The War: 1 Mar 2022

 1.  That idea of a no-fly zone?  The US says it won't happen because it'd require a US presence.

2.  Nord Stream II company in trouble?  Shell owned around 27-percent of the company, and says that it's ready to 'dump' their shares.  Any takers?  I seriously doubt that anyone will give them true value.  Someone might see lower risk if they knew Putin was going to be gone in the next year.

3.  ISCoJ says it's going to start monitoring things and prepare war crimes cases.  I doubt that Putin cares, but the next five levels down with military officers are probably asking some questions.

4.  EU and US talking over more sanctions of the economic variety.  I watched N-TV do interviews on Moscow streets, and a lot of people were finding their credit cards and access to cash as a problem now.  

5.  Moscow stock exchange shutdown?  All they say is that there is too much negativity, and things will be closed till the 5th of March.  My humble belief of the 5th?  I suspect it'll open for a couple of hours....drop another 25-percent, then close for another five to seven days.   

6.  Singapore banks pushing back against Russia?  I noticed in business news.....a number of the big banks that you'd go to for lines of credit.....are saying 'no, we don't need your business'.  

For the purchase of raw materials in the Pacific region, the Russians were using these banks.  So, there's probably a couple of lesser-known banks willing to take the business....for a higher price, at least for the time-being..

7. The IIF says on banking 'power'....Russia is fairly screwed for 2022.  All of these imposed freezes of assets is going to make for a long-term problem.  Double-digit inflation is guaranteed for Russia at this point for 2022.

8.  Turkey has agreed to block the entry into the Black Sea for all warships.  How long this will last?  Unknown.  

9.  There was a piece written up in WELT to suggest that tactical nukes might be used on the Ukraine if the conventional war doesn't solve the Russian ambitions.  This would reshape virtually everyone's remaining trust in Russia.  I can't see the Russian military leadership agreeing in this use. 

Putin Speaks

 Putin and Macron talked today.   Putin says he wants four things to end the attacks:

1.  Demilitarization of Ukraine 

    Unlikely to ever be agreed upon now by the Ukraine.

2.  Recognition of Crimea as part of Russia

    Very unlikely to occur at this point.

3.  Neutrality of Ukraine 

    I believe they mean....no NATO status....no EU status....nothing.  Very unlikely to occur at this point.

4.  "Denazification" of the Ukraine government

    Puzzling statement.  Not explained in a rational way. 

True or False?

 N-TV brought this up in the last hour....which may or may not be true.

A Russian state news agency (Ria Novosit) had a pre-written 'victory' commentary written and it was dated to be released this past Saturday morning. 

The article/commentary came up today....some believe by accident.

The guy who wrote it?  Pyotr Akopov.

It leads off "A new world is being born before our eyes. Russia's military operation in Ukraine has ushered in a new era. Russia is restoring its unity - the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe of our history, its unnatural distortion is over."

It was up for a short period of time....some folks downloaded it, and it's being passed around.

Screw-up?  I'm likely to believe they got hacked, and this commentary was written by some pro-Ukraine guy and done to embarrass the Ria Novosti folks. 

If it were a true document, then the idiots in Moscow had a schedule planned out and anticipated the bulk of the mission was supposed to be done by Saturday morning.

Fake?  I can't believe that they had this on a unsecure server.  

Odds of Putin Being 'Fired'?

 Ha, it's about a one in fifty chance.....if I were making this a betting situation.

First, if you did round up the top ten generals in Moscow.....they might all agree that he's not functioning at full capacity, and some things he's uttered in the past twelve months have been BS.  None of them are willing to stage a coup over this.

Second, if you did round up the top dozen members of 'United Russia' (Putin's party)....probably half would readily endorse Putin, and the rest would agree that he's not rational in his comments.  Firing him?  No one has the guts.

Third, if you round up an average group of Russians (working-class), probably three-quarters agree that he's not rational or competent at this point, but none of them have the guts to fire him.

At the point where he issues orders to nuke Europe or the US....then something might occur where the generals stage a confrontation.  

Tough Talk

 Anne Will's chat forum ran last night (9:45 PM, ARD), and there's a fairly dramatic piece in the middle (about 90 second) where some blunt talk was laid out.

You can see the 90-second video here.

The guy talking?  Karl Schlögel, fairly known historian and expert on Eastern Europe.

His 90-second piece carries a good bit of emotion and conviction....some rather direct talk over the 'Putin-war'.  

Kinda amazing how things have been reshaped in the past ten days.  

How Many Days Can Russia Manage A Full-Scale War?

 This is a debatable thing.

If just half of the damage numbers that the Ukraine talks about....are true, then there are some significant losses....for what amounts to a 2-star military force holding off the Russians. 

Here is the remarkable thing....this week....there's likely to be 15k anti-tank weapons/Stinger missiles to be delivered, and the 2-star force bumps up to a 3-star force.  

It will develop by next weekend into a ground force versus ground force situation....basically a guerrilla war mess...because of the wrecked Russian armor sitting on roads, or laying in ditches.

This talk that Belarus will deploy in their army?  Well....there's some odd chatter that protesters in Belarus will come out and stage more demonstrations.....knowing that a fair amount of the Army is deployed and not able to support the police.   If you were asking me for the potential for a Belarus coup within the next ten days....I might give it better than average odds.

Economically, the rush is on in Moscow and across the nation....to find something (gold, silver, crypto-currency, dollars, Euro, Yen) to protect their assets.  The next seven days will be rough on the Ruble, and the Central Bank will be working hard to avoid total bank collapse.

Putin having a bunch of Einstein-like people to manage all of this?  I doubt it.  They will be out trying to find a safe currency for their assets as well.

To be honest, the Russians could run this little war like the Chechen War (20 months), with around 5,700 Russians soldiers dead at the end (always disputed and some suggest the number up around 14k).  But they didn't have economic conditions starving off society during that mid-1990s period.  They also didn't have a threat of nuclear war existing to get non-Russian attention.

I might add....the Chechen War didn't present a threat to stability of Belarus, and you really can't have them fail (oddly, there are a number of companies in the country that make Russian military hardware).  The Russian military machine would collapse in some form, if their sole source 'maker' dissolved away.

I'm not a rocket scientist, but I'd say Putin has a 30-day window to really wrap this up and get whatever 'gift' desired.  Beyond that, with a bunch of 'destroyed' Russian tanks laying on the side of the road....there's just not a positive picture.  

Just An Odd Thing

 I've probably watched at least ten YouTube videos....all different scenes/locations, where a Russian rocket impacted in the ground/street, and no explosion (unexploded ordnance situation).  

From my old military days....this was one of those thing emphasized and always meant some key element of the base exercise dealt with the situation.

But it just makes you wonder....out of every hundred fired, how many failed?  Ten percent?  Twenty percent?  Just crappy workmanship, weather-effect, or a design flaw?  You just wonder about this.  

The War: Monday Morning Prospective

 1.  Those anti-tank/Stinger missiles promised by Germany to the Ukraine?  The current talk is that they will be there within 'hours' (not days).  

2.  Russia's key interest rate, run by the central bank?  Going to 20-percent this morning....to avoid a bank crisis.  The EU also put a 'freeze' on the Russian assets within European banks.  Ruble in collapse?  The market (at 8 AM) was very unkind to the Ruble (a dollar at around 7 AM was buying 109 Rubles).

3.  World oil prices (at 6 AM) was reported up by 6-percent.

4.  The European side of the Sberbank probably will collapse this week (HQs in Austria).  The ECB was talking about this before 5 AM, and only by actions of the Russian central bank.....would they survive (very unlikely at this point).  

5.  Early in the AM, if you view N-24....the Pentagon has given examples of poor planning by the Russian military in this invasion.  A lot of this has to do with logistics, fuel shortages and limited orders to Russian troops.

6.  Talk of the EU now accepting the Ukraine as a member?  That started up and appears a 'sure-thing'.  I might suggest the Russians won't be happy about this.

7.  Russian nuke missiles in Kaliningrad?  This was brought up over the weekend, and it has a few Germans now scared over the threat.  To be honest, they've been around the region there for years, but it's different with the status order given by Putin. 

8.  Peace talks?  Well....something related to that will occur today.  Anyone's guess how this will go.

"Putin Seems Erratic"

 Yesterday, Condoleezza Rice was interviewed (having met Putin on a couple of occasions), and just remarked that he seems 'erratic'.  A number of folks have talked about this over the past week.  So you go to the various problems/rumors:

1.  In a big speech to his security council (4 days ago) he cited the chief reasons to invade the Ukraine....was involving neo-Nazis and drug addicts.  The talking-heads (news journalists) just sat there....wondering where the heck this comment really came from.

2.  Back in September 2021, there was a long written piece that talked about limited Putin appearances, that he seemed slow in his 'step', and suggested cognitive decline. 

3.  Back in early September 2021, a big round of Covid struck the Putin inner circle....at least thirty of them lingered through it.  Putin himself mentioned this event.  No one has suggested that Putin had it, but you have to wonder....if he did, is he going through foggy-brain syndrome?

4.  One health expert says that Putin is going through hubris syndrome.....where you take unacceptable risks for a reason, do reckless things, and generally disregard people.  It happens a good bit with older people (Putin is 70 years old later this year).  

5.  This rumor of Putin recently having stomach cancer, and possibly on some pain killers for the treatment?  That rumor exists as well.  Zero facts so far. 

6.  The talk of Putin having limited human contact during the past 2 years because of Covid?  That rumor exists.

7.  The suggestion of Parkinsons?  Well.....he has an issue with his leg (he actually leg problems but doesn't attribute to anything but old injuries).

8.  That coughing attack in November while doing a news piece?  

Most of these stories are just rumor material.  The cough and the leg  problems could just be normal.  

