Saturday, January 31, 2015

France and the Eight-Year Old Kid

This is one of those oddball stories that require a minute or two to explain.

This week in France....teachers have been on the 'talk-Charlie' theme.  After the shootings in Paris, the French education system believes that it needs everyone to discuss the events and ensure students have the central theme out of Paris.

So, they came to this eight-year-old kid of Algerian background who lives in Nice, France.  The objective of the class project was to get everyone to recite "I am Charlie".  The kid responded "no"....he wouldn't participate in this theme.  Naturally, the teacher got hyped up, and it became a bigger event.

The eight-year old kid's dad gets called.  He shows up at the school and talking direct to the head of the school.  He defended the kid and this turned into some type of altercation.....at least both the father and the school director say that.  Charges could go either way.

The school authorities?  They've alerted the social service crowd that they think the kid is in some danger.  No comment if they've reacted to this.....if they might yank the kid from the home.....or how they might treat this.

If they yank the kid from the home.....where does he end up?  A social office home for abused kids?  would he get placed in a non-Muslim house?  Would the Muslim society in France claim some fundamental right that he has to be placed with the parents?  Would the French high court get involved?  Yeah, a bunch of questions.

Was it necessary to have some "I am Charlie" theme with eight-year old kids?  I might question that.....but then this is the society that openly talks on sexual subjects with eight-year old kids.....so it doesn't matter.

The amusing thing here is half of a class of eight-year old kids still believe in Santa and this whole "I am Charlie" theme might be way over their heads in terms of interest.

Bottom line?  A whole lot of hypocrites on all sides.

Talking Stolen Cars

The local news here in Hessen (my local state here in Germany) put up a statistical story on stolen cars.  It's an interesting story.

They can only cite the latest collection of data....2013.  From all of Germany, there were 19,935 cars stolen.  It's a couple of percent higher than 2012.

For my state of Hessen?  673 cars were stolen....maybe a six-percent increase over 2012.

From my small village area....since January of 2013, there's been around eight cars stolen.  One of the eight was recovered just before it was going to cross over the border into Czech.  It's become a topic which gets brought up occasionally.  The older folks can remember the 1970s when there were zero cars stolen from the village in any given year.

The belief by most folks is that the cars all end up in Poland and then moved onto Russia.  Rarely does anyone ever get their car back....so there's no way to validate if they are right about this or not.

I would project that as trends continue....folks will probably become more aggressive and spend additional money on anti-theft devices.

Friday, January 30, 2015

Words From the London Mayor

This week....London's mayor....Boris Johnson....did an interview with The Sun.  Johnson isn't the typical guy that you'd sit down for an intellectural analysis, or polite conversation.  He's direct.

So they asked his opinion of radical Muslims.

His response?  "If you look at all the psychological profiling about bombers, they typically will look at porn. They are literally w******. Severe onanists. They are tortured. They will be very badly adjusted in their relations with women, and that is a symptom of their feeling of being failure and that the world is against them. They are not making it with girls and so they turn to other forms of spiritual comfort - which of course is no comfort.  They are just young men in desperate need of self-esteem who do not have a particular mission in life, who feel that they are losers and this thing makes them feel strong - like winners."

Yep, a hard-hitting comment about the radicals running around in the name of God.

If you pull up a list of the hundred-odd gentlemen who've been involved in bombings in western nations.....there's several observations that you can draw.

Most are between eighteen and thirty years old.  Finding a guy over fifty?  Virtually impossible.

Most are men, with an occasional female in the group.  If you do find a female recruit.....same deal....the vast majority are between eighteen and thirty years old.

Most were inbetween jobs....meaning that career idea one didn't work out and if they are working...it's some relative's job opportunity that was offered to just get them through a period of unemployment.

If you study the psychological profile of suicidal people.....they all have reached a point of desperation and need some up-lifting experience to make them feel as they contributed something in society.  In essence, they need a purpose in life to fill a void.  Whether this was thought out or discussed with peers....is never really clear.  My humble opinion is that you need some people around with the same feelings....to keep your enthusiasm pumped up.  It would be interesting to take a cult-awareness seminar or course, and shuffle a dozen radicals through the same deal.....to see the mental results and changes.

Wondering about the "onamist" comment from Johnson?  That's a individual who is blessed with a good hand and makes himself happy when required.  I had to look it up because it's not a term that you generally hear in some British newspaper.

As for reaction of Johnson's comments?  He's spoken a thousand lines of quotes over his life that would typically embarrass most folks.  Another line or two wouldn't matter.  In this case, he made an observation over some odd things that he's noticed of the radical crowd, and it probably hurts some feelings.  Course, all you'd have to do is prove him wrong about it being just losers who end up as radicals.

New French Tactic on Radicals

After the Paris murders of three weeks ago....France has been on a fairly creative route to dismantle radicals operating in France.

The newest item?  It's a PR-theme that is being pushed on the internet and on posters.

The poster on the right leads to the suggestion....."You might be a radical....".

So, it goes to suggest when a guy is suddenly demotivated on a relationship.....has no interest in sports....isn't participating as a family member....stops interest in TV or life...then you might want to alert someone.

If you look at the suggestions....it's the same thing you'd get when some guy or gal has gone into a depressive mood and considering suicide.  They've given up on things of interest and just accepted some fate of death in the near future.

For several years, I've followed various news reports over individuals who've committed themselves to radical Islam.  Some did the war thing in Syria....some were recruited as players in some radical Islamic scholar's game-plan....and some were just signed up for death in the near future (mostly without any consideration of the value of their life, just some promise of some greater presence in the next world....the sixty or seventy innocent virgin story).

There are some odd things that you start to notice when you browse through as much news reports as I do.  You just don't find many people over the age of forty picked up in some recruitment drive.  There's an age deal to this whole recruitment thing.  Older guys are wiser, and don't buy into some dopey religious scholar's game.  They've got a family, a job, and a life.  Younger guys?  In a number of cases....the younger guys are failures in school, unemployed or just sitting there without any purpose in their life.

Years ago, I sat down and read over mass movements (Eric Hoffer wrote the defining book of mass movements....The True Believer - 1951).

To run a successful recruitment scheme for any mass movement.....you have the recruitment drivers who utilize three themes: persuasion, intimidation, and transformation.  You work on all three themes to gather supporters and brainless players in the mass movement.  The less intelligent....the better of your odds of recruitment.  The less success in life....the better your odds of gaining their trust.  The less view of their future.....the better your odds of converting them to death-only results.  It's a simple theme, if you think about it.

Across Europe....eager players of radicalism stand around in city parks, religious centers, and sport fields.....talking up the theme of the day.  Persuasion is linked to his subject matter and the way that the audience receives it.  If persuasion isn't working that well....flip to the intimidation level and use the individual's peers to center on this individual or this group.  As the guy gains their confidence....then flip to the final step....transformation.  You need X to commit to such-and-such plan, for the results to be positive.  Without transformation....there's no players in the scheme.

As far as I know....no one has ever taken Hoffer's book (The True Believer) and built a class out of it.  It's the perfect text document that you ought to present to fifteen-year old kids.  One simple document....three weeks of reading and discussing the document.....and you end up with kids who question movements and persuasion-talkers.  Sadly, we don't even press the document toward university students or intellectuals.  So, it's strictly by accident that you might bump into the book, read it, and ask yourself some odd questions.

As for my view of the French poster and it's effect on the public?  Sadly, public relations type posters are rarely read on school or public walls.  Maybe a thousand kids will see it.....ask questions.....and maybe a dozen will call to report on their cousin or brother who they feel are headed toward some radical lifestyle.  The dozen who report on their relatives?  Better than zero, but still it's not much to get excited about.

Murder by Family Story

We had a murder last week here in Hessen (my local state in Germany).  Journalists covered the episode and reported the body being found in a parking lot in Darmstadt.  Cops developed leads quickly and we have a bit of an unusual family killing.

A daughter.....nineteen years old....was actively engaged to some guy and announced to the family that she was marrying this guy.  The family.....immigrants....didn't bless the event, and instead determined that she needed to be terminated.

In the beginning.....the cops came to an uncle and aunt of the young lady....charging them. It's not clear how they figured the involvement unless someone noticed them hauling the victim away in their car. This morning....the cops arrested the fifty-one year old father and the forty-one year old mother of the victim.....as participants in the murder as well.

The young victim was chocked to death by one of the four.  They removed the body from the family apartment by using grandma's wheelchair....driving out of the area with the family car, and then wheeled the dead girl out to some parking lot....dumping her there.  Even I'll admit....it's pretty bizarre.

