a new reality.

The one thing that Schauble points out is that England might eventually figure out the scheme to be a tax-haven island and draw German and European business operations there as their gateway into Europe.  This would create all kinds of investigations and threats later, with various companies fighting to keep cheaper tax positions in play.

Schauble also goes to point out one little issue of grave concern for Germany....the EU has a spending plan in it's mind and with the UK gone....the Germans will be drawn to make up the bulk of the missing 'loot' (tax revenue) that is needed to meet EU obligations.  You could be looking at a billion or two extra each make up for the Brits being gone.

I'm not going to suggest that the EU position will erode on harsh treatment of the UK for BREXIT, but you might have several Germans who show up and want to talk behind close doors and find some compromise to ensure the negatives that Schauble has pointed out.....come to be solved in some creative way.

In the end, you may very well see some type of Norwegian-type relationship created (they are close to the EU but not a member).  In return for this type of situation....the Brits might have to go and promise not to become a tax-haven for European companies.  All this effort by London banks to relocate into EU member states?  You might wake up in the spring of 2018 to realize that while some banks did carry out their movement-plan....the bulk are staying in London and able to operate.

BREXIT in the end?  It might be not be as harsh as some people think.  Strangely enough, you'd have to give credit to some German financial wiz, for studying the whole landscape.

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