Here is the thing.....if we end up in a nuclear war with missiles thrown around, and three years later....in the clean-up action, we find that he and most of his staff all had foggy-brain syndrome from Covid, and that he was on pain-killers for his leg problems....history will be extremely tough on his actions (much like Hitler).  

Fear keeping the political party or the inner circle from dumping him?  There's no doubt that this problem is a significant situation.  

Q-and-A: Germany: 28 Feb 2022

 1.  Scholz and team 'shined' at the Bundestag yesterday?

Fairly dramatic episode, as various members did their talk yesterday (Sunday) at the Bundestag.  

AfD Party?  They are fairly supportive of Russia, and this is going to take a hit for public support for them.  

2.  Talk of keeping the nuke/coal power plants open longer?

Well, yes.  All nuke power is supposed to shut down by end of 2022.  All coal power is to be shut down in about 10 years.  A review of the situation, and new realities going on.  Even the Green Party is open to the review.

3.  Belarus getting involved in the war against the Ukraine today?

Rumors started up.  One can ask....if there were 150,000 Russian troops at the border on day one.....there's certainly not that number inside of the Ukraine right now.  Logic would ask....why bring in 5,000 to 10,000 Belarus guys?  A lot of thing don't make mathematical sense at present.

4.  US hinting that war crimes might be brought against Russian officers?

That story comes out of the US, and there's a collection of reports/images being mounted.  It's done as a hint to the generals that they won't just walk away at the end.

5.  Russia trying to make a comparison of the guerilla war tactics of the Ukraine like ISIS?

This guy (Russian ambassador at the UN) tried to stumble his way through a talk....claiming that this was like ISIS was doing in Syria to Russian troops.  The thing is....ISIS didn't have a lot of anti-tank weapons which are being used currently against the Russian tanks.  

Ukraine Chatter

 I'll reference this story to Riho Terras, who is an Estonian guy (mostly a politician now), but was a military officer for a number of years.  He's a fairly educated guy, and member of the EU Parliament.  So Terras has these 'connections' from Estonia.  Some are retired military....some might have connections back to Russian Oligarchs.

He went to chatting this weekend over what he knows.  Value?  Well....you don't know.

Five key things:

1.  Putin's original plan was a 4-day 'mission complete' invasion.  In the military sense, there was not a lot of substance to the plan.

2.  Putin is apparently fairly aggravated now.  

3.  In terms of rockets.....there was a max of 4 days worth in the mix.  The Russians haven't used the whole supply up.....fearing it goes past 4 days.

4.  Rifles/bullets are the only thing that the Russian Army has in abundance.

5.  Because of a lack of funds,  resources and weapons....on the Russians part, there is a fear for Putin that if it goes past ten days....it's the Russians who are stuck in a negotiation problem.

Any of this accurate?  Well, that's the problem, you just don't know how these sources pan out.  It is accurate to say that deploying a massive number of Russian troops into this situation....has a money value, and trying to say you want some minor piece of the Ukraine at the end....if Ukraine refuses to agree, then the war continues.  That money-pit just deepens and gets the Russians into a more costly mess.

If Putin did all of this, and the negation part of this doesn't show acquisition of the far eastern section of the country....then what the hell was this all about?

E-Car Chatter

 I noticed a 10-line story today....via Focus....where the first city in Germany has issued a regulation...where E-cars can't be parked in underground garages.  Reason?  Well....these odd fires that have occurred (some while charging...some while the car was sitting there).

A trend?  I would say this....as time passes and more of these E-car fires occur, more regulations will be written, and it's going to be tough in finding an acceptable place to park your battery car....other than out on the street (in the open).

My personal view?  I have a carport (covered) and I might be willing to park an E-car there, but it's right next to the house.  All that pro-safety training from my Air Force period would click on, and I'd have a big problem parking a car there.  

This hindering people from buying E-cars?  This is just one single town, but if you came up in 2024, and find fifty cities in Germany with various rules (special fire alarms/video cameras/etc) then you'd ask the question how safe the E-cars are.  

Observations: 27 Feb 2022

 1.  As of Sunday morning, Chancellor Scholz has done something that Chancellor Merkel avoided for years and years....agreeing to spend more than 2-percent of the yearly GDP on the German military.  Yes, rather shocking.

I would add....he worded it in an odd way...saying it would come out of a 'special' fund.  

2.  As of 3 PM on Sunday.....all of German airspace is closed to Russian flights, period.

3.  The Bundestag agreed today (Sunday) that more military aid for the Ukraine will occur.  No one says in what fashion.  Some of this will be announced within the next day or two.

4.  Someone brought up this odd topic.....back in mid-September 2021....most all of the insiders to Putin (probably around thirty of them, as the story goes)....had Covid at the same time.  Putin?  He seems to have avoided it, or he just avoids saying he had it.  

But after this Covid-drama, they all got more or less attached to the screw-Ukraine attitude, and the planning for the invasion took off.  I noted a comment via social media where someone just asked the question....did this whole group (Putin included) just get Covid-brain fog?

First, there's various opinions over Covid-brain fog, with the suggestion that 20-to-30 percent of people end up with it, and demonstrate declined mental abilities.  

Second, there's this odd opinion that if you already suffer from stress....it actually projects the declined mental issues more profoundly.

If we did wake up in a WW III situation.....a world on fire, and then realize the whole Kremlin crew were on a brain fog event....then what?  Pretty crazy theory, I must admit.

5.  Chancellor Scholz announced today (Sunday) that Brunsbüttel and Wilhelmshaven will both be new hydrogen/natural gas ports, as the government will ramp up funding and go full-speed ahead.  Greens hinting as long as they can handle hydrogen import.....they won't say anything or go prevent the work.

If you asked over start of this....it's doubtful that any dirt will be moved in 2022, and it's probably 2025 before you see this operational.  

The hint here.....they will buy LNG from someone else beside Russia.

Also,  he remarked that a coal and gas reserve should be built up (note, he didn't say 'would').  This gas reserve idea has been discussed for years, and nothing ever occurs.  

6.  Bahn doing its part.  German railway said that six trains a day...a lengthy German train will run from Warsaw, to Germany, and any Ukrainian (must be able to show a passport) can ride freely upon it.  Refugee centers are being prepared for the Ukrainians.

7.  The EU is reviewing this idea of blocking all Russian-flagged vessels from EU ports.  To be honest, I don't there is that many to effect the situation.

8.  Ukraine releasing prisoners from jail/prison....who agree to fight.  Odd episode brewing here....there two former commanders who were convicted of murder/torture...who are asking they be pardoned, and allowed to fight Russians.  This is one those things which might sound good on paper, but just how far would they go in fighting the Russians, and would they become reckless?

9.  Apparently, there are around 6,000 Chinese citizens in the Ukraine, and the Chinese government has said now that NONE of them will be evacuated.  Some were on construction projects....some in colleges.  

10.  Ukraine is discussing the idea of a 'international' fighting force (volunteers from abroad).  Pretty wild idea, and could end up with hundreds of Germans on this 'adventure'.  Whether Scholz and his coalition would bless this or not....unknown.  It's typically been a no-go for the German government in the past.   

11.  In the past hour or two.....Putin has put all nuclear forces on 'alert'....saying NATO is now threatening Russia.  If you were to gauge German public feelings right now.....it went up a good bit, and it's the closest moment to war since 1945.  

12.  The Ukraine has agreed to meet....just NOT on the border of Belarus....to have talks.  No terms.  I doubt if you can take anything positive out of this.  

Observations: 27 Feb 2022

 1.  Germany providing more weapons to the Ukraine?

It gets interesting.  Around a thousand anti-tank rockets, and 500 Stingers (you'd use it against helicopters, tracked vehicles, tanks)....are being sent to the Ukraine.  For Russian invasion forces....it's a harsh reality that upon arrival....probably a couple dozen Russian vehicles (a few helicopters in the mix) will be taken down daily.  

2.  Is Putin behind on some schedule?

I've sat and listened to various 'Doctor Doom' characters on German/French/UK TV make this statement.  

There is probably some schedule, and it probably says by X-day....these tasks are done.  It's anyone's guess however, if they are on schedule, or behind schedule.  

Frankly, if I were the Russian general in charge....I might be worried over current results and feel more 'Putin-heat'.  This 'war' has a limit and I just can't see Putin happy if it continues past thirty days.  

3.  Russians short on money?

Some German journalists (in Moscow)....noted that at the international ATM machines....folks were lined up and trying to get any currency except Rubles.  One guy was observed trying to get a significant amount of Euro, and all the machine would allow for the day was eighty Euro.  

You might say that the ordinary Russian doesn't care....but if you had 'status' and real wealth....as a Russian right now, you might be worried over the coming weeks and this 'cut-off' by the west.  

4.  Accurate reporting from either the Ukrainians or Russians?

Well....you just don't know.  This morning via N-TV.....the Ukrainians say they killed some Russian general in charge of Russian special operations group (General Magomed Tushayev), and took a fair amount of weapons.  Maybe it's true.....maybe it's BS.  Putin might be trying to ring-up Tushayev and just get a off-line answer.  The problem is that people sit there in Germany and get BS info.....without anyway of confirming things.

5.  Musk activating additional Star-link satellites over the Ukraine?

Yes, it really didn't take much to get the satellites into position and provide more internet access.  

6.  Russian banks excluded from the Swift transfer system now?

It took an awful lot of talking (especially to Germany) to get this united view.  There are two lesser known transfer organizations still out there and the Russia will turn to those.  It does put some problems in place for the Oligarch folks.  

7.  Youtube limiting Russian state media?

All you can say is that the state media folks got on the normal regular 'bad-boy' list for Youtube.  It basically means they are demonetarized (unable to make cash profits off their 'channel').  A big deal?  No.....there are thousand-odd people who get demonetarized every single week.  

8.  German public TV (ARD/ZDF) selling the 'Ukraine-brand'?

There's an enormous amount of video/interviews going on.....Ukrainian women crying over leaving their husbands behind....Ukrainian older folks in desperation about what may or may not happen....Ukrainian kids highly emotional as they enter Poland as refugees.  