All authorities will say is that the young lady was a Pakistani-German, and the parents emigrated into Germany in recent years.  The fiancee in this case?  He's another Pakistani-German.

Charges?  Authorities aren't saying except murder, and accessory to murder will be involved in the court episode.

On average, within Hessen....I'd say that some immigrant-on-immigrant murder or assault likely occurs at least weekly, and in the eighteen-odd months I've lived in Wiesbaden....I've seen at least six to eight murders from the state which connect to refugee/asylum seeker/immigrant.  From each of these, the newspapers will give a bare bit of details....just enough to tell a basic story.  It usually involves a bad relationship or sudden pregnancy or family chaos over managing everyone's life within the family.

Thursday, January 29, 2015

The Data Story

An EU proposal has come up after the Paris killings of two weeks ago.  Basically, they want all travel data that you use for airline trips....to be stored for five years.  And we aren't just talking about a name and day kind of info.....over forty different pieces of data would be stored.

It'd basically lay out a passenger's history and behavior.  His country of origin, the passport used, the expiration date on the passport, gender, date of birth, travel itinerary, email address, ticket number, seat number, payment method, etc....would all be kept for up to five years.

Even the travel agent involved.....would be listed, along with the bags used or special requests like vegetarian food or upgraded seats.

The odds of it passing?  A year ago?  It would have been regarded as a no-go idea.  Today?  It might be fairly easy to pass.

The question is....what might we open up the database and use the data for?  Just terrorism?  Maybe banking scandals?  Perhaps robbery suspects?  One might question the other reasons for keeping the data.

Russian Story

It is a comical way of hitting back at Germany....but Russia laid down a card that requires some pondering.

The speaker of the Russian Duma....their parliament....has asked for a review over the idea of condemning Germany for "grabbing East Germany" in 1990 and performing an annex of the area, without allowing a vote.

It's slamming Germany over the Ukraine business, and the way that the Crimea was handled (allowing a vote process).

What can be said back in 1990....is that as the East German (DDR) government fell....it was a rather quick process of negotiation, and consolidation.  No vote was ever set to a stage.....asking West Germans if they wanted to take back to the former part of Germany.....or asking East Germans if they wanted to be part of Germany.

The Russians may have a point on the process, and that a vote would have sealed the whole process, unlike what was done in Ukraine or Crimea.

The outcome in 1990 if a vote had occurred?  No one can say.  There might have been a quarter of the population who wanted to continue on with the DDR government.  If you walked around today and asked if eastern Germans wanted their own republic.....they might get a quarter of the vote to support such an idea.  You might even get a quarter of the west German population who demand that it be split off.

It's a decent Russia front-page story for twenty-four hours.....if you ask me....without much value.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Trying to Make Sense Out of Pegida Today

After last week's episode where a photo popped up of the originator of Pegida in Dresden.....showing him in a Hitler-like pose for some costume party months ago.....Lutz Bachmann stepped down.  Or, that's what he said at the time.

Folks generally thought it was a wise move and figured that the head committee would find ways of moving on.

Today, it came out that the chief spokesperson of Pegida is quitting.  Two issues popped up.  The first being that Bachmann didn't really quit and wants to still be the leader in some fashion.  That didn't sit well with the committee running the group.

The second issue for Frau Oretel is simply threats that have been made on her.  She finally enough and intends to step back.

Generally, I'd say that the organization isn't in a growth period, and winter really screws up the numbers of people who might demonstrate.  There's also no real connection between AfD (the political party) and Pegida.  AfD likes the talk of them being the alternate place to go instead of the SPD or CDU for these issues.  Getting some type of political promise out of AfD?  Yet to happen, and may never happen.  Free advertising, if you ask me.

As for the speaker job for Pegida?  On a scale of honesty, Frau Oretel was pushing a 'nine' (my humble opinion).  She probably wasn't the best or most qualified person for the job, but she could sit in public forum and give a decent position.

As for the threat business?  Bad taste, bad logic, and ends up making the anti-Pegida position look negative.

At the end of the day......there are issues with immigration, refugee centers, and integration.  The networks (HR, ARD, and ZDF), along with Focus, Stern, the Frankfurt newspaper, and various dailies in Germany all hinted of problems from the summer of 2013 up to October of 2014, when Pegida suddenly appeared to take up the problem list.  Suddenly, the media acts like there are no problems?  Shocking, but then you wonder....what was all the talk about?  If there are issues....lay them on the table.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

More Swiss Franc Stuff

I commented a day or two ago....about a county here in Hessen....Rhinegau-Taunus (the next valley over from me) who had the Swiss Franc loan, and went into absolute shock ten days ago as the Swiss took itself off the chained-exchange rate.  Overnight.....the Franc became twenty-percent more expensive, and everyone with loans were in serious trouble.

Well...there was supposed to be a press conference today in Rhinegau-Taunus, with the head of the county commission (an SPD guy), and it was cancelled as of this morning.

The state finance officer is blasting away that the whole gimmick used to get the cheaper interest rate....put the county into serious financial jeopardy.

Somewhere in the sixty-million Euro range....the county has acquired quick and unexpected extra debt.  No one can say for sure....how this will be fixed.

There's basically only three methods.  One, they could ask the Hessen state for more money, but it's zero chance they will get it.  Two, they could stall infrastructure projects (roads, bridges, renovation, public buildings, etc) for two or three years....upsetting the locals greatly but making up the loss.  Three, increase property taxes substantially.....probably by two or three times the current taxation rate....angering residents in the region for the next decade.  Without the ability to do sales taxes....they really are limited.

My humble guess is that the news conference to discuss this....will be rescheduled by next Monday.  I suspect that they will find a German bank to make the loan for now, and just try to pay off this debt as quickly as possible before the Swiss rate climbs even higher.  As for halting infrastructure projects?  I'd give it a ninety-percent chance of happening.  But we might be talking about more than two or three years of this.

It is one of those rare occasions when a German group of financial wizards really screwed up badly, and they have no way of fixing or solving the mess.

The Swiss Pegida Points

For most folks, they tend to view the news and come to some aspect over Pegida (the anti-Muslim group in Germany), and think it's a one-country deal.  It's not.

I noticed in the last couple of weeks that the Swiss also have their version of Pegida, which published a fourteen-point objective:

1.  They favor less asylum seekers.  The current number in Switzerland is roughly 200 seekers per one social worker.  There's no way that the social workers can stay on top of their individual and assist them.  Either more social workers need to be hired, or the number of seekers be decreased.

2.  Enforce the laws.  If the asylum seeker is on a temp entry visa and commits a crime....remove him or her from Switzerland.

3.  Zero tolerance for any asylum seeker who has committed crimes in the past and these get noted in the investigation process.

4.  Stop all asylum processes if a conviction is noted in the individual's past.

5.  No further processing of an entry person if they show anti-women tendencies or violent past actions.

6.  Absolute support of sexual freedom.  If an entry person is gay and wants to practice that life-style....the Swiss Pegida is in full support of their entry.

7.  Protection of existing religions.  They didn't go into many details, but it's safe to say that you can't practice a religion in Switzerland that has some rules against other religions.

8.  Against weapons exports to countries that show violent tendencies.

9.  Integration is tied to language ability to handle a situation at least through elementary school level.  You wouldn't get citizenship unless you show this ability.

10.  Swiss Pegida is against EU Court of Justice involvement in any immigration affair.  All asylum episodes are Swiss-run and to be no outside influence.

11.  No facial coverings in public.  Direct slam on Islamic groups who advocate such a covering.

12.  No religious members in government offices or voted into office for any position.  If you are a priest, minister, or religious scholar.....no government involvement.

13.  Against all radicals.....religious or political.

14.  Against all hate protocols, to include political or religious.

It's a curious listing because there's only two items which directed to Islam.  The rest have more of a connection to the running of a effective community, protection of society, and ensuring personal rights.

The last item puts the anti-Pegida groups into a difficult position....meaning they have to approve of hate protocols in going against Pegida.

A School Event?

Up in the far north of Germany....lies Lubeck...a coastal community on the Baltic.  This week, they got themselves into the news.  It won't be page one or page two....but it's a curious episode.

In recent weeks, there's been anti-Pegida demonstrations or events.  Everyone is hyped up to put on a freedom, tolerance, openness, diversity, and acceptance "show".

