Wednesday, May 17, 2017

The Statistical Game with German Elections

Out of the 2013 German national election, five parties made the cut (needing 5-percent or more).  Those included: CDU, CSU, SPD, Greens, and the Linke Party.

This meant that they would divide up the 598 seats between the five.  Well....four years have passed now.

This 2017 election?  It's a curious thing.  Most polls now expect the AfD and FDP parties to get the 5-percent minimum.

If you do the math, that means that everyone will be giving up some seats....even if the other parties do win in the same fashion as in 2013.

This will end up forcing most of the parties to engage upon the more senior and older members....suggesting that they go ahead and retire.

As for the win capability of the FDP and AfD?  Some are suggesting that the FDP might be able to take 8-percent.  The AfD is polling nationally around 9-percent (down a couple of points from the spring of 2016).

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