A lot of Germans are getting attached to the Ukrainians and their situation.  Accepting refugees is just one part of this.  Negative feelings over the Russians is another part.  Demand pressure being put on Shultz and the coalition government is growing.  You also have to put in the dynamics of the anti-war crowd of Germany (those who grew out of the 1980s/1990s).  

9.  You kinda wonder if the Russian military has all this vast experience/willing nature for some protracted war.

Since 1945, there's been two 'wars' for Russia.  The Afghanistan episode was deemed a major failure in the end (much like the US experience in Vietnam), and the Chechen Wars (I/II) were mostly a guerrilla war situation that evolved much like Afghanistan.  

Several of the 'Doctor Doom' analysts have appeared on TV and rendered the suggestion that the Russians often talk big but end up with a mess that isn't worth discussing.

One odd feature of this war is that video feed across the globe is immediate.  When some rocket hits an apartment building....the scene is broadcast across the globe in seconds.  Some South African kid is watching it....some grandmother in Finland is viewing it, and even some remote Alaskan village can see the destruction.  None of this is hidden (like it was in Chechen episodes.

10.  Jürgen Trittin of the German Green Party warning of a Third World War?

Yeah, he made a statement on Saturday, and was pretty blunt in that this whole thing could get out of control....start affecting other countries, and NATO would be dragged into a direct confrontation.

Trittin is an older Green member....mid-60s, and one of the top ten more recognized party members in Germany.  

11.  All of this leading back around to a repeat of the 1991 Soviet coup d'état attempt?

It's a silly discussion because that coup was an attempt by the 'old' Guard (the remaining Communists) to restage the government and bring their brand of stability back into reality.  It failed miserably (lasting three days).

I might agree that from the United-Russia political party....there might be half of the members who question where this war will lead onto....but no one has any willpower to challenge Putin or to take down the government.  

However, there is this element of the Oligarch 'world' and to suggest to them that it's not a big deal to see twenty-percent or forty-percent of their wealth evaporate, and they being willing to accept that?  No.....their rage might have some value in the days ahead.

It wouldn't shock me if various fortunes were being herded out of Russian banks, and put into a safe atmosphere, with little value put into the Ruble. 

12. The Finance Director of GAZPROM dead (suicide)?

Well....they found his body (St Petersburg).  They suggest it was suicide, but it's anyone's guess.  

A big deal?  This was the mega natural gas company, who sold Russian natural gas to Europe.  It's going to beg questions over problems within the company.  

Maybe some members of the company were peeved over money....maybe the guy was taking a cut of the cash.  You just don't know.  

Roid-Rage?

 About 25 years ago, I was in final year or two of the Air Force and had this one single airman that I supervised.  The kid (then 22) was consumed for weight-lifting, fitness, nutrition, and looking 'buff'.  

In an average week, he was probably putting twenty hours into this 'hobby.  After work, there was a 90-minute work-out Monday through Friday.  Saturdays were mostly reserved for bike-riding, hiking, and swimming.  

This was around when the pictures of Russia's Putin in the wild came up.....showing him as 'buff' (obviously he was lifting some weights and spending a fair amount of time on fitness).

So one day.....the airman and I got into this discussion....how you'd keep looking 'buff' when you advanced into your 40s and 50s.  He'd spent a lot of time discussing this topic with older guys.  Most admitted they were using caffeine and energy drinks to keep their level of energy high enough, and were barely cutting back on hours at the gym.  So I asked about the 60s.

Well....one or two of the older guys admitted that they'd started on steroids in their fifties....and were still doing it as they advanced toward late 60s.  

The topic of 'roid-rage' came up.  Definition?  Behavior typically changes, with our attitude more aggressive.  Verbal aggression and violent threats are typical once you've dosed up to that level.  As he noted....a couple of wrestlers had started show problems and were violent toward their friends and wives.

Over the past week, that conversation has lingered in my mind.  

So I've lingered over this crazy idea that what you see on TV with Putin and his chatter....is what you'd get with a 69-year-old guy, who was dosing up on steroids for his fitness image.  

Does he recognize it?  I doubt it, and those in the inner circle probably have watched him escalate and not grasped what this attitude relates to.  

This whole Ukraine thing.....leading back to roid-rage?  Yeah, that's my suggestion.  If true?  You probably need to push your worry up a notch....that he might get a wild idea over something, and just imagine an illusion. 

Ukraine Rocket Image

 Last night, I sat and watched a news piece (RTL news) that showed a typical Ukrainian street, and here in the middle of it was a rocket (I would guess and say it was a S-8 rocket....small in nature)....impacted into the street, but a dud.  I would say about one-third of it was in the asphalt, and the rest (unexploded) just in plain sight over folks walking around.

Now, I've been through various training episodes while in the Air Force (years ago), and there's generally one major fact stuck in my head about unexploded ordnance.....you never go messing with the ordnance, or standing near it.

Yet here was some 65-year old Ukrainian guy....getting his wife to take the picture while he held the fin on end.

Just shaking my head.

There's probably a dozen people around the unexploded ordnance, and they could have easily been killed....including the RTL camera guy.

Someone coming along to resolve the problem?  It may be days, weeks, or months before some qualified ordnance guy comes to fix this mess.  

A quality problem with Russian ordnance?  Well....it's anyone's guess.  

Nazi Stuff

 I sat last night and watched a Putin 'chat' where he assessed the events of the day, and proudly announced that denazification had been successful in the Russian attack on the Ukraine.

To rationally get this thought in your mind....you have to assume that Nazis were all over the place in the Ukraine....not just for the past year or two....but maybe for decades.

At that state of mind, with your head 'loose' (fumes coming off a whiskey sour or two).....you'd then come to this rational thought....being next to Russia....that this Nazification had likely crossed over and already infected Russia as well.  So, logic would dictate....Putin needs to also invade Russia....to halt the Nazis.

With another drink or two....you'd then assume that Nazification had also spread to Poland, Mongolia, China and even Mexico.....so it'd make sense for Putin to invade other countries....to rid the world of Nazis.

Adding a drink or two on top of that....you'd ask why the Nobel Peace Prize folks can't give him a prize for ridding the world of the evil Nazis?  

With all this Nazi chatter, it just makes me wonder....did the war end in 1945, or are we on some level-nine Nazi war agenda?

Crap, Russian TV must broadcast Nazi-fear-porn around the clock like they do in Germany.....to make this such a big issue.  

New Gin Drink

 For the past week, if you've been watching German commercial TV, there's been this commercial blitz from the Gordon's Gin company.

The new product?  Well....a non-alcoholic gin.  Maybe it's been around for a while, but no one really noticed it.  It's hard to go a full hour without it being displayed on TV.

It comes in a nice Gordon's glass bottle.  It's zero-percent alcohol.  It has roughly 3 calories per serving.  Cost? Around 11.90 to 12.90 Euro, per bottle.

I sat and viewed the whole thing.  Frankly, up until the past three years, I was never much of a gin guy.....preferring beer, apple wine, whiskey, rum, or cognac.  After some cruise.....I got hooked on gin sours.

Normally, a regular gin would be around 70-to-80 proof....not zero.

What you'd typically get is a wheat mixture matched up with juniper berries....to give a tangy taste.  In this non-alcohol role?  Well....it's mostly water with some juniper berries....non-aged, and you drink it that way.  Worth 12 Euro?  It's hard to find any grocery store with juniper berries offered up, unless you were talking freeze-dried and in a six-Euro baggy.  You could take that....grind them up and just add it to your German tap water....for less than 20 cents per glass (a lot cheaper than the bottle).

For some reason, I just don't see this product making a huge attraction in Germany.  

Observations: 26 Feb 2022

 1.  Someone brought this up....that the coalition in Germany (SPD-Green-FDP) was mostly going to ease people out of Covid, square the economical chaos,  and do great things for the environment.

With the 'Putin-War'....they have to modify their brand/message, or fail in a miserable way.

2.  Some irrational chief of the ISS space station operation said in a public statement that maybe he'd issue orders to close it down, and send the station down over Europe/US. 

Just a huge number of irrational and dumb comments being made.  This would trigger a lot of people to just edge out of space station relations with the Russians.

3.  Defense budget in Germany going up?

Well....what is said is that the German army is NOT ready for war (maybe going back almost 30 years).  So the FDP wants to escalate the budget....meaning some environmental projects won't be funded.  The SPD has a couple of folks fighting this increased military budget business.

4.  At the end of this Russian 'war'.....there will end up being Russian National Guardsmen for years.  A  state of occupation? Just like Afghanistan turned into?

5.  Whatever energy plan that the coalition had for the election period last year....is crapped out, with the 'Putin-War'.  

6.  N-TV says this morning....that based on 'action'.....there just aren't a lot of the 150,000 Russian troops being used in the invasion.

True or false?  Unknown.  Maybe there were never 150,000 troops on the border (anyone's guess what the actual number was to start with).

7.  Twitter and Facebook stopped pro-Russia ad's.  

8.  There was a piece today off N-TV discussing Chinese private commentary to the Russians.  It seems like the Chinese are asking where exactly this is leading off to, and maybe the original intent is different from  what they see today. Expansion of NATO is still seen as a bad thing to the Chinese.

9.  NATO's fast-reaction-force is being sent out.  Bundeswehr orders?  Report to Slovakia.  

10.  UEFA (the European soccer league folks) wants GAZPROM (Russian natural gas company) off their sponsor list.  

11. Former Chancellor Merkel robbed?  Well....what's said is that she went with bodyguards to a Berlin supermarket, and some guy stole her wallet.  Likely to be turned into a joke but she should have dragged her husband along for 'real' protection.  

