Generally, if you follow various military theorists.....they believe that the 150k-odd Russian front-line troops will be given departure orders when a 100k man Russian national guard force is brought in.
Now, you can make the assumption that Russian national guard and American national guard are about in the same level of hardware maintenance. This original crew of 100k? I might make the assessment that they are on orders for a year, and will be replaced by another crew in twelve months (or less).
I would also make the assessment that just like in Afghanistan....this Russian crew will meet up with hostile locals and it won't be unusual for 100 Russian guardsmen to die, mysteriously disappear, or just walk off to some border each week.
Anyone in the Kremlin who think the remaining Ukrainian folks will just accept this....is joking themselves. It's an exact repeat of Afghanistan.
How many Ukrainian folks will escape off to Europe? Total population of Ukraine is 41.6-million, with 8.3-million being ethnic Russians. Just making a ballpark guess, I'd say that twelve to fifteen million will make their way to the border and assemble for refugee status throughout Europe....waiting.
So you need to ask yourself five key questions.
1. Can Ukraine factories and industry run/operate in this environment....with only 60-percent of people staying around? I'd laugh over this and say the vast amount of business and infrastructure stuff (water, power, subways, etc)....won't function. Nor can the Russians envision any fix for this.
2. Where will the 150k troops then go....return home? A number of military strategists think they will depart for Belarus, and be a 'pain' for the Baltic region....triggering a massive NATO build-up and the next confrontation (probably by May).
3. Can the puppet-folks expect anyone to take them serious in the Ukraine? No, and each week will be a test of their naïve nature and 3rd-grade charm.
4. Can the Ukraine business/commerce side produce anything in the middle of this mess? I'd say that most everything related to industry and agriculture will slip to 20-to-40 percent of what they were doing before.
5. How long will missing young men (Russian soldiers) be asked about from the families before the government has to admit that they died in the war, or just disappeared? For a number of folks....it'll be the moment where you realize how crapped up the government is in Russia, and you'd be better off....asking for asylum somewhere else in the world....at age 18.
No comments:
Post a Comment