So, the teachers and management folks from the Lubeck school environment made a decision that "ENCOURAGED" (might be better said forced) roughly a thousand kids from the school system to be part of the show.

The local newspaper covered the event and wrote up on the fine episode.  The problem then occurred.....kids wrote onto the Facebook page of the newspaper....they were forced to the event.

Generally, it's believed that half of the kids simply did not want to attend....although you can't cite absolute evidence on anything.....it might be fifty percent....it might be eighty percent.

The episode came off to be seen as a mandatory-attendance event.  You had to show up.  In the states....a kid would have shown up....walked around for ten minutes and then quietly drifted off to the park to sip beer with his buddies or head back home to say 'sure, I was there' if anyone asked.

The school's reaction?  According to various newspapers....the director of the area's schools tried to defend this.  For practical purposes....they labeled attendance as a school event so that kids could attend easily (thus being dismissed out of class).  I think he's probably correct on that.....but as word goes down each step.....it probably got interpreted in different ways, and at the end-point.....kids understood this to be mandatory.

The one other aspect of this that might come out.....other kids throughout Germany will look at the comments and the mandatory directions given....seeing some similar characteristics.  This probably won't be the last "encouraged" event that got wrapped around the axle.  When you get to a point where freedom, tolerance, openness, diversity and acceptance is mandatory and demanded.....then they aren't so pure with their intentions.

Monday, January 26, 2015

Explaining Auschwitz, the Camps, and Eugenics

This is the week of the the 70th anniversary that Auschwitz was liberated.  Several documentary pieces will be featured on German state-run TV....trying to explain again (probably the 300th time for most Germans over the age of forty).  For Americans, it's a historical thing.....concentration camps really lay out a pretty negative piece of German history.

I've sat and read more than most people....trying to analyze how one gets to the point of this being 'normal and acceptable'.  I look around German society today, and there's simply no explanation that fits right.

So, I've come to some history items which start to make sense and lay out how you get from point A to point B.

In the early part of this last century.....there's a science that developed.  We might argue over this and say it was NEVER a science, or that it was a bogus science.....but it was regarded as an actual science by intellectuals and political figures at the time.  Various terms might be used, but the best I think.....is Eugenics.

Eugenics is where you identify that society has gone off the scale....allowed marginally intelligent people to be part of society....dimwits....incompetent fools....along with sleezy women who get pregnant when they aren't married, and you think society ought to clean itself up.

The idea was with Eugenics....they had the authority and the ability to finally clean up society.  It was their duty as scientists and intellectuals to do this.  So they believed it.

The general peak of Eugenics in Germany...came after WW I.  However, the growth period was from the 1860s to 1890s....where people openly advocated the idea of sterilization and castration.  Francis Galton was the chief proponent who pushed the idea on various forums, and medical establishments saw some wisdom in the deal.  The fact that we had medical abilities now to accomplish this...simply added more fuel to the fire.

By the 1930s in Germany....science had probably pushed it back as a legit thing....but along came Ernst Rudin. Rudin pressed the concept of Eugenics as a necessary part of life in Germany.  The Nazi Party studied the concept and agreed.  Pure Germans would be retained and continue society's progression....unpure Germans would be sterilized.

Here in the region where I live.....there was a facility which quietly became a sterilization point in the mid-1930s.  Men and women would be sent there, and it was commonly accepted in the region that this was all good and acceptable.  Buses would have schedules and local town mayors would ensure the 'right' people were put on the bus and taken to the Hadamar facility.

As time went by....the same intellectual crowd pressed that just sterilizing was not enough, and that elimination was the next step.  This included simply providing a solution to a doctor....administrating the shot....and letting the patient quietly die on the table.  Their body would be burned later to dispose of it.

Acceptance came as you went from step to step.  No one challenged the thought process.

So, once you got over that step....bringing the Jews into the mix was simple.  You already accepted the dimwits, and socially unacceptable people being eliminated....the Jews were simply the next step.  As you notice in time....gays also were brought in.  Had World War II not occurred.....society would have stepped through various groups....noting each violated some view of Eugenics.

This is how society evolved....changed....and just plain accepted the deaths of thousands.  They didn't start with the Jews....they were simply the next step (same as the gays).

Few talk today about Eugenics.  It's not a science.  It's really difficult to bring this up and explain the logic and how so many individuals......not just Germans, but British, French, and even Americans....bought into the idea.  The Germans just incorporated it into the massive program....added full-up camps....and decided that the Jews were part of the demise of society.

More Fake Cops

I bring this topic up a good bit.  Since early 2014, I've probably noticed at least a dozen fake-cop episodes.

Der Western (a German newspaper from around Dortmund) put up an interesting story.

Woman is quietly sleeping when her doorbell rings at 3:20AM.  She goes to the door. They are in civilian clothing but showing a fake police badge.  What they say is....they've got a warrant for her arrest, and the only way to avoid such an arrest is to pay the fine NOW.  The journalist didn't say the amount and I can only assume it's a minor amount like an hundred or two-hundred Euro.

You can imagine yourself getting up and answering the door.  You haven't had your coffee yet.  Cops with badges.  Your thoughts would not be clear.  Fear would be the instinctive reaction.

However, in this case....the woman stood there and began to assemble thoughts.....then gauged it as a scam.  The two guys realized this, and ran off into the night.  Other than a basic description of the two....nothing else.

I admit....it's remarkable that you'd do this at 3:20 AM and think that you'd get away with it.  But we've reached a point with fake cops....that people question things now.

Explaining Absurdistan

Absurdistan came up in German topics over the past week or two.

It's a word that loosely translates into the idea of the German government creating so many regulations....that it's impossible to run a business.

The new rules coming?

First, there's a rule being pushed and will be made German federal law....that says you must provide a lockable locker in the office area.  The cost?  It will be your own responsibility as the boss or owner of the company.  How big of a locker?  That hasn't been discussed and folks might be shocked to find a fairly small and marginal locker in place....thus requiring more rules to require a bigger locker down the road.

Second, there must be mandatory space in front of each keyboard....to allow the palms of your hands to rest.  Cost?  Back to the company.  Creating a huge mess?  Well...if you have limited desk space....there's no way to fix this except with an entirely new desk, and perhaps a new layout of the office.

Third, mandatory window breaks.  I haven't the precise direction that is given on this....but reporters tend to say that when break-time occurs....you should have a chance to see actual sunlight or landscape....not a plain break area.  For a warehouse operation....it'll be hard to see the method to fix this....unless you make a fake window with a fake sunlight device in the background.

All of this got tossed into the blender and noted as a negative by one major employer....saying "bureaucratic madness in Absurdistan".  The government office bringing this up?  The Federal Office of Labor....run by a SPD minister currently.

Debate to come?  It'll have to be brought up in the Bundestag and there's some question if the CDU will agree with this.  Naturally, you can envision the Linke Party and Greens in full agreement....so it will likely pass.

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Explaining the Election from Greece

The quickly called election in Greece will occur today (Sunday).

To set the stage....Greece came through the 2008 world economic stumble....admitting it was bankrupt.  The books used to convince the EU that they were ready back around 2000 to enter into the Euro business?  Two book.....one looking good, and the real one which displayed substantial faults.

Most economic experts will say it's not a recent development.....that Greece has been screwed up on finances for a minimum of fifty years.....some will even go back to 1942 and say it started then.

To save Greece.....the EU and Germany to a great extent....gave them a loan of 240-billion Euro.  There's a pay-back plan.  Most all economic experts that I've seen interviewed over this in the past month have said that the loan basically did nothing except to stall or extend Greece to the next default.  The government has been unable to sustain any rebuilding and confidence.

So, what this election is about....covers three things.  First, whoever wins....will have to forge a collation....because it's doubtful that any party will get a majority.  The agreements forged in this team-building exercise might go from one extreme to the other.  Second, it's doubtful that the new government will want to repay the 240-billion Euro....perhaps asking for forgiveness over the bulk (this happened in the 1950s with Germany....where a massive loan was simply forgiven).  Third, the new government might say 'enough' and quit the Euro and the EU.  This act would be a serious episode and possibly trigger some talks in Europe over the direction forward.

In the last couple of years, the topic of Germany owing Greece has continually come up.  There are two views to this.  One.....Germany squeezed out a loan in 1942 as they invaded Greece....which by today's value is eleven billion Euro.  Pay-back of that loan has not occurred.  Even if Germany agreed to the eleven-billion Euro as part of some forgiveness package deal....there's still 220-plus billion left that they'd have to pay back to the EU itself.  The second issue here is damages caused to infrastructure from WW II.  From this....no one has ever sat down and assembled a list of bridges destroyed or buildings blown up.  Greece had a fair amount of damage done.