12.  German federal Health Minister calling for drastic reduction in meat consumption?  

Yeah, and he was careful not to suggest more taxes.  I'm guessing some massive government PR-campaign will occur.  If you did the analysis from the 1970s to now....it's about 10-percent less meat consumed overall.   

Saar Voting Trends

 There's a state election coming up in the Saarland (far west of Germany, smaller state).  The Wahl-o-mat has been put up.

What is a Wahl-o-mat?  It is a list of questions to which you think about....saying pro, negative or neutral, and at the end....it says you ought to vote for this party to get what you desire.  So, onto the questions (I found these interesting.....considering the nature of the state):

1.  Should French be taught in all schools (in the Saarland)?

- Note: it's next to France, and probably half of all businesses have an occasional French customer.  French is typically not a language that schools offer unless it's a gymnasium or private school.

2. Should 30 kph be applied to all streets in the state?

- Trend thing....50 kph is now normal for urban areas, and 30 kph is only for residential areas.  So this is to rework the system and only be 30 kph.

3.  Expansion of wind-power should be stopped?

- Another trend thing....a number of states want to hinder or limit wind-generators be installed.  Federal policy is to continue adding them.

4.  Voting age reduced to 16?

- Trend thing....in various states, they allow 16 year olds the right to vote in district and state elections (yet to occur for federal elections).

5.  Shops open to 10 PM in Saarland?

- Trend thing, where in most states....grocery stores are allowed to stay open to 10 PM.

6.  Mandate for everyone to get vaxed-up against Covid.

7.  Approve more areas for residential housing?

- Some towns throughout Germany are 'finished' with new housing approval situations.  You can buy property and tear down old buildings....but they don't want to flip farm property into urban property.

8.  Parents should pay a bigger chunk of money for child-care?

- Typically, states pay a sum of money, and it might be almost half of what it costs for a kid to be in pre-school situations.

9.  Organic farming ought to be promoted by the government.....over regular farming.

10. All asylum seekers in the Saarland....should be limited to one single center, until their application is approved.

11.  Making a rule that when building new roads or renovating a road.....a bike path 'must' be built as well.

Trend item, lot of states are forcing more bike paths.....adding cost onto each road project.

12.  Make a rule that more hospitals in the Saarland be public hospitals.

- Don't know how you'd rig this up to occur.

13.  Continue offering religious classes in schools.

14.  Continue a road project between Merzig and Nonnweiler.

15. Political parties must offer men AND women on their lists for public offices.

Trend, a lot of peer pressure on parties to have more women in offices.  I would say this....in some cases....they've dug up women with zero knowledge on political topics (the dumb-blonde routine) and just ran them for a party 'win'.  

16.  An electrical power 'rule' would be created.....that if you didn't pay for your power within a reasonable period, it would be turned off.

I suspect there was for decades a rule like this existed and in the past decade.....it probably got dumped.

17.  Mandate all-day classes in Saarland schools.....not the normal 8 AM to 1:30 PM times.

Trend going on in Germany, that teachers aren't that happy about.

18.  Saarbrucken Airport to stay open.

It's a small airport, and in past years....there were maybe four flights over an entire day....all going up to Frankfurt.  Trend thing in Germany....if you aren't really pulling in business....why continue to operate a local airport?

19.  With a court-order, Saar police would have access to all encrypted emails.

Openly discussed and a lot of privacy folks are against this.  Some believe it can be totally enforced....I doubt that.

20.  More special needs schools need to be built.

21. Any state-paid museum in the Saarland....should be free-entry.

22. In the Saarland, no new permits to be issued for brothels.

That's an odd factor about the state.  They seem to have more than average number of brothels and it's suggested that a fair number of French guys come across the border to utilize their services.  Locals are fed up with new brothels getting easy approval to open.   

23.  Some forest areas in the Saar region would be designed as zero-management and left to be natural forests.

24. Saar cities would have a limit on services (the normal stuff like water, electricity, etc).  

25.  Teachers starting out, would all get the same scale of pay (wouldn't matter if they were grammar, chemistry, or math).

Trend, the math/science crowd expect higher starting pay.  It'd be harder to recruit for their positions if this were a state policy.

26.  Allow the Ostertalbahn railway to operate.

27.  Put more state effort into recruiting manpower from outside of Germany.

28.  Allow state agency to permit more water flow into closed mines.  

29. Establish a women's quota for positions....in state agencies.

30.  Allow the state to help support a massive battery commercial operation in the state.

31. Mandate that the state deport all failed asylum seekers.

Some states are marginally deporting failed asylum folks.  If you asked regionally, probably over half want a failed applicant to be sent back to his homeland. 

32.  Mandate a fair sum of public transportation money to be used only for rural locations.  

Blunt statement....the Saarland is a heavily rural area, and there's just limited bus support in a fair sum of villages.

33. All demonstrations should be broke up, if in violation of Covid regulations.

Delicate topic.  In this state, there might be half the population who aren't fully supportive of strict regulations.  Police hate being the ones to enforce this.

34. If you have a relative who is bad-off (health-wise) and you provide care....the state should pay you a subsidy.  (note, no one says the precise amount on this)

35. If building a new residence, solar panels would be mandated.

Lot of disagreement here.  The term is never qualified....you might be talking about two lousy panels (providing marginal power) or twenty panels (sufficient).  All of these have age limits, meaning after about 15 years, their production of power is marginal.  Lot of people would allow them to just go non-op and never replace them....to get around the rule. Just to have a bare minimum under this rule?  You'd be talking about 5,000 Euro minimum, and for a normal house with full solar....probably near 20,000 Euro to add onto the cost of the new house.  

36.  Mandate Saar colleges with commercial companies.

Lot of heartburn with professors over this....some don't want any commercial relationship.

37. State should provide more 'gift-money' to operations that want to remember the negatives of Nazis.

Some would say it's money well spent.  Others would argue that it's time to move on.

38. Bring on 5G comms ASAP.

Maybe, but using fed/state money to make this happen?  

So, as you can see....there are unique features of this regional/state election....which typically don't come up in other states.  Normally, the CDU would be the big winner in the state election (folks are generally conservative there).  Right now, the SPD (left-of-center) is bumping the CDU on polls.   

I like the region for it's rural scenery and local food.   

If You Wanted to Get The Attention Of All Russians Except Putin?

 1.  Assemble a team in each country accepting refugees from the Ukraine (figure 10 to 12 million total across Europe), and keep a data listing of every Euro spent.  Let the Russians know there's a running tally.....where one day, they will have to pay the EU/NATO a tax on refugee cost.  Maybe it takes five years.....maybe ten....maybe twenty, but somewhere down the line....a vast amount of Russian wealth be paid in some fashion.

2.  Assemble a second team to assess deaths/wounds of every single Ukrainian.  Determine the cost factor, and keep a data listing of every person.  Let the Russians know there's a running tally....where they have to pay a tax/fee for each person.  This will come out of tax revenue that Russia generates.

3.  Assemble a third team to assess all damages done to bridges, airports, buildings, etc....and keep a data list of each situation.  Let the Russians know there's a running tally....where they have to pay a tax/fee for each person.  This will come out of tax revenue that Russia generates.

4.  Assemble a fourth team to determine all Ukrainian military hardware destroyed in this brief war.....keeping a data list of tech situation.  Let the Russians know there's a running tally....where they have to pay a tax/fee for each person.  This will come out of tax revenue that Russia generates.

Publish the listing for Russian people to review and know that something called a 'Putin-tax' affects them.  He may be dead and passed on for a decade or two....but to get back into the good graces of anyone.....that Putin-tax will have to be paid in full.  Let the Oligarchs know this money will come from them as well....for the Putin-tax.  

What Happens When Russia Completes the 'Mission'?

 Generally, if you follow various military theorists.....they believe that the 150k-odd Russian front-line troops will be given departure orders when a 100k man Russian national guard force is brought in.  

Now, you can make the assumption that Russian national guard and American national guard are about in the same level of hardware maintenance.  This original crew of 100k?  I might make the assessment that they are on orders for a year, and will be replaced by another crew in twelve months (or less).

I would also make the assessment that just like in Afghanistan....this Russian crew will meet up with hostile locals and it won't be unusual for 100 Russian guardsmen to die, mysteriously disappear, or just walk off to some border each week.

Anyone in the Kremlin who think the remaining Ukrainian folks will just accept this....is joking themselves.  It's an exact repeat of Afghanistan.

How many Ukrainian folks will escape off to Europe?  Total population of Ukraine is 41.6-million, with 8.3-million being ethnic Russians.  Just making a ballpark guess, I'd say that twelve to fifteen million will make their way to the border and assemble for refugee status throughout Europe....waiting.

So you need to ask yourself five key questions.

1.  Can Ukraine factories and industry run/operate in this environment....with only 60-percent of people staying around?  I'd laugh over this and say the vast amount of business and infrastructure stuff (water, power, subways, etc)....won't function.  Nor can the Russians envision any fix for this.

2.  Where will the 150k troops then go....return home?  A number of military strategists think they will depart for Belarus, and be a 'pain' for the Baltic region....triggering a massive NATO build-up and the next confrontation (probably by May).

3.  Can the puppet-folks expect anyone to take them serious in the Ukraine?  No, and each week will be a test of their naïve nature and 3rd-grade charm.

4.  Can the Ukraine business/commerce side produce anything in the middle of this mess?  I'd say that most everything related to industry and agriculture will slip to 20-to-40 percent of what they were doing before.

5.  How long will missing young men (Russian soldiers) be asked about from the families before the government has to admit that they died in the war, or just disappeared?  For a number of folks....it'll be the moment where you realize how crapped up the government is in Russia, and you'd be better off....asking for asylum somewhere else in the world....at age 18.  

Should Putin Worry About Anonymous?

 For reference, Anonymous is this international hacker group....who shares their thoughts on hacking, and gets pure enjoyment out of hacking into networks.

This morning....their main 'front-group' said that they were going to mount an attack on Russia.

