1. 'Doctor Doom' chatter on N-TV?
I sat and watched a piece this morning, where a 'Doctor Doom' guy was interviewed and said it took months of planning to mount this Russian invasion of the Ukraine.
Frankly....NO. There's probably been a plan on the shelf for twenty years in Russia, and just in the past sixty to ninety days....it was dusted off and updated. I would speculate that the logistics part of this invasion is now the most critical segment. Every spare part for tanks/helicopters/aircraft is probably at the forward point, and at best....they can only mount a 30-to-45 day operation.
2. Bosporus Straits to close?
If you gaze at the map where Turkey is divided (Istanbul on one side, and the rest of Turkey on the other)....there is the Straits. There is an agreement (since 1936) that says Turkey owns the Straits and can deny any vessel. So the Ukraine has asked Turkey to deny Russian military vessels.
Turkey's reaction? Reviewing things. If they denied the Russians.....this would get pretty serious and invite more problems. My guess is that they won't do anything, or even discuss the matter in public.
3. Russians denied access to European banking/investment markets?
The EU pushed that button yesterday. The Oligarchs have to be sitting there....fuming over this issue. If it were just for a month....no one would say much. If this were to continue for more than three or four months....I would imagine there would be serious economic fallout.
4. Around 7 AM, Ukraine reported 5 Russian planes and 1 helicopter shot down?
Well....the Ukraine military says this. I won't vouch for any of this. If it were true....it probably would trigger some frustrations for the Russians.
5. Slight before 7 AM, Latvia asked for a NATO special meeting to trigger Article 4 (coming to the aid of a member of NATO)?
This is mostly about the location of the Baltic states (being next to Belarus/Russia) and some fear that they will be 'next'.
My humble guess is that the meeting will occur by noon. No one has suggested more equipment or troops on the NW front of Belarus (yet). I would anticipate some military basing of equipment to occur at Kaliningrad, and it means transiting through a NATO state. I doubt if military hardware/personnel will be allowed to transit, and this would set off another problem.
6. The odds of a 'junta' being put in charge of the Ukraine?
I'd give it pretty hefty odds, and zero acceptance by Europe. Just suggesting this and thinking the Europeans would just 'forget' about the problem? It won't go that way.
Even last night, with the discussion of the 'puppet-regime'.....people just sat there and were laughing. I'm kinda amazed at how Germans discuss 'puppets' and make comical comments over the chatter.
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