Sunday, July 4, 2021

Possible No Coalition Government?

 In the last couple of days, the President of the Bundestag (Wolfgang Schäuble, CDU Party)....has gone and suggested something pretty radical.

Normally, after an election, the winner 'party' sits down and forms a coalition government.  I say 'normally' because it's been that way since 1949.

Well.....Schäuble suggested that things may not go very well after this election, and the long discussions about the 'agreement' to run a coalition government may become impossible.  So he's suggesting a minority government might be the solution....meaning no coalition, and you try to exist with 70-percent of the Bundestag membership possibly standing against you (if you figure the CDU-CSU win is to be only around 30-percent).

Radical?  Yeah.

Here's the likely outcome, the FDP is likely to be near 16-to-18 percent on their collection of votes, and they'd probably come very close to the policy program of the CDU-CSU folks.

This would put the Bundestag voting pattern at near 40-percent.   Then you have to wonder about the AfD folks, and how they'd view the CDU-CSU policy program.  They'd make up around 12-percent, and that would push the Bundestag 'blessing' business to the level that they could run a minority government.

A wise decision?  There's no history to compare against....so it's a crazy idea that might work. The worst outcome?  A vote of no-confidence, and forcing a possible new election (out of cycle).

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