So, here's the deal.  There's just a lot of individuals in Russia who run various networks....from water to electrical power....to the subway system in Moscow....to controlling the Moscow 'Wall-Street' machine.  And you can figure at least 10-percent of them are disagreeable with the Putin strategy.....so they might go and lead Anonymous to those weak points....letting them do the damage necessary.

Stopping them?  Maybe if you just had one single incident, but I would imagine today (Friday) alone....there's bound to be over 200 incidents, and by Monday....there might be a thousand problems that the Russians are having to mess with.

A train wreck?  A power shutdown in some region?  A server handling bank transactions suddenly deleting it's entire file system?  A airport control system suddenly turning itself off?  

It might take fifty of these events to occur, but they would eventually reach Putin and suggest that he can't fight these idiots in Anonymous and hope to win.

Cutting off access to Russia?  Maybe.....but it would not surprise me if you had various Anonymous individuals within the border and who could flip a switch to connect outside chaos back into the country.

A bigger weapon than NATO?  There's hardly anything in the world that isn't connected to the internet, and it merely takes a marginal coder a few minutes to write some added code into the Moscow subway system.....to delay various trains by sixty seconds....to create a dangerous situation to brew.  

The Reality of Bringing The USSR Back?

 Several 'Doctor Dooms' came out yesterday in Germany and addressed one particular topic....re-creation of the old USSR.  

You could divide this topic up into forty different angles, and on virtually every single one of them....it makes no sense.

The key deal of selling the USSR 'gimmick' is that all 'roads' and all decisions lead back to some team in Moscow making a decision for you.  It's like the Ottawa gimmick, the Washington DC gimmick, the Brussels gimmick and the Beijing gimmick.  You just don't find that many people who want centralized decisions made by people with lousy perceptions, poor judgement, and crazy agendas.

If you walked around and just asked plain working-class Russians....I doubt that you'd find more than 10-percent of population who longs for the old days of the USSR.  So this vacuum exists....with a number of insiders to Putin....continually talking up this idea.

Find any Germans who long for the old USSR days?  Even in former East Germany (old DDR)....most remember how stores only had bananas around Christmas time, and they were considered a 'prized possession' if you could get a couple.  Music choices?  You got what the government guy would sign off on, and allow.  Movies?  You produced what was agreeable social commentary.  Cars?  They produced the cheapest and most economical vehicle possible.

I'll just say it this way....it's a pretty dark mental state to think that bringing the old USSR back solves any problems.  You end up with a thousand idiots in Moscow who serve some leadership function and 'gift' society in whatever manner they believe in.  

Denazification?

 Up until yesterday, I had never heard the expression 'denazification'.

Meaning?  Someone in the Pentagon....around 1943 and in the stages of planning Germany after the war concluded....coined this expression.  In German, it's Entnazifizierung.

It's basically this idea that German/Austrian cultures need to dissolve away into a non-Nazi existence.  This also included the politics, the legal system, the news media, and the economy.

In simple terms, you were pure of anything Nazi-like....after the cleansing.

How this effort went with the French, Americans and British following WW II?   Well...most people will say that for about six years....following the war....it went on for the most part.  If you asked the non-Germans....by mid-1950s....denazification was pretty much standard policy around Germans, and they were left in charge of their own denazification program from that point on.

So Putin brings up that part of his overall strategy is to denazify the Ukraine?  Well, yeah.....he did bring that up yesterday.

If you brought this concept back up within the Pentagon or in intellectual circles of London/Paris?  People would mostly laugh at you, and suggest you are living in some 1950s glass-bubble...inviting trouble.

Putin's logic?  He's in some belief that WW II ended yesterday, and there's some Nazi-lifestyle still existing (particularly in the Ukraine).  This leading back to an inner-circle who hype the Nazi-chatter and how you can protect the glorious homeland?  More or less.

Trying to explain this....in some logical manner?  The first thing people would ask....how would you recognize Nazi-lifestyles, or Nazi-social stuff in 2022?  Some might go and ask if destalinization or deleninization, or even deputinization needs to occur.  

Confusing?  To the ninth degree.  

The War: 25 Feb 2022

 1. How much coverage was on German public TV yesterday (Thursday)?

Between ZDF/ARD....probably up to ten hours of material.  Various 'Doctor Doom' people came out and did their talk. 

For Germans over eighty....there's a lot of remembrance of WW II, and the year after that.  On the worry-scale, they are maxing out at a '10'.  It was the first day since early 2020....that virtually nothing was said about Covid.  

2.  Kiev likely falling today (Friday)?

If you follow German news.....it will be under Russian control shortly.

3.  Putin's mental  side?

Three angles you might want to consider.  He's likely got a huge 1984 map of the Soviet Union on his office wall, and admires the 'buffer zones' on the outer ring.  

He surrounds himself with people who are 40 to 60 years old, pro-Soviet-Union, and all chatty about the 'old days'.....but never remembering how everyone felt economically screwed.  

Finally, he probably watches a lot of movies where the Russian military is portrayed as the bad guy, and he feels disrespected by the West.  He wants to regain this respect, by kicking the EU's ass.

4.  Ukraine banning men from ages 18 to 60 from leaving the country?

That story is reported by Focus.  You probably had your one and only chance before 9 PM yesterday to get out.

5.  Chancellor Scholz short speech yesterday (Thursday)?

Blunt, direct, and to the point.  In his mind....this is 'Putin's War' and he cannot win.

6.  'Ostpolitik' dead?

Around 1972, Ostpolitik as a term started to get used.  It meant you overlooked Communist dictatorships....did business with them, and this commerce path would make them less of a dictatorship.  West Germans bought this concept and went full-turbo.

In the past day, I'd say at least five 'Doctor Dooms' appeared on German public and commercial TV, and uttered Ostpolitik....saying that it's mostly proven wrong now.

The funny thing, around Germany....there must be over a thousand books written since 1972....which chat over the wonderful nature of Ostpolitik.  

7.  Indiscriminate bombing going on?

Well....if you view the video of day one....I'd say dozens of public non-targetable structures were hit (if I used the US method of targeting).

8. Ukraine mobilizing hackers?

Well....N-TV reported this and I'm shaking my head about where this will go.  You could end up with Russian nuke plants shutting themselves down and going into some chaos-mode.  

Wouldn't shock me if Facebook/Twitter had outages over the next two weeks....with Russian hackers going after the West.

9.  Lot of nuclear chatter going on?

Weird stuff....Putin made a blunt statement that some nations ought to keep their nose out of Russian business, or face Russian nuclear missiles (directed at France and Germany).  Yesterday, Macron made a blunt statement back to Putin.....maybe he ought to remember that France/UK have nuclear missiles as well.

10.  More US troops to Germany?

N-TV says an announcement of 7,000 US troops was made by the Pentagon.  The only comment was that they'd land in Germany.

11.  'Iron Curtain' got uttered again?

Sigmar Gabriel, former party boss of the SPD, uttered a comment last night on a chat forum....saying that the 'Iron Curtain' is going back up.  If you are under the age of thirty in Germany.....you probably have no idea what the hell that means.

12.  London saying the Oligarchs have to leave?

Via only social media....this comment started up and has trended a good bit.  Johnson hasn't said much, but I would imagine by Monday....some type of government order will occur, and whoever remains in London in this status....might have to leave.  Going back to Russia?  I seriously doubt it.  

13.  Chernobyl captured?

People may not grasp that....but from the entire complex....some of the nuke plants are still operational and providing power to the Ukraine.  Technicians being held by the Russians?  That rumor started up.  

What Came Out Of The NATO Meeting Today

 Defensive measures were written up, and the 30-member agreed to meet tomorrow (Friday) to sign the document.

Next?

A  NATO reaction force (40,000) would be activated and given orders....to what seems to be a move toward Poland, Baltic region, Czech, etc.

German Bundeswehr has ordered Eurofighters to Romania.

'New reality' is the term being thrown around.  

Curiously, in the last hour....Russia came up and said any anti-war demonstrations in Russia....will treat the participants as 'criminals'.

More War Stuff

 I'd strongly endorse a read of Albert Stahel's interview via Focus today, which covered the Ukraine-Russia war.

His predicted points?  Ukraine will be entirely taken (puppet-type government installed).  The next challenged states?  Baltic states, Poland, and Czech.

On the Baltic region, it is correct to say that a fair amount of the population of the region.....are ethnic-Russian.  NATO's obligation?  Well....they don't do civil war stuff.  So it'll be curious if the pro-Russian factions in the Baltic region gather to start a civil conflict....inviting the Russians to come there.  

How Did The Soviet Union Dissolve?

 For thirty years....no one much talked about this or made this into simple story.

Around 1985, when Gorbachev was called upon to be the next Premier....the chief problem existing was economic stagnation.  Some people would argue that the stagnation had been around for three decades....but was actually in a bigger spiral in the mid-80s.

So by 1990, the Union was finding itself no longer operational as one nation state.

Estonia laid down the first card....1988, just saying it was better off without any connection to the USSR.

In the spring of 1990....Lithuania followed.

The 1991 failed coup, ramped up the remaining elements, and the USSR was dissolved.  What existed then was a bunch of independent countries.  

Some had better economic systems, because they could manage things within their state.  Some had marginally better economic systems because of incompetence within the state apparatus.  

Putin today?  He's mostly in the belief that Moscow can be the 'answer'....that 'limited democracy' exist (enough to keep you going), and that some type of rivalry between Russia and the EU exists.  

To be honest....the EU helps and hinders trade, and if you asked most working-class people....for every good thing the EU does....they do a crappy thing at the same time.  Russians kinda hint that same factor over Moscow/Putin.

If you tour around Estonia today....you'd say it's mostly like Finland, and existing as a fairly relaxed capitalistic state....without a lot of meddling/rule making.

