We are about seven weeks away from the federal election in Germany.
The CDU's Laschet? About every two weeks that pass now....he falls around a point down. It's painfully obvious that he peaked out around a month ago. Presently, if you look over various polls....he's at 26 to 28 percent.
Scholz from the SPD? In the past week, he's climbed up to around 16 to 18 percent. On trends, I would suggest that he's picking up a point in the polls about every two weeks.
If you do the numbers and view the landscape, it's entirely possibly that Scholz might be up around 22 percent as the election occurs. He's likely to take some CDU voters, along with some Green voters.
Laschet? He would have to lose a good five points over the next two months....for Scholz to 'win'. The problem with this scenario....the SPD would be a very marginal winner, and building a coalition would be near to impossible (meaning three parties combining to make the coalition possible).
The odds of a five-point change for both Scholz and Laschet? Well....it's a lot of speculation and guessing involved. If Laschet did drop to around 22 percent....some CDU folks might suggest he ought to resign because it was a crappy end to this election for the party.
I will end this essay with this suggestion.....whatever results you get out of this 2021 election....it really lays out a weak four-year period for whatever coalition that comes.
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