Monday, May 8, 2017

France Election Results

Macron wins (66-percent).  Le Pen (33-percent).

Based on commentary from France 24, it appears that the worst areas for Le Pen were in urbanized areas or big cities.  In the rural where her strength was found.

The big speech by Macron from last evening?  It's a curious piece.  He says it's time to "fix" Europe.  The translation from the CNN coverage I watched last night....went along the lines that the EU needs to evolve and fix some of its problems, and he (Macron) would be making these repairs.

My humble opinion is that a lot of people got swept up into JFK-enthusiasm or Obama-thrills, and the young image of Macron carries a lot of strength (just forget about the 7-line resume or experience).

The problem ahead?  The legislative election is about six weeks away, and Macron's Progressive Party won't carry much weight.  The Republicans and the Socialist Party will likely win 65-percent of the seats.  Le Pen's National Front might be able to win 20-percent of the 577 seats.  Macron will have to work with a fractured situation in getting his legislation done for the next five years.

Le Pen?  She's not finished but she needs to evolve the National Front and develop a job or business growth policy that the general public believes in.  A lot of her enthusiast votes came not only from young voters (18-to-25), but also from the gays of France.

Provided her health stays good....she will be around in five years to compete one more time.  Macron?  My humble view is that the max of his appeal will likely dissolve by the end of 2018, and he'll be like real public enthusiasm for the remaining three years.  He'll be like Hollande....serving one period, and then leaving.  Maybe in ten years, another return to power.

As for the suggestion of emails leak?  The news media in France and Europe has done a big job in containing this....suggesting a lot of fake emails in the mix but providing no real evidence of that.  The suggestion that Macron might have a secret bank account somewhere?  It'll lay there for few months with some minor investigation just to say absolutely no, and that will just end.  It would amaze me if he were that stupid to have such an account and leave a trail back to it.  On the other hand, he is young and financially might have been stupid enough to think it'd be easy to hide.

As for the leak coming from the Russians?  I'm not convinced of that.  Nothing from the news media can establish that as a fact.

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