Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Macron and the Future

In a couple of days, the French election is over, and it's a 75-percent chance that Macron will win.  For Le Pen.....she'd have to have one-third of the voters from the primary election just stay home, and an enormous change with some socialist voters seeing her as a better choice than Macron.

So the way forward with Macron?

The Progressive Party is more or less....a one-man party.  The legislative election?  It's set for 11-18 June.  Based on news reports, I have my doubts that Macron's new party gets more than a dozen seats (577 seats up for grabs).  That means Macron has no opportunity to write law or bring much change.

The Socialist Party will likely win 300-plus seats and control the theme of leadership over the country.

In terms of the EU....Macron will just rubber-stamp their agenda and proceed forward.  The UK can expect Macron to be mostly unhelpful.

When terror acts occur over the next year.....Macron will make a speech or two....but his ability to reassure the public will be limited.  By the end of 2018, I think a majority of French will be ready for another election, but it'll be spring of 2022 before you have another election.

The 'empty-suit' guy?  I think the general public will ask what exactly it was that convinced them to side with a guy who had no elected job prior to this.

The curious thing which one might attach themselves to...is that the French were looking for a Trump-like guy who would actually bring jobs back to France.  That's something that neither Macron or Le Pen could do.  In fact, none of the top six candidates were promising much on job creation or growth.

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