All of this revolves around the only significant gimmick of money coming into Greece....tourism....and two-million-odd Germans who come each year and spend money at resorts and seaside villages.  By the time you add in rental cars, shopping, food, booze, and a week or two at some resort....the typical German will probably spend at least a thousand Euro each.  In some ways, you have to be careful on the direction that this exit occurs and how many insults you can throw at Germans before they react and they start to skip Greece as a destination.  Germans aren't the only tourists.....but they do make up roughly twenty-percent (Wiki numbers) of the big picture.

The election results?  A big deal.  And likely to create some massive trend that is hard to steer in one direction or another.  The bottom line?  Greece will be center-stage for the next month on your nightly news as they try to assemble the government from this election, and launch toward the new strategy....which is currently unpredictable.

Saturday, January 24, 2015

The Numbers Game

Some statistics came out this week in Germany...which triggered a number of people to ponder upon the meaning of the numbers.

The federal office in Germany, responsible for all statistics, said that the current numbers for 2013 indicate that roughly three million Germans are on the upper edge of poverty....making just slightly above the Hartz IV rate.....thus becoming the working-poor.  These are people who make late payments, miss the apartment rental payment, and survive off marginal food supplements.

The office looked back at the number for five years prior and noted that there were roughly two-and-a-half-million people then.....so the number has grown.

They even came to note that roughly 600,000 of these people...don't have the financial capital to own a car.

The real story here?  Germany has done a great job in creating jobs and stabilizing the economy.  Salaries have been somewhat stagnant, and various tools have been invented to hire lower-income employees.  When you step into a store and the guy isn't that eager person you'd like to deal with as a customer.....you might want to think about the fact that he's probably making a marginal income and just doesn't care anymore....he's lost interest in the customers of the business.

The same is true when someone notes that they haven't really done anything in six years, with the six weeks of vacation they get each year....because they don't make enough to do anything.  Other than sitting at the city pool or just sitting at home and watching TV....that's their normal summer vacation.

The odds in five more years?  Unless something changes....it'll be three-and-a-half million people who are marginally surviving without Hartz IV, growing another half-million.

Just inventing jobs won't work.  Just telling people to slide the minimum wage into place won't work.  And bringing Bulgarians in to do the crap-work won't work.

In a way, there's going to be some type of way where things change, with salaries in some better fashion.  The question is....how to get from here to there.

The Bike Story

If you walk around any urban or rural area of Germany....you tend to say that bikes are fairly popular.  Statistical analysis notes that there's almost one bike for every single German (somehow, they've figured it out to roughly seventy-one million bikes).  I'm not sure of the accuracy of the number and would question if a quarter of the bikes are simply sitting in the basement....wasting away.  I'd also note that these urban bike-rental deals are popping up and cities like Mainz and Wiesbaden probably have at least a thousand bikes each....in rental status on some street.

Anyway....all of this leads to the topic of drinking and biking (not driving).  Folks have come to note that Germans like to drink a bit, and will then ride their bikes.

In a car, as a driver....you are considered legally drunk and unable to drive when your blood-alcohol level gets to .5 percent.

Up until this week....a bike rider was considered drunk and unfit to ride a bike at 1.6 percent.  Yeah, they'd actually done tests to show balance was just about impossible at that point.  To be honest, I would think balance would be difficult at .5 percent.

Well....anyway.....the Auto Club of Europe sat down and looked at the numbers in Germany.  Seventy-seven thousand folks injured yearly from bikes.  This was gleaned from hospital/insurance records.  A fair sum, you must admit.  In the middle of their analysis....they've come to realize that around three thousand of these bike accidents relate to alcohol.  This got the government to asking questions.

So, this week, they lowered the drunk-while-biking limit to 1.1.

Most of us would say that it ought to logically be .5 like the car driver limit.....but they seemed to want to avoid putting the bikers into the same category.

Do cops actually stop guys on bikes for the alcohol tests?  Yeah....that's a common theme throughout the summer months (not so much in the winter).  They will position a couple of cops near urban centers...pull them to the side and demand a test.  As long as they see you just pushing your bike while over the 1.1 level....you might avoid a ticket.

Bottom line?  Riding a bike is serious business, and mixing alcohol into the episode isn't bright.

Maybe A Conclusion to the Limburg Affair

Back in the fall of 2013....we had this episode brew up in the region I live....near Limburg (about fifteen miles away).  Basically, the Catholic Church in Limburg, via their Bishop (Tebartz van Elst)....had decided on renovation work for the local church, and the Bishop's compound (I describe it as such, but some folks would just say residence).

The original talked about renovation would have been a couple million Euro, at least that's what journalists tend to say.  I've yet to see the plans of the original renovation.  Near the end of the episode....over thirty million Euro were spent.  A number of things were added onto the plan as things developed.  It's safe to say....the Bishop is a lousy plans manager and has zero talent as a project manager.

Things got tight in the local area....folks peeved over what the Bishop had done....so the Catholic Church walked into the mess and removed him (fired might be appropriately used as well).

They sent the guy off to some quiet place in Bavaria.  They did the big report, and then let things simmer.

Yesterday, they've announced that the fifteen months of reflection are over, and the Bishop is now hired to come to Rome and be a secretary to the Pope.  Yeah, basically....the time-out is over.

Folks around Limburg still question the whole thing, but it's done.....the money has been spent, and they have a mega-class residence for some Catholic Bishop sitting there.

The new job?  Something to do with social changes and bringing the Pope into the modern era.  It's a new concept or office, which has only been around for five years.  There's zero chance that the Bishop will be handling big-time money or renovation projects....maybe that's a positive. Criminal charges from the Limburg episode?  No.....it just won't happen.  As much as some folks talk bad about what was done....the authorities just can't bring themselves to run up charges against some Bishop.

Grasping QE

This week has probably been one of the most dramatic episodes in EU history (note, the EU hasn't been around that long, so don't get excited).

The EU banking arm finally came out and said that it's up for Quantitative Easing (QE).  Explaining QE?  Well....this central banking structure of the EU makes a decision to get all central banks across the EU (each country has them) to invent money (it's best not to ask how this will occur), then turn around and buy bank bonds across the European landscape.  By buying the bonds.....the banks who originated the bond.....now have free money....to loan out.  Then people have a chance to buy into this free money via credit.  The idea would be that a company could broaden itself by asking for a 500-million Euro loan to buy another company.  Or at the personal level.....you could find a housing loan at a much better rate.

The end-result?  It basically pushes the dollar back toward the original parity that existed upon creation....one to one.  It hasn't been that way for over ten years.  At one point....the weak dollar was .63 to one Euro.  In effect.....if you found a great twenty-thousand Euro car, and had a chance to buy it while an American.....you'd be talking about over thirty-thousand dollars to buy the car.

The better way?  The McDonald's menu dinner.  For what you'd buy in the US....it would have been roughly $4.99.  Getting the same deal in Frankfurt?  Roughly $5.90 if you bought the Euro to purchase the same dinner.

Yesterday, the rate slide to .86.....a shocking change for an American who got used to the lower rates of .70 for a number of years.

Now, what does it do for Americans?  It means European items start to get cheaper.  At the parity of one to one?  A guy might find an interesting hotel in Wiesbaden  that is suddenly affordable to buy. A guy might find a steel industry worth investing into.  A guy might find property in Hamburg worth investing into.  It opens big doors.  It also closes big doors.....with cheaper American products now NOT so cheap.  A German used to take 1,500 Euro and do a major vacation in the US.  To do the same type vacation now?  He'd have to pull out 2000 Euro.

Yeah, in a couple of ways, it hurts the US.  We got used to the slanted deal and standard policy for the Bush administration.

Does it invent problems down the line?  Well....it'll mean some Americans showing up and buying businesses....which some Germans might not be happy about.  Will too many bonds be bought?  No one can say.  Will too much credit be pushed around society in Europe and invent a new bubble?  No one can say.

For now, I'd say QE will be around for the next ten years, and we will see the Euro move by the end of 2015 to one-to-one.....with it possibly even going to 1.1 or 1.2 by the end of 2016.  In effect, a real shocker for Americans who've messed with the Euro for the past decade.  You might actually be able to buy that $4.99 McDonalds menu dinner for $4.60 eventually here in Frankfurt.

