Well....if you looked around, the idea of Russia invading the Ukraine on Wednesday (I admit its rare that any invasion is advertised ahead of time and this White House suggestion of knowledge over this is odd) is just not being taken as a BIG deal in Germany. Covid still runs as a major news topic.
German involvement in this NATO situation? If you look around, there's just not much being noticed.
From the Foreign Ministry? Baerbock (Foreign Minister)? She's been on the road constantly for the past two weeks, but has little to show for it.
The natural gas situation? Back around Christmas, the Germans kinda admitted that there was no reserve supply of natural gas, and the original pipeline (for decades in operation) was marginally moving natural gas from Russia to Germany. The Nord Stream II pipe? Fully operational and ready to go.....currently in the off-position. There were some talks with Norway about increased pumping....no one says much over that.
If you were asking if a natural gas crisis will occur after the invasion starts? I'd say something will occur, but Russia only provides around 35-to-37 percent of what Germany uses. Just based on comments (lacking facts), I'd say that Norway could make up half of the Russia gas, if required. (note: if some German tells you that the US gets natural gas from Russia....you can correct them, it's zero-percent....but last week, a major German business journal tried to suggest that the US buys natural gas from Putin.)
Might there be a serious amount of refugees from the Ukraine? If this were an isolated invasion and just limited to the SE section of the country....it wouldn't be a big deal. If they intend to take all of the eastern half of the country.....I could see five or six million refugees coming to western Europe.....in a matter of a month after the invasion start up.
Putin's gain? I think it's more of a demonstration to NATO and the big countries of the EU....that they aren't capable of handling something like this, and dynamic leadership from the US is simply missing.
But to the idea that Germans care?
For anyone who served in the US military in the 1970s/1980s....this is all the classic scenario that was always presented for the US military to exist in Europe. It might have been the invasion into Yugoslavia, or the 'drive' into central Germany (the 'gap'), but the idea was always some mythical trigger would occur, and in a matter of days....an invasion would become likely. Germans over the age of sixty....likely remember the chatter of the 1980s. If you are a German and under age forty....you have no introduction of the past history.
I noticed this afternoon....an interview in Sweden....between a Swede newspaper (Aftonbladet)....and the Russian ambassador (Viktor Tatarintsev).....the quote was: "Excuse the language, but we don't give a fuck about the sanctions of the West." As far as they are concerned....they have China as a trade partner, that's all that matters.
The bigger worry? If the Wednesday invasion is true.....it'll likely be complete within four weeks, and some lockdown starts up in the region. At that point, the Baltic countries, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria will start to worry about stability. NATO troops forced to forward-deploy?
A bigger mess to come? You could easily see some group gathered up around the Baltic states (Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania), and NATO suddenly has to position 50,000 troops to send a message.
The necessity to take a 20 km corridor in Lithuania....from Kaliningrad (Russian state) to Belarus? I'd put it on my second half of 2022 calendar as possible. Poland won't accept that type of military action, and the thing just makes a bigger mess out of Russia's strategy.
My final word? I think from Wednesday on.....if the invasion occurs, Covid will drop to a barely mentioned topic, and the 'war' will be consuming a lot of politics for the remainder of 2022.
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