Most Ukrainians wanted that same deal.  If you asked which mattered most....economic freedom probably ranked higher than some idiot Moscow 'boss' trying to run your business/life.

If you asked people around old USSR, how they'd feel about re-assembling the USSR....I would imagine 90-percent would say that's the last thing they'd like to bring back.  

So as you sip your beer tonight, listening to the various 'Doctor Dooms' discuss the invasion....remember that the dissolving of the Soviet Union came because of economic incompetence.  Putin riding into 'town' on a white stallion and talking about his Moscow stuff (the big lecture) will save people.....probably won't sell that well. 

Collapse of Russian Stock Market?

 Well....yeah, here at 10:25 AM, Thursday.....the Russian IMOEX situation is dire.

Since opening, they've fallen around 38-percent.

The futures market for the Ruble?  Down by 5-percent (actually sitting at .0116 cents).

The Russia traded index?  Down by 42-percent.

The Russian Sberbank?  Down by 13-percent.

GAZPROM stock?  Down by 12.6-percent.

If I were a Oligarch guy....I'd be a bit disgusted how this occurred.

The War: 24 Feb 2022

 1.  'Doctor Doom' chatter on N-TV?

I sat and watched a piece this morning, where a 'Doctor Doom' guy was interviewed and said it took months of planning to mount this Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

Frankly....NO.  There's probably been a plan on the shelf for twenty years in Russia, and just in the past sixty to ninety days....it was dusted off and updated.  I would speculate that the logistics part of this invasion is now the most critical segment.  Every spare part for tanks/helicopters/aircraft is probably at the forward point, and at best....they can only mount a 30-to-45 day operation.

2.  Bosporus Straits to close?

If you gaze at the map where Turkey is divided (Istanbul on one side, and the rest of Turkey on the other)....there is the Straits.  There is an agreement (since 1936) that says Turkey owns the Straits and can deny any vessel.  So the Ukraine has asked Turkey to deny Russian military vessels. 

Turkey's reaction?  Reviewing things.  If they denied the Russians.....this would get pretty serious and invite more problems.  My guess is that they won't do anything, or even discuss the matter in public.

3.  Russians denied access to European banking/investment markets?

The EU pushed that button yesterday.  The Oligarchs have to be sitting there....fuming over this issue.  If it were just for a month....no one would say much.  If this were to continue for more than three or four months....I would imagine there would be serious economic fallout.

4.  Around 7 AM, Ukraine reported 5 Russian planes and 1 helicopter shot down?

Well....the Ukraine military says this.  I won't vouch for any of this.  If it were true....it probably would trigger some frustrations for the Russians.

5.  Slight before 7 AM, Latvia asked for a NATO special meeting to trigger Article 4 (coming to the aid of a member of NATO)?

This is mostly about the location of the Baltic states (being next to Belarus/Russia) and some fear that they will be 'next'.

My humble guess is that the meeting will occur by noon.  No one has suggested more equipment or troops on the NW front of Belarus (yet).  I would anticipate some military basing of equipment to occur at Kaliningrad, and it means transiting through a NATO state.  I doubt if military hardware/personnel will be allowed to transit, and this would set off another problem.

6.  The odds of a 'junta' being put in charge of the Ukraine?

I'd give it pretty hefty odds, and zero acceptance by Europe.  Just suggesting this and thinking the Europeans would just 'forget' about the problem?  It won't go that way.  

Even last night, with the discussion of the 'puppet-regime'.....people just sat there and were laughing.  I'm kinda amazed at how Germans discuss 'puppets' and make comical comments over the chatter.  

What Happens When The 12-Euro Per Hour Minimum Wage Occurs?

 Currently, for the record here in 2022.....a McDonalds menu meal runs around 9.90 Euro (Heidelberg rate), if you use the Numbeo site.  That's $11.13 for you US folks (tax included).  

I generally expect the meal to escalate by mid-summer when the minimum wage deal hits, and the same meal will be up around 10.80 Euro.

Across the board....from pubs to service operations....a 10-percent surge in prices is more than likely. 

There's no doubt that the minimum wage had to slide up, but the cost level for a number of things will escalate along with it.  

In fact, I'll even make this prediction by the end of 2022....a lot of political chatter will start up over the idea of maximum wage, and that some people will start to discuss a limit on how much you can make (out of the term 'fairness').

Q-and-A: Germany: 24 Feb 2022

 1.  German government dropping a bunch of 'gifts' to the public?

Well, here's the deal...the coalition met and agreed to these gifts: the EEG surcharge on electrical bills is dissolved until July, the unemployed/welfare class folks will get a 100 Euro one-time 'gift', the home-office tax credit is set at 600 Euro, a heating subsidy of around 135 Euro for singles and 175 Euro for couples will be 'gifted' out, and 20 Euro per kid will be issued out to welfare families from July on. 

Fair sum of money....at least for the working class/welfare class.  Will it cover all heat costs?  No, and it wasn't meant to be the absolute answer to things.

2.  Can you conduct 9,500 quickie tests consecutively at a test-center, and ALL are negative?

Well, I noticed this story over at Focus, and I'll try to describe the story.  Up in the NRW region of Germany....on one particular day of testing with 24 different centers....there was not a single positive from the entire group.  Now, most people would say that shows the virus is really going away.

However, news people focused on this one site site in Koln.....which did 9,533 tests and not a single one was positive.  

An accusation of false testing?  Yeah, but maybe with the Omicron deal....the tests are crap.  You just can't be sure.

3.  This separatist region in east Ukraine had a news conference to show their leadership qualities, and it went badly?

I noticed the video of this off German public TV, and at some point....this guy (not elected, just assumed the role of 'chief-dog'....got this question....if he could prove he's not a puppet of Putin.  That set the guy up to talk like some 12-year old kid who got his stash of adult magazines found by grandma.  

It's all serious business, but you can't help but admire the weird characters being shaped for TV presentation.

4.  'Long' Covid being caused by damage to the Vagus nerve?

I sat and watched a German health report last night, and this topic came up.....from Spanish research folks.  First, I had to admit I knew nothing about the Vagus nerve.  FYI...this one single nerve runs all your internal organ operations (heart/respiratory rate, digestion,  a couple reflex things (relating back to coughing and swallowing).  

Whether something can be done to nerve damage.....to repair it....is a totally different question.

More War Chatter/BS

 Welt/N-24 put out an odd piece talking about the Putin strategy and that it might not just include the far west part of the Ukraine.

Other Russian annexation?  Well....with the map shown, it included Serbia, Montenegro, and Kosovo.

It's a pretty crazy strategy.  You'd have to arrive by naval force (Marines) and land on the coast of Montenegro.  

Pro-Russia Serbs?  Well....yeah....a pretty large group, and they might be open to this idea.  I can't say the same for Kosovo or Montenegro.  

Frankly, on a scale of one to ten.....I'd give this a '2' for being realistic, but if you happened to see some naval force with 10k Russian Marines in the mix....moving toward the Med, then I'd start to believe the fantasy scenario more.

(Note: in the entire Russian Marine force, there's only 12,000)

At this point, it would freak out Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Italy.

On the funny side, it's amazing what the Russian-war 'Doctor Dooms' have suggested in the past 48 hours, on German TV.   

LNG Chatter

 In the past day, I've been looking at the German natural gas 'mess'.

Focus did an update and talked at length about what may occur.

That LNG port chatter (Trump had urged them to go this route)?  Funding has flowed and some plan is in the works.....in the Brunsbuttel area (on the River Elbe in Schleswig-Holstein).  It's about a 30 minute drive NW of Hamburg.  

The port would allow the US to bring LNG tankers in.  Permit to build?  Well....it won't be in 2022 (they seem to talk about 2023).  Operational?  2026 is suggested at the earliest.  

Won't this project be challenged by environmentalists?  If you wanted real negative words to hang onto the party for state elections coming up.....a challenge would be a major negative.  

Royally screwed?  They brought this alternate port idea. 

You see, there is a LNG port in the UK, and in the Netherlands.  Via pipelines....that could flow into Germany.  Short-term, this would work but you'd be discussing some shift in cost for natural gas (50-percent increase wouldn't shock me).

As you look at these options....long-term, it just looks awful crappy for the GAZPROM guys and the Nord Stream II project. 

Getting good relations going with the Brits?  Well....all that BREXIT stuff has left some hurt feelings on both sides.

Toss in inflation, US LNG dealings, etc.....having natural gas prices go drastically up in 2023 is more than likely. 

'Last Generation' Kids Block Airport Entries Today

 I sat and watched N-TV coverage today.

Basically, at the Berlin, Frankfurt and Munich Airports....the 'kids' blocked access leading into the Airports.

Yes, glue was used as part of the deal.

Cops diverting traffic?  For the most part, until they could 'cut' the kids loose from the glue.

Cops/authorities just apprehending.....then releasing them for a court-date later?  More or less.  Eventually, some judge will stand there....grin, and then refer some group of six off for a couple of days of a mental exam (my theory). 

Once you have one doctor noting they are under the influence of a cult and not mentally responsible for their actions.....the judge can send them off for a month or two of in-house/compound treatment.  At that point, 'fear' will sharpen up with the remaining kids....that they might be proclaimed 'as under some cult'.  

Money Lady Story

 I'll reference this to a regional HR (Hessen) network news piece.

For about 20 years, regional suburb of Frankfurt....Offenbach....had their own emergency services unit, and some accounting function within it.  Tons of money fed in, and then paid for equipment/services.

So this gal....appears to be in the past ten years....figured out a way to push out money on a routine basis, to herself.  

Cops got called, and have investigated.  

Their figure?  1.1-million Euro (roughly 1.3 million dollars)...siphoned off.

Getting the sum back?  Unknown, and it looks like they never did any audit activity to catch problems like this. 

Worry, Fear and 'Doctor Dooms' In The Mix

 Zafer Senocak wrote an opinion piece for WELT today....entitled "Europe Was Never As Unprotected After 1945 As It Is Today".  If you can find WELT at the news stand, or catch the basic story on N24 TV news....it's worth a review.