Thursday, January 22, 2015

A Local Example of the Swiss Franc Mess

Our local news folks (HR, public-run Hessen network) ran a decent story today over the relationship issue with the Swiss Franc and damages done to German finances.

A local county here in the region.....Rheingau-Taunus.....had gone out in 2008 to get a loan to cover operating cost.  Because of the terrific rate involved....roughly 1.5 percent interest....they went to the Swiss National Bank and borrowed a fair sum of money.  It made financial sense at the time.  I should note that various individuals spoke up about warnings.....doing business with a foreign currency, means a significant risk is always possible.  No one listened or they simply didn't believe the risk.

This week, they've admitted the loss....since last week's effort by the Swiss folks to put the Franc back onto a real exchange rate.  Overnight, the amount involved in this whole thing.....went up by 63 million Euro.  A fair chunk of money that wasn't expected, on top of what you already owed.

What happens now?  Well....they have to find some method of taxation and royally screw the local residents of the county as much as possible.  They can't do anything with the VAT....that's federally mandated and set.  So, it's mostly property taxes and extra fees thrown into everyday life.  Everyone in the county area can probably expect a five-to-ten percent property tax rise as a minimum....maybe even twenty-five percent.  Road renovation?  I wouldn't expect any project in the county to be active for at least five years....it'll be patch-work mostly.

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

A News Site That I Quit Today

From the ten-odd news sources I'd typically use to read over German daily news....thelocal.de used to be one of the ten.  I'd probably gone to their site daily for six or seven years and considered a decent site for the top five stories of the day in Germany.

This week, I quit going to thelocal.de.

Since summer of last year, I had noticed more and more stories that had to do with immigration, Muslims in Germany, and asylum.....at least ten stories a week on average.  Each story, like all the stories on cars, crime, technology development, the economy, banking, etc.....left a comments area.  The comments by other readers....often were more interesting than the story told itself.

As time went by, I'd come to notice that such-and-such guy who was a regular comments guy....disappeared.  He just didn't appear.

About a month ago, I noted that while I could read the stories.....thelocal.de management folks had ID'ed me and removed my access to comment on numerous topics.....mostly immigration and asylum.  I could read, but I couldn't comment.

It was their method of quietening down the audience.  They didn't want aggravated or hurt-feelings among the readers they had.  Oddly, I'm guessing a number of folks are like myself.....they've quit thelocal.de and don't use the news service anymore.  Less numbers....mean less advertising money that rolls in.  If you lose half your readers....you have a problem.

My guess is that thelocal.de is on a trend.  After a while....folks will just skip it and go onto real German newspapers or Focus, or Stern, or ARD.

Some guy within thelocal management team will cite less aggravated readers as a positive trend.....but then he can't figure out why fewer people read the local or why people just quit using the site.  At least he'll be happy with the trend they started......and maybe one day will find no need to continue the operation of the news site.


An Odd Measurement

The last couple of days, I've noted through various German news media publications....that folks wanted to cite the number of Facebook friends of Pegida.....the anti-immigration folks out of Dresden....as a significant factor.  I guess I've come across this quantity of Facebook friends topic....at least a dozen times.  Bild, Focus, the various German state-run TV folks, and numerous newspapers....engage in this odd measurement.

If you are a Hollywood-type individual....you need to show a minimum of 100,000 Facebook friends....to have any significance.  I noted reading some guy's comments.....talking about his daughter's Facebook account back in December....that she now had over 1,500 friends....but he just couldn't figure how she knew that many people unless she was a bartender at some local college bar.  I noted today that basketball great.....Larry Bird......has roughly 103,000 Facebook friends, which sounds impressive but does it really mean anything?

So, the German news folks want you to know that there's only 3,500-odd friends of Pegida in Dresden.  Then they wanted you to know that the anti-groups that hate Pegida.....have more friends.  Sometimes, they cite the actual group, and friends involved.

I might stand here and note....few newspapers....even German newspapers.....like to cite their subscription levels or daily readership.  The harsh reality is that the year-by-year trend tends to go downward.  Newspaper "friends" aren't something that you brag much about.

How many Germans even participate in Facebook?  In 2010, there were barely eight million users....for 2014, the number has managed to get up to 22 million.

How many are fake Facebook accounts?  Well, normally....this topic doesn't come up but some folks have done the research and note that between 5.5 and 11.6 percent of all Facebook accounts.....are fake.  It's Facebook that admits this.

So you can assume that a minimum of two million of the 22 million German Facebook accounts are fake.

The number of folks who are friends of Pegida but fake?  Unknown.  The number of folks who are friends of the anti-Pegida folks?  Unknown.

The sad truth?  Well....fifty percent of Pegida friends might just be imaginary or fake.  Thousands of the friends of the anti-Pegida crowd?  They might be imaginary or fake.

So all this pumped talk by the news media?  It's not concrete or really factual....just opinion, because you can't conclude anything.  If you want critical thinking.....you start with accurate information, which you don't have here.

We are living in a society where an odd measurement has popped up.....Facebook friends, and it might be the most untrustworthy measurement ever devised, in the history of mankind.  Luengenpresse, anyone?

How Germany Accepts Guys With Two Wives

It's one of those odd things you come across with the Germans.  About a decade ago....the Germans were all enthusiastic about helping the poor Iraqis, who wanted asylum in Germany.

So, there was this one brief episode to occur where the Iraqi (naturally a Muslim) had two wives, and wanted asylum.  A Pfalz court got involved and finally determined as part of the asylum process.....if indeed a guy was married in his home country to two wives (had to be a valid marriage, probably paperwork, I imagine), the the first wife got a residence permit, and the second wife would be shown "tolerance for several years" with a residence permit as well.  Nothing in the court document 10 A 11717/ 03.OVG shows a divorce required, and one would assume that the guy just keeps going for the rest of his life, in Germany.....with TWO wives.

A review later and some tolerant method to separate the second wife?  No, the court of the state of the Pfalz simply said that the second would have several years of German tolerance.  Social security pension via the husband to both wives?  You'd have to take a wild guess that it'll come up as both wives apply and this 10 A 11717/03.OVG rule will open the door for that.

More or less, the German court system has already stepped into the religious political question and taken more than a step or two.

What keeps a German guy from journeying to the Middle East and marrying two German women, then returning to cite the same code and demand that the German government recognize multiple marriages?  Only the fact that no one has grasped this gimmick yet to force the issue.

Hart Aber Fair Program From Monday Night

From the weekend, there was lead-in points for last night's "Tough But Fair" TV on Germany's Channel One (ARD).  The topic was terrorism and one might think it'd been a fairly decent discussion.

About fifteen minutes into the piece, the host got to a journalist who'd been recently into ISIS-controlled lands, and he dumped his vast interviews into the mix.  The big subject?  The responsibility for ISIS existing?  George W. Bush.  Yeah.

So, the way that he explained this is that after the 9-11 crowd had killed 3,500 people from western civilization....George W. Bush went and killed 500,000 Iraqis.  Because of this imbalance....ISIS is thus created to fight unfairness.  The audience applauded at this point and at least one of the other guests chimed in that it was correct.

No one asked what right that the 3,500 had to die....if they had asked....there would have been mostly silence in the room.  The sad suggestion here is that if George W. Bush had only killed 3,500 Iraqis....everything would have been absolutely fine, and life would be perfect in this world of balanced numbers.  This is the type of mentality that people advocate.

So, the remainder of the program went mostly this way.....no effort to define the terrorism players, significant comments over the evils of the internet, Twitter, and Facebook for helping terrorists communicate, and the ethical dilemma facing German citizens because we will have to take rights away to achieve some success in preserving the peace.

The top comical piece from the night?  At some point, the group got around to the topic of brutal dictators being the only method of controlling radicals.  So Saddam got mentioned, and Egypt's Sadat/Mubarak.  I guess they could have thrown in Syria's Assad (Dad and Son).  Maybe they could have thrown in the Saudi management team, along with Libya's brutal dictator as well.  As the media crowd tried to suggest....brutal dictators keep radicals of religion under control.....so it's a good thing.

I sat there....thinking over this....then it'd make perfect sense.  Mexico's brutal dictator-presidents of the past were the correct answer in keeping radicalism under control.  The Soviet Union, Russia, and China were perfectly right for brutal leadership....to preserve peace.  The Cubans were right to use brutal dictators....as was the El Salvadorian leadership of the 1970s.  Same deal for Chile, Pakistan, Turkey, Greece, Argentina, South Africa, and Iran (using the evil Shah to preserve peace).

