Tuesday, September 3, 2024

If There Were a German Federal Election Today (Instead of Fall 2025)?

 Well....if you use the latest INSA poll....CDU-CSU would win (in the 31-percent range).

2nd place?  It'd go to AfD...around 19-percent.

SPD would be near 15-percent, with the Greens near 11-percent.

BSW?  Around 9.5-percent.

FDP?  They would fail to reach the 5-percent point....thus getting zero seats.

Linke?  Same story.....fail to reach 5-percent.

So you'd sit and ask....coalition-wise....where does the CDU-CSU situation go?  Well...since they can't partner with AfD....you are left with only two options.

Option 1: CDU-CSU, with BSW and SPD.

Option 2: CDU-CSU, with SPD and Greens.

All of this assumes that  the  Greens don't falter over the next 12 months....that BSW continues it's trend upward, and that AfD doesn't get 3-to-5 points higher.  It also assumes that the FDP doesn't repair it's problems and doesn't get back to the 5-percent point.

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