I tend to agree, and it's remarkable to go and see how Eastern and Western Europe survived through forty-five years, then came out after the Wall dissolved (1990s)....to where they are all commercially and economically tied into one 'machine'....with the Russians even attached to the survivability of Europe (via natural gas).

The Russian Oligarchs that exist today?  Every single one of them has a direct line which leads to the natural gas, and tons of profit over the decades....from Western Europe.  Their yachts parked in Cyprus, Greece, and Croatia?  All from a profitable situation.  

All of this in jeopardy?  One can argue that if this Russia-Ukraine thing isn't cleared up.....there's going to be a downward trend in Russia, with unhappy people angry over inflation.

But lets gaze back at the Germans.  Every step of the way in the 1970s.....as the natural gas pipeline was being built.....individuals warned the West German government that this was going to lead to an eventual mess.  

Just three years ago....President Trump repeated these warnings, and was generally disregarded....he just didn't understand the 'big' picture.  Well.....yeah, he grasped precisely what the scenario unfolding now was about.

In the past forty-hours, I'd say the German public news cycle (via ARD/ZDF) has really pumped up this Ukraine invasion business.  

This morning, my German wife finally asked....just where will this lead to, and if there is a 'big' threat.  I responded 'no'.....Ukraine just needs to accept that Europe/NATO screwed them, and that carving up countries is perfectly OK.  I don't think she appreciated my sarcasm.

Then she came back sarcastically and asked if old DDR/East Germany might be annexed in this manner (being slightly hopeful but sarcastic as well).

The problem here....as bad as Covid was....Putin has finally replaced it as a 'threat', and now we have 'Professor Dooms' (intellectual Russia/military experts) who appear and give doom scenario number one, or doom scenario number two.  

I noticed that the UFEA soccer championship business is now regarded in jeopardy because next month Poland is supposed to play Russia....in Moscow, and various soccer 'Doctor Dooms' are discussing how this may happen or may not happen.

Any hope?  Well....maybe we can get some double-triple advancement on Omicron, and bring the 'Doctor Dooms' back into prospective.  

Why Are Germany's Electrical Rates So High?

 One could write a 500-page book on this business....but I'll try to summarize these in 40 lines:

1. Fukushima changed the whole nuke energy landscape.  Up until that point, Germany was walking a very difficult path with the disposal of nuke material, and the worry about 'problems'.  After Fukushima, nuke energy's future in Germany was doomed.  You couldn't build a business plan around them, and the close schedule is set now (all close by the end of 2022).

2.  The 'filter' business.  Imagine yourself a kid with one great chocolate shop in the village.  Oma gives you 2-Euro daily for your 'dose' of chocolate.

One day, you decide that fine chocolate is better than average chocolate, and the cost is 2.10.  The ten cents is from your pocket, on top of what Oma gave you.

A month, a chocolate 'sin' tax is added to the particular Chocolate you desire (10-percent), making your cost now 2.31 Euro.  The .31 cents is from your pocket.

Several months pass, and there's some peer pressure on you to only buy 'pure/clean' chocolate, from Peru....picked by virgin ladies, and paid a fair wage.  Your new cost is 2.70, with the tax at 27 cents....meaning your Chocolate cost is up around 2.97.....meaning from your pocket, you pay .97 cents with Oma's two Euro. 

Electricity works the same way.....you are convinced that taxes should be X, and that 'pure/clean' power....must be Y.  

Germany's average cost per KwH?  32 cents.

Croatia's average cost per KwH?  13 cents.

Latvia?  14 cents.  

3.  The C02 tax plays a role.  Per 2021, tax stands now at 69 Euro per ton (of Carbon).  

4.  Fewer Germans on the grid, or relying upon only the grid.  If you drive around.....you tend to notice it's popular now (as of 2018, one-million homes in Germany have some form of solar).

While not the entire answer....out of those one-million homes, you have to figure that most use a marginal amount of power (mostly in the cloudy periods) from the grid, and rely mostly upon their own panels.

5.  Up until the end of 2021, there was a renewable energy tax which existed.  Per KwH, it was set at 6.5 Euro cents.  Today, it's at 3.72 Euro cents per KwH.  

As you might guess....the higher than cost go up....the more inflated that taxes are, and end up in the government's pocket as a sort of 'sin' of energy consumption.  

Around two years ago, I challenged my wife (German in nature, and the record keeper of the house) to pull the energy consumption from 25 years ago (at the old house).  Today, I probably use 10-percent less energy....but pay almost double of what I did 25 years ago.  

LED lights?  Around 98-percent of the house is now LED.  Energy saver freezer/refrigerator?  Yes.  Use of the dryer only five months of the year?  Yes.  Dishwaser use?  Probably five times per month.  

If you went down the entire list.....I've done everything to have less consumption than two decades prior.  

They featured a German guy (probably near 70 years old) last year on HR (my regional TV).  The tech team came in and reviewed the guy's entire house.  He'd bought a premium refrigerator back in the 1990s and was still using it in the basement.  He still had his high-cost premium freezer from 1985.....which still worked.  He had a washer/dryer that were almost twenty years old (he'd kept them repaired and functional....being fairly proud of that).  

Energy consumption for the guy?  The tech team did the numbers and said if he'd dump all of the items, and go for low-energy use items.....within a couple of years, they'd pay for themselves, and his electrical bill would drop by 50-percent.  

What Was So Big About The Donetsk Oblast District For The Russians?

 Well....on the industry side.....roughly half of the steel production capability of the Ukraine came out of this one Oblast (district).  We are talking about finished steel and cast iron.

On the agriculture side, this region was a major grain producer,  along with sugar beets, sunflower seeds, potatoes, milk and eggs.  

If you were to ask me over value.....I'd say if they could continue commerce (as is), it was a big deal.  Now instead of selling to the EU region? Well....they'd only have the Russia market.  

Money-making potential?  I just don't see the big gain.  Maybe they think there is added business to come, but I'd question this. 

Last time I checked.....the Indian, and China steel market was clobbering EU and Russia steel market.

How many of the locals in the district were ethnic Russian (instead of ethnic Ukrainians)?  Roughly 75-percent.

Lot of Muslims in the district?  Well....not that it really matters, but around one-fifth of all Ukrainian Muslims lived out of this one district.  

Q-and-A: Germany: 23 Feb 2022

 1.  Did Covid drop big-time in the news yesterday?

Kinda shocking that they barely even mentioned anything related to Covid.....the war in the Ukraine is now about fifty-percent of prime-time public TV news.

2.  Are people drawing parallels to Georgia (2008)?

Well....there was a brief five-day 'war', and a chunk of Georgia which had a fair sum of ethnic Russians....was chipped off as a new part of Russia.  Same script, in this case....there's two districts on the far eastern side of the Ukraine, and based on the maps shown by German journalists....they are Luhansk and Donetsk (referred to as Oblasts, not districts).  

The lines drawn?  About half of each Oblast, and the size of maybe  one-sixth of Alabama.  The general chatter is that population-wise in these two Oblast areas....the vast majority of locals are ethnic Russian.  

3.  So these ethnic Russians (former Ukrainians) think they are better off?

This is debatable, and in the 'fury' of the moment.....they probably believe it.

4.  Former Chancellor Schröder in trouble?

Since 2006, he's been a 'talking-head' of Gazprom (the Russian natural gas company) and a major source of embarrassment for the Germans....particularly the SPD Party.  Last week, the BND reminded the government (and public) that they did the analysis back in the 2005/2006 era, and forecasted the close connections to the Russians.

So you have two elements in play.  One element wants the SPD Party to dump (dismember) Schröder.  The other element wants the government to dump all privilege's that Schröder has as a former Chancellor.  Anyone's guess how this will go.

5.  Aren't the Oligarchs  (the Russian billionaires) peeved?

Anyone's guess here, but I suspect if you had ten of them in a bar and asked their opinion....they'd be asking just how much punishment they have to accept (lost profits, no easy access to Paris or Rome, limited banking 'world').

If this were to go on....meaning the two districts of the Ukraine consumed, and the punishment being permanent?  Long-term, it's hard to see Putin being accepted for the mess.

6.  This residential building fire up in Essen turning into a big deal?

Roughly five days ago, up in Essen....at a 50-apartment building...fire started up on some balcony.  This was a complex of several buildings, but the fire was contained to just this one building.  

Totally destroyed?  Yes.  Locals say 3 folks were taken to the hospital....but no deaths.  

So we come to a interesting topic.  It's a new building (10 years old) and they used the foam-stuff to help insulate the structure.  This was a big deal back twenty years ago for folks to add.  Well....the foam helped (with the wind) and 'fed' the fire to be a massive problem for the fire department.  

Lot of chatter going on about this, but one must remember....there are thousands of buildings built in that era with the foam.  

7.  Discussion starting up with mental health folks that there are a lot of Germans who seem to be in need of treatment for hypochondria issues?

For the record, hypochondria is when you worry day and night, that you either are sick with something, or think you are about to have something....but it's all perception.  

Some doctors in Germany are suggesting that Covid has brought on these 'customers/clients' who perceive things but don't have the actual symptoms.  

Long-term issue?  I would suggest that, but there's not much of a cure.  You'd have to ship folks off to some brain-wash 'camp' and convince them that their ailments are imaginary.  

8. If Nord Stream II was authorized to run....just how much of Germany's natural gas would have been Russian?

Well....I can  only cite this from the ARD (public TV) journalists....to which they suggest a fully operational Nord Stream II would have brought the Russian amount up to 70-percent of all natural gas in Germany.  

Kinda funny to see this now.  If I were Putin....I would have waited another year....gotten the authorization to turn it on....gotten massive cheap contracts worked up, and then spring the war on the Germans.  