Using the help of brutal dictators....it's hard to see why you'd even condemn any of them....because they only seek to protect you from the even-worse radicals.

I suspect any German who sat and watched this weird discussion group.....came to the end....confused and dazed.

If I were Germans worried about terrorism, relying upon these characters of the panel....I wouldn't worry.  The terrorists will be in charge within fifty years.

Monday, January 19, 2015

Sunday Night Chat Show

I sat and watched the Channel One's (ARD) political chat show last night (Jauch, at 9:45).  The topic?  Pegida....up close, with the AfD spokesperson and the Pegida public media person on one side, two political guys (one each from the SPD and CDU), and one guy who seemed to be more of a journalist than anything else.  The moderator....Jauch.....did a fair job but I think he wanted to simply get everyone through the evening and avoid an epic discussion on the big topic.

This gal from Dresden (Pegida).....Oertel?  I think until the last ten minutes of the debate....she carried her weight well (being her first national TV episode).  At some point, she pulled out notes and went off onto three or four non-debate sentences and I think she knocked herself down a point with that act.

What came out of the episode is simply some words that the political machine (the Bundestag and Chancellor's office) probably need some open debate and reasonable discussions.  As Frau Oertel put it on at least one point....the public doesn't think the news media or the politicians are listening.  Pegida and it's marches are the only way to draw such attention.

At some point, one of the anti-Pegida talkers wanted to drag in the subject of criminal backgrounds of some Pegida members....which drew an odd response.  Frau Oertel brought up the fact that everyone has 'mistakes'....then noting that one of the top Green political figures was seen on his apartment balcony with a fully-grown marijuana plant. She didn't mention the child-sex guy with the SPD or the recent Bundestag guy busted for buying meth.....but they both easily fit into the 'mistakes' column, and the Bundestag seems to survive with them.

At some point, someone from the panel tried to dump on Pegida a bit by asking why only protests or marches occur in Dresden to a significant degree?  The response came in an interesting detail.....as Frau Oertel noted....people in Germany get pumped up rain-forests and child-labor in India....which is fair but you could say they are also 'outside of the box'.

All in all?  A fair talk session.  The key point I think for the evening was some comeback where it was noted.....if you have to cancel a protest march because of threats....what does it say about the safety and stability of Germany in itself?

No one notes this morning of the audience....how many watched and what it impact it has on the public.

I noticed off of Bild though this morning....an info page with the note of 43,190 potential Islamic fundamentalists in Germany.  The source of the number?  Unknown....Bild didn't cite their source and you can only suspect it's from the state police.  Bild also cites 585 Germans (mostly men), who've gone off to Syria and actively work for ISIS now.  Again, no citing of the source and you'd have to think it was the state police number.

The likely path coming out of this whole thing?  The CDU/CSU folks have  to worry over 2017, no Merkel as candidate, and possible growth of AfD voters.  Continuing down the current path won't be the plan.  I'd also suspect that SPD has some worries that some of their voters might cross the line and vote AfD as a protest vote.  There's some type of strategy change coming in 2015 to immigration, refugees, and Islamic political activity in Germany.

Just Kassel International Airport Now

In recent months, I've written an essay or two on the Kassel-Calden Airport....an hour or two north of Frankfurt.  It's a mini-airport which the German government poured in approximately 275-odd million to invite business into the local area of Kassel.  Because of EU rules....they've come to the end of pumping money into the airport and are in a stage where they desperately need to show business or sell the operation as a failure.

This weekend....the management team over Kassel-Calden Airport made a decision.....to help ID the airport in a better light.  They've renamed it....Kassel International Airport.

Yeah....somehow, they are convinced this will help in getting business.  The big sign out on the front of the airport will be requiring a change.....as well a couple of approach signs to the airport.  I'd take a few guess that 200,000 Euro will be required to make the structural changes.

Improving business?  No....I would doubt that.

If you are passing up from Frankfurt and heading north.....it's worth the effort to stop off and spend twenty minutes browsing the two gate airport in the middle of a farming area.....all paid for by the German tax-payer.

Sunday, January 18, 2015

More Fake Cops in Wiesbaden

If you've read the essays over the past year, I've noted several occasions where we had fake cops show up and shake-down some 'guest' in Wiesbaden.  Well....Thursday afternoon of last week....another episode.  Late in the day, near the up-scale hotel district of Wiesbaden.....a couple from Oman were approached by two guys in black leather and pretending to be cops.  The local news says they were robbed of a thousand Euro.

I'd say since spring of last year....it's happen at least ten times.    Cops can't do much to hinder them apparently.

Critical Thinking Over Cults

For over two decades, I've had a curious interest in cults.  If you look around the US, Europe, Asia and the world.....almost weekly, there's some cult story....some deaths associated with a cult....and people who comment on how they escaped from a cult.  It's a regular thing now.

A month ago, I came across this odd piece of history....revolving around Belgium.  You see, back in the mid-1990s....Belgium came to grasp that they had a festering problem with cults.  The authorities....the leadership of country....wanted to understand it completely.  So they had a commission go out and build up a 670-page document on cults (published 28 Apr 1997).  The group listed out 189 cults that were up and running in some fashion.

Now, you go and read over the 189 groups and realize that some are mainstream groups that you wouldn't normally label as a cult....like the Amish or the Mormons.  So, I sat down and did critical thinking....this involves facts, not opinions.

The commission that the Belgium government formed sat there and defined cults.  They didn't published the defining causes, but then you have to have characteristics to be a cult.  For example, you need authoritative leadership, exclusive tendencies, and the desire to feel isolated.  No cult exists without these.  I've yet to find a single cult that appreciates critical thinking....all cults tend to frown on such intellectual processes.  I've also found that virtually every single cult that I've come across....has this odd thing about pushing people out of the cult who have questioned it or suggest replacing some of the rules of the cult.

So, after a fair amount of critical thinking....I've come to my list of ten requirements for a cult to exist.  There might be more requirements, but I've trimmed this to ten points for simplicity.

One.  A defining document as inspiration.  Someone, perhaps the creator of the cult/religion....has written a source document that drives the agenda, the purpose, and the inspiration.  They might start the source document at the very beginning of the cult process, or later as they drive for more members....but in the end....every single cult needs something written down and used as the basis for 'rules' or 'stories' of the cult.

Two. Cults need enthusiasm and commitment to the leader of the organization.  Oddly, the guy might be alive or dead.....this angle doesn't matter.  You have to cite this individual, in quotes or verses, and do so with great appreciation of his purpose in life.  The perfectness nature of the leader will be a repeating process....over and over.  The perfect leader has never made a mistake, nor can he been disciplined by anyone for any issue.

Three.  The cult's leadership is never accountable to any government, any law, or people. Accountability is something that is not ever a problem.  It's impossible to find any cult that cites governmental laws, constitutions, privacy laws, or human rights....as part of their existence.  In most every single case, when required....they leave one land that is hostile, to find another that will simply accept their not-accountability requirement.  The laws of the land can forbid murder, mayhem, or assault....but it'll be sat to the side because of the leadership characteristics.

Four.  Guilt and shame are always a tool of a cult and used to influence it's members or ensure their participation in the craft of the cult.  Guilt ensures compliance.  Shame ensure peer pressure within the group.  To arrange for weekly meetings, or even

Five.  Questions, skeptics, and doubt are forbidden (always, you can't find a cult without this behavior).  You revert back to guilt and shame as the tools to combat this ill behavior.  You can also revert back to lack of accountability.....if requiring the death of the skeptic.....to reinforce behavior control over membership.

Six.  Your lifestyle and living companions are determined by the cult.  Rules or understandings will be developed by every single cult to ensure you hang out with the 'right' people and avoid the 'wrong' people.  Your clothing choices, hairstyles, abstinence to alcohol or tobacco, or life-partner will be determined by the cult.  Again, you can't find any cult that always free living styles.  The more rules over lifestyle....the more control of the membership.  Skeptics of a lifestyle?  You get peer pressure or shame put upon you.

Seven.  Cults consist of elite members.  Non-members are not elite.  One gets the favors of the cult end-result (whatever is promised), and the non-members get the worst of the worst as they pass on.  You can't exist as a cult, without some elite status granted to membership.  Anything can be promised as an end-result....thus making your end seem worthy in the eyes of the cult.

Eight.  Time always matters to a cult....the more they can make a member consume in favor of the cult's mission....the more you are induced to participate and believe in the cult.  If they can drag you off to twenty-eight prayer sessions a week.....it consumes your time and makes you a willing participant.  If they can mandate you do seven days of intensive training once a year for some privilege within the cult.....it helps to motivate you to be a better member.  You can't find a single cult where they don't manipulate or induce time as part of the gimmick.

Nine.  Using sessions at the cult to change behavior or establish an altering experience as a regular experience....thus getting routine in place and behavior repeated as often as possible.  Chants work in this case.  Meditating helps to establish a repeated behavior.  It's like basketball players who get pumped up prior to a game, you need a mass of people thinking and reacting in the same fashion.

Ten.  Mystic situations, mystic figures, mystic rituals, mystic chants.....are absolute requirements of every single cult in existence.  Figure X is as good as Superman.  Figure Y is as good as Captain America.  Miracles, return-from-the dead episodes, talks with invisible beings, participation of angel-like creatures, demons, and magical words....are all part of the gimmick.

Bottom line?  Society ought to be wiser and more skeptical of things introduced to them.  Without open minds and questions....we are inviting danger into our lives and cultures.

Sixty Canal Victims?

Manchester, UK.....is a city in the central region of England, on the western side of the isle.  With a population of half-a-million....it's an industrialized city with a lot of different cultures, characters, and drama.

This week, the newspapers finally picked up on a story which has kinda sat there because cops didn't want to make it into a dramatic worry.  You see....over the past couple of years....they've pulled sixty dead guys out of the canal that runs through the middle of Manchester, near the bar and party district.

If you lived in Nashville, or St Louis, and had sixty dead guys pulled out over a five-year period from the local canal or river.....someone would say something.

The general story by the authorities?  Well, they tried to say it this way....there's lots of bars along the canal and it's possible that every single one of the guys (no women) just got drunk, and fell into the water....never yelling for help.  The fact that goes hand in hand with this is that the bulk of the dead (at least fifty of them) have been found days and weeks later, and the body is in no condition to determine much of anything except the guy is dead.

The gut feeling?  I've read through four Brit newspapers and suspect there's some guy or gal who has escorted the poor drunk guy to some point, and pushes them into the canal. The victim is half-drunk and able to save himself, and it takes less than a minute to drown. A gay connection?  Well, there's nothing to suggest this.

The cops?  Nothing really says much in the papers that the cops are putting much effort into this.  Maybe they don't want to admit their status or their gut-feeling.  Maybe it's just that there's so much crime in Manchester that they prioritize and do the best they can.

Explaining the Valley-People of Dresden Comment

I often read through various German publications.....of which Focus is one of the better ones.

Today, they had a short article on the Pegida protests (from Dresden), and the comments of a German history professor (Heinrich August Winkler).

The professor?  He tends to write over history, politics, old DDR, and favorite political players of the SPD.  Yeah, the professor is a member of the SPD.....so he is kind of political in nature.  If you drew up a list of 'who's who' in Germany history professors....Winkler would be in the top ten.  He's done respected works on labor efforts in the Weimar Republic (the pre-Nazi government of Germany) and the rebuilding years after WW II.

The professor sat down and reviewed Pegida and it's demonstrations.  His suggest for the cause of the protest marches?  Lack of western TV in the old days of the DDR.

Yeah....lack of TV.  I know....it sounds pretty hokey when you first hear it....so you have to sit there and analyze the situation as he sees it.

From the professors suggestion....the folks in Dresden didn't get western TV until 1989 (when the wall went down).  These poor valley-people were in a part of German which was unable to get reception of West German TV from either Berlin or West German borders....because of the location of Dresden and mountains around it.

I'd basically summarize his concept this way.....if they had just received West German TV, gotten the proper amount of orientation, game-shows, cowboy westerns from the US, Kojack, detective-murder shows, comedy and safari documentaries....the Dresden folks would be thinking and logically come to the conclusions that the professor has come to and grasped.  Then Pediga would not exist today.

I'm into critical thinking.  This means you try to use all facts at your disposal.  So I sat and pondered about the professors comments.

Yeah, Dresden is in this bowl area and would not have been able to get German TV signal....but they would have gotten plenty (tons) of radio signals....thus getting AM radio.  Toss in Radio Free Europe, which freely operated in West Germany and was on the air for twenty-four hours a day.....broadcasting across to all Soviet states in Europe.....all you needed was a radio.

Yeah, having access to western TV does achieve some things.  But I can look across at all the areas of DDR that exist today, seeing a fair number of dimwits and idiots, and can't logically associate some upswing or positive attributes to West German TV.

Yeah, the old guys who stand around as retirees now....who ran West German TV knew their audience.  But then you ask yourself....the bulk of the shows are documentary pieces over animals, geography, and culture.  The top shows prior to 1989?  Mostly murder-mystery pieces, sprinkled with romance novels, and comedies.  Material that would challenge a culture, motivate people to become inspired, bring tolerance into society, and make people smart?  It's pretty hard to tie this type of thinking from the actual evidence at hand. Maybe that two or three hours on Sunday with political chat forums did something to those who sat in a Communist country.....but frankly.....a lot of West Germans skipped those shows because of the boredom....so there weren't big thrills or education invoked.

The professor goes onto label Pegida as anti-intellectual, anti-tolerance, anti-liberal, anti-western.....and that the gimmick of movement for Pegida is slogans.  Simple slogans sell.  On that part, he might be correct. The rest?  Questionable.

There's at least eight news groups or newspapers that have utilized the professor's comments for articles in today's news (Sunday).  It does kind of fill space, and give the reader a brief moment of explanation on why Dresden is different....although the logic is lacking on facts and awful weak on a connection.

Society and culture....saved by TV?  It's a radical thought process.  You'd have to assume that people found the networks carrying something worth watching.  If you went to ask a West German about the great choices on TV prior to mid-1980s....they'd mostly laugh.  It was mostly entertainment and quiz shows.  If one can make some claim that entertainment and quiz shows can carry society forward and onto a better life.....I'd give the humble view that they are stretching it a bit.

So, if you catch some mention of the 'valley-people' of Dresden.....it's basically a connection to the old DDR, and how they lacked western TV.  And how Pegida reacts to this?  They'd likely label the professor as part of the problem......the 'mountain-people' who seem to know everything better because they live on the mountain.

Saturday, January 17, 2015

The Lost Car Episode

This was a story from the local area (Wiesbaden) from this past week.  Cops came to report it.....actually concluding it, in an amusing way.

Two years ago (2012, toward the end of the year)....some eighty-year-old German gal had driven her Toyota vehicle over to a regional shopping area, and come out to find it gone.  She reported it.  Cops came....wrote up the report....documenting the location and tag number.

This past week, a non-cop patrol (yet to be explained), was looking over vehicles in a local parking lot, and here was the old gal's car.

I came to note the area and did a map search.  Where she'd gone was a shopping area where there are three parking lots to an open storefront area, with maybe six different stores.  What she'd done was go into one parking lot....probably shop at two or three shops and simply get mixed up over where she'd parked the car (probably another parking lot over).  These aren't big parking lots....maybe sixty to a hundred spots in each.

You would think that the cops would have driven her around, but they simply accepted  the story....wrote the report....and ended this by taking the old gal home.

So they tried to call the old gal up with the good news, and discovered.....she's been dead for at least a year.  Relatives hold the old key and they put the relatives onto the car.  No one said much about the insurance company paying off the old lady, or if she had that type of coverage.

Bad memory?   Yeah.  We had an episode about six months ago where some couple left home and were going shopping within thirty-odd miles.....they got turned around and ended up twelve hours later in some area about three-hundred miles away.  We have these episodes like this.....where older German drivers probably ought to be tested yearly, but no one wants to make it a real political chat topic.

A Radical German Intervention Program for Radicals?

This week, our local German regional public-run TV network (HR)....did up a report over a curious topic....radical Islam, but with a twist.

Some folks in Frankfurt sat down and reviewed issues which they might be able to influence to a different outcome.  The organization ended up with the name VPN (Violence Prevention Network). Their chief target? Radical Muslims.

Naturally, you'd look at this and question how exactly they'd function.

What we can say, based on the reporting by HR is that they've been up for roughly a hundred days, and had around fifty to sixty German-Islamic families call in to note their kids....their children....their teenagers....were being seduced in some way by friends or radical associates.  The fear by the family was that the son or daughter was going to run off to Syria and commit themselves to jihad.  The Islamic family....simply didn't desire for this to happen.