9.  Minimum wage increase to 12 Euro per hour....now concreted down?

Yes, as of 1 Oct.  Influence upon the inflation business?  It keeps the inflation pot boiling.  Everything, from a burger menu at Burger King....to having your tires changed....to sipping a beer at the local pub....will go up in the 4th quarter of 2022.

10.  Retirement home nurses/support personnel getting a one-time bonus?

What the coalition government says....a 550-Euro bonus will be given out by the government shortly.  Enough to make them 'happy'?  Lets not get silly here....it's enough to smile over for about a week, then go back to reality that they are generally under-paid.  

11.  Should Germany worry about annexation from Russia as well?  

I saw a humor piece (social media wise) where some German suggested there are enough Russians in Germany.....to create a annexation here as well.

The number throughout all of Germany?  It's divided into three groups, but totals around 3.5-million who could call themselves ethnic Russian.  The groups?  There's the plain old fashioned Russians who migrated into Germany over the past fifty years, then you have the Aussiedler/Spätaussiedler/Russlanddeutsche (the ones that left 300 to 500 years ago, then returned in the past couple of decades), and then finally the Russian Jews.

If you asked me over assimilation of this ethnic Russian group into German society....they have mostly integrated.  If you walk into any big-name German grocery.....there will be a Russian row, and sixty-odd products lined up that typically would only be in Russia.  In cities like Frankfurt and Berlin, there are several Russian-only product stores.  I have to admit....there is one small shop even in the Wiesbaden area.

Lot of Russians in Berlin?  Some put the number up around 25,000.  Even in my town of Wiesbaden....I'd go and suggest at least 2,000 Russians have come in....within the past decade.  

This suggestion being a 'joke'?  I'd be about 99-percent in agreement.  But it's a amusement that Putin could suggest as a joke, and German journalists would freak out.  

The War: Natural Gas Crisis in Germany?

 Focus brought this issue today, and it's an interesting review where natural gas is.

Weather so far for the past month?  Even I would suggest that it's been unseasonably warm since the Christmas holidays, and probably in the 5-to-10 degree C range for the past four weeks (day-time temperature).

German reserves?  About 31-percent of expectations....with the average daily consumption about half-as-much as it would have been in January.

So here's the funny comment from the Focus report....climate change for 2022 has 'blessed' us a good bit, and is helping march through the missing natural gas.

Worry remaining for the next winter?  Well...yeah.  

The War Begins

 1.  Germany announced this morning, with Russian troops now in the Ukraine...that the certification process for Nord Stream II....is suspended.  Length of the suspension is unknown.

The current operating gas line from Russia into Germany (since the 1970s)?  Still functional, but for the past few weeks....a marginal amount of gas has been moving.

2.  Economics Minister Habeck (Greens) says that the gas prices in Germany will likely escalate.  How much?  Unknown.  This morning....I noted E10 gas at 1.78 Euro per liter locally.

3.  Oddly enough, Erdogan of Turkey has openly criticized the Russian move.

4.  Poland is asking for the eastern front to be 'beefed-up'.

5.  There's a UEFA soccer issue brewing.  Mid-March, Poland was supposed to play a game against Russia....in Moscow.  UEFA claims there is no issue.....I should note here....GAZPROM is a sponsor of UEFA, and this probably is drawing a lot of negativity.  Odds of the game continuing but being held in a non-Europe site?  I'd give it high odds.  

That Champagne Murder Episode

 I essayed a piece about two weeks ago....from the Weiden area of Germany (over in Bavaria)....on how eight friends ordered up a bottle of champagne that was apparently laced with ecstasy (the drug).  Result: 1 dead and 7 folks bad-off.

Well....today, N-TV got an update via the police.

What they say.....is that the whole bottle was containing ecstasy, period.....no champagne.

Bought via an internet deal?  Yeah.

Everyone in the group of eight, and the employees at the pub.....cleared, but a lot of questions now.....where the bottle came from, and where in the logistics cycle did it get 'switched'.

It would appear that this is a common practice and the ecstasy 'hub' uses this method on occasion.  

Q-and-A: Germany:22 Feb 2022

 1.  Covid masks for school kids....which was mandated....closes out on 7 March (at least in Hessen).  Starting next Tuesday, meetings which had been limited to 10 people because of Covid.....are now unlimited (at least in Hessen).  Starting on the 4th of March.....if you are non-vax/non-recovered, you can now walk into a pub/restaurant with just a negative test-slip and be served.

2.  Another hurricane system will enter Germany by tonight (Tuesday)....would make the fourth of the past seven days.  On the unusual scale....this would be rated as a '10'.  It's not unusual to have three or four in an entire year.  

3.  It's a bit shocking on the number of 'Putin-experts' who have arrived on ARD/ZDF (public TV) for the news and public forums.  The 'Covid-experts' are sadden by this change in priorities.

4.  There is an interview piece on WELT by a religious sect mental expert....Michael Utsch....where he starts to compare these hyped-up environmental kids associated with the group 'Last Generation' as being in a cult-like state of mind.

I will say this....from interview chatter and positions taken by these German teenagers....it does remind one of the various doomsday cult groups.  They generally believe in apocalypticism and millenarianism.  I'll add this as well....both the doomsday cults and 'Last Generation' kids....often predict disaster/end of days.  

Both seek to inspire people to take actions, before the 'end'.  I have no idea what kind of rehab you'd have to send kids like this....off to.  

5.  Changes coming to the public TV channel Tagesschau24?

Well....this is a public TV network, which was created in late 1990s, and designed to be a all-in-one information network (documentaries, news, public forums, etc).

Around 2012, it went through a renovation and did more live news/talk forums.  

This week, the management announced they were going to the next renovation....a full-fledged news network...although it's not going to be a 24-hour thing (like CNN).  

Do Germans even watch Tagesschau24?  Well....that's another thing.  If you went into a pub and asked 10 Germans about it....the majority would admit they've never watched a single hour of the public channel.  

Germans being that concerned with news around the clock?  Germans just don't get into this mindset like you see in the US.  They'd like a simple packaged 15 to 30 minute news piece....which has to include sports and weather.  They don't want long complicated interviews with intellectuals that seem to go nowhere but in circles.  

So after this renovation....will there be that many Germans watching this network?  Frankly, you already have N-24 and N-TV existing for 16-hour a day news cycles, but both are commercial.  I think the public TV folks are concerned that viewers are moving away from them, and they have to act.  

Cost factor?  Well....it's just curious what this will amount to and if this plays into the next TV-Media tax increase.  

(Advice: if some fast-reacting story occurs of great interest, my advice is to turn N-TV or N-24 on, and they give a pretty decent coverage)

Cheating Story

 Focus brought up some weird story on driver testing today. 

So, some fairly clever guy....figured out a way to have a mini-cam in the FFP-2 mask....as the guy wore it in the classroom for the driver's written exam.

That would relay to someone nearby, and then the answer would be transmitted to the guy.

I have yet to see the mask/camera, and kinda wonder about the size of this.  

Mask Chatter

 Magnus Claw wrote a piece for Welt this morning and he talked over Covid.  There's a lot of anticipation in March that virtually all regulations/mandates will dissolve away.  The one that probably won't?  The mask.

The quote from Claw:  

"Are we threatened with a permanent mask requirement? Every second German wants to continue wearing a mask after the end of the pandemic. Politicians are also sticking to the requirement to wear masks. An irritating parallel to the Islamic veil suggests itself."

He has a point, but even if the mask mandate went away....I'd suspect that more than 75-percent of Germans would continue to wear a mask indoors, on buses and trains, and even ten-percent of school-kids might stick to the mask.

 Me?  On buses and trains....I'd probably stick to the mask.  At stores?  It might take a week to get used to a no-mask theme, but I'd get used to it.

What's really left after the 20 March point?  No one has said for sure yet.  Some believe the mask will absolutely be around, and some suggest that testing in schools/colleges will still occur.  Immunization of all medical/rest-home personnel?  That's still mandated and won't go away. 

If you asked if all the mechanism would be ready to go up in October when Covid returns in high numbers.....to bring back lock-downs or curfews?  It's a pretty sure bet.  

Ten Things Likely To Come Out Of The Ukraine 'Invasion'

 Presently, I'm still of the mindset that no invasion will occur, and Russia will play out this 'game' to demonstrate how Macron/Biden/Scholz/Johnson are weak.  But to the suggestion of things to come?

1.  I'll predict that around 100k Ukrainian refugees (minimum) will end up invited to Germany....within 60 days of the invasion.  Some type of airlift will occur and several centers would be formed around Germany.  I'll even suggest....oddly enough, the AfD Party won't stage opposition to these refugees (my belief).  

2.  Inflation for all of Europe (particularly Germany) will escalate.  Present rate at the end of January was 4.9-percent.  I would suggest another two-percent would quickly occur, and probably another extra two-percent by the close of the year in Germany.  

3.  Fear of nuclear missiles will hype-up and be openly discussed nightly, with missile defense likely to be explained in detail to naïve Germans. 

4.  The natural gas shortfall in Germany will occur, but it'll be limited to industry....not homes.

5.  The funding for a LNG port in the Hamburg region will simply not occur (because of Green Party opposition).  

6.  Chancellor Scholz will be found to hold limited capabilities for this type of drama.

7.  The BND (the Secret Service of Germany) will proclaim x-number of Russians within Germany are a potential threat.  A news source will eventually discover that among the Russian population in Germany....99-percent are not supportive of Putin or the invasion.

8.  Poland and the Baltic region will now become a forward point for NATO deployments....hyping up additional scenarios for the remainder of 2022.

9.  Some Russian Oligarchs will find that they no longer have access to travel in Germany, and the question of property ownership will come up at some point. 

10.  An immigration door will open in Germany for Ukrainians....very similar to the Syrian immigration status.  It wouldn't shock me if over the next two or three years.....maybe a million Ukrainians assemble in Germany (to stay).