This one admission carries a fair amount of weight.  What it says is that a lot of Muslims simply don't buy into the radical side, and have gotten themselves into the western side of Islam or simply being identified to the religion but non-practicing.  And they really don't want their kids jerked around, lied to, or killed in the name of some religious practice.

The VPN folks aren't funded or manned to a huge extent....so the best they could do is handle around twenty-five of the cases. They note that there are face-to-face meetings....social media talk.....and efforts to bring focus to the kid's life and change their motivation.

The odd thing in this story is the triggers which bring kids to think radical Islam: marginal education, one simple view of perceiving things, no future, and a missing father figure.

It's a curious group of triggers, because it's the same things that you'd see in a cult-like situation.  Cults like a us-versus-them situation.  Cults prefer a special status for it's leader or creator.  Cults and their leadership are not responsible to any country or government or law.  Cults like to use excessive strategies and unquestioning commitment to it's cause/leaders/purpose in life.  Cults insist that skepticism and resistance be discouraged, and if required.....severely punished (to include death usually).  Cults practice mind-altering practices, from chants to mediation to help suppress hesitation about the cult.  Cults like to mange your lifestyle....telling you the practices acceptable and those unacceptable.  Cults like to claim they are elite and for a special crowd, while the unbelievers are not in the elite club or special.  Cults like to manipulate shame and stigma to ensure their membership follows the rules.

Sound familiar?

Statistics for the VPN success story?  This is the part of the story which can't be told in any detail because it's been barely a hundred days of effort, and only affecting one small group.  It's not a Hessen-wide program....it's just being played out in Frankfurt....to a limited audience.

You can stand there and look over this program....basically an intervention program, like you'd do for an alcoholic, a drug-user, or some cult-member.  The family knows the direction that the kid is going into, and has decided that they don't want the end-result.  So an intervention occurs.  The counselor talks to the kid....shows a world with more than black-and-white....demonstrates options.....focuses on free-thinking.....and puts the kid onto some path with more educational possibilities.

A radical approach on radicals?  Maybe.  But maybe this was the right way to view the problem in the first place.  We didn't have intervention existing 1,400 years ago....nor did we have the ability to recognize the attributes of a cult-like mentality that might hijack a person's life and lead them on a trail to death or misery.

A Mini Banking Crisis Affecting German Cities

This week.....the Swiss National Bank made a decision, without much notice.  They had....for roughly four years.....set up a stationary rate of the Swiss Franc to the Euro.  If you watch the business news.....there are dozens of reasons given for the action.  But the key reason that most will simply say is that....if they hadn't reacted this way to stabilize it....the rate would have increased against the Euro.  Because of the dramatic fashion that people were dragging money into Swtizerland for investment purposes and holding reasons.....stability outranked a floating scale.

This had serious impact with a number of German communities, for an odd reason.  A week ago....you could have used one Euro to buy 1.20 Swiss Francs.  Today?  That one Euro will buy roughly .97 Swiss Franc.  Yeah....roughly a .25 cent drop in cost.

For Germany?  Well, it's a curious thing.  A lot of German communities need credit....cash....to operate on a weekly and monthly basis.  Swiss banks have always been popular because of their stability and long-term projection.  From ARD business news.....I noticed that they listed approximately twenty-nine German cities that had loans with Swiss banks.

Whatever they owed a week ago....went up approximately twenty-percent in scale.  ARD says that the 2013 debt for the cities involved was just under two billion Euro.  If they were still at that point, you'd figure the debt would be 2.4 billion Euro because of the rate change.

How does a city find extra "loot" to cover their loans now (more costly to pay back)?  You basically have to cut services or find new ways to tax the residents.  More fines, more property tax episodes, forcing people to pay more on their street renovation, or cut back on city employees.

The end of the Swiss bank loan business to German cities?  I would imagine that a review will occur, and they will ease themselves out.....trying to find other banking institutions that revolve only around the Euro.

Private German individuals with Swiss bank loans?  So far, the news folks haven't found anyone weeping about it.  If there were some folks.....it'd be a tough-luck episode because you'd have monthly payments that went up by a significant amount and won't be able to a twenty-percent cost increase for a long period of time.

Was the four-year period of stalling rate increases a smart idea?  It's hard to say.  The Swiss National Bank was looking out for the Franc and for it's investors.  Maybe they should have limited the stall for just six months, and then allowed a floating trend to occur.  But, it's history now.  And twenty-nine German mayors are now sitting there.....trying to find cash to cover next month's loan payment back to the bank, and trying hard to find German banks to offer an exceptional deal for them to ease out of their Swiss loan.

Friday, January 16, 2015

Two Little Bits From the Raids of Yesterday

During the late part of yesterday....cops in Belgium, France and Germany exercised some  search warrants.  On one of the raids.....two radical Islamic figures pulled guns....and a gunfight erupted.  Both guys are dead....Belgium cops safe.

From today's news, you can take two small tidbits from the Belgium news....which probably won't get onto CNN, or into the German press.

Tidbit One: Fake police uniforms were reported from one of the raids.  Belgium cops won't say much except there at least one fake police uniform.  This ought to scare an awful lot of political figures because it creates dozens of scenarios where people might sitting in a pub, when cops enter and start shooting.  Or you might have cops enter a theater/kino, and start shooting.  Oddly, it's one of those tactics from the ISIS guerrilla war and events in the Middle East.

Tidbit Two: There's some evidence that this secret cell of jihadists wanted to capture a significant European character (a political figure, a journalist, someone with a name and identification to the public), and behead them (for public fear).  No names....no countries given....just that the topic came up in the investigation so far.

Both of these little items would normally cause silly Europeans to rattle off a list of fears and start to question political authorities about their strategy and future plans.  As long as people were kidnapped in the Middle East and beheaded there....Europeans just viewed it with disgust....spoke a few negative comments....and did mostly nothing.  If some event were to occur in Bavaria, or Amsterdam, or Berlin....the public perception would change overnight.

The question here....which I think will start to ponder...is it safe?  And the answer might not be the same that you heard yesterday or last week.


A Wolf in the Woods Story

If you go over to the Hessen Museum in Darmstadt.....there's an interesting marker in one of the display areas.

Around one-hundred-and-fifty years ago....here, in the state of Hessen....some local hunter shot the last wolf in the state.  I kinda doubt that the guy knew the implications at the moment, and it might have taken twenty years for folks to say in agreement....yep, that hunter bagged the last one.

Anyway....folks got around to making up a marker....a memorial of sorts....noting that the last wolf in this area of Germany (Hessen) was gone. For decades, the marker was noted and seen by locals.

At some point....probably in the 1990s.....they moved the marker over to the Hessen Museum, as a historical piece.  Next to it....is a stuffed wolf to demonstrate the whole story.

Up until 2008....this marker held to the historical part of the story.  At some point though....in 2008....locals determined that another wolf had entered Hessen.  It might have wondered over from Poland, or made it's way from as far away as Russia......you just don't know.  Presently, some folks think there's at least a couple of wolves now in the region.  Naturally, this gets public TV time as journalists try to harp on the fact that wolves DON'T attack people.  At least once or twice a year....some documentary will occur on our region HR network and harp on this fact to ensure no one shoots the remaining wolves.

It's just one of those 1,000-odd things about living in Hessen.....you might have to deal with a wolf.

The Three Numbers You Don't Know

In recent weeks, with the anti-immigration, anti-Muslim talk, and Pegida going on......a person might sit back here in Germany and ponder on a number of things.  There are three numbers....which the public might like to know, which would focus things a bit differently.....IF they were known.

One.  This past week, I read an essay that someone had written....classifying Muslims.  It was actually a very thoughtful and logical piece.  In logical sequence....there are actually three categories of Islam membership.

There's the group which have arrived in some western land, taken up art, music, beer, non-Muslim friends, lifestyles (being gay), adopted a pet, and are very happy.  They will call themselves a Muslim, just in name only....but the truth is....they don't utter prayers unless the family visits or some relative drags them along.  From the top hundred standard rules of being a Muslim.....they probably violate over ninety of the rules.  For these people, it's a label....that's all.

The second group are more devoted members.  They live in a Muslim community.....attend prayers with associates....talk gossip or BS within the group.....and live somewhat happy lives.  The only non-Muslim friends are those at work.  They try to keep discipline within the family and avoid being seen in any type of light as provoking the Quran rules.  Violent tendencies?  No....none.

The third group.....are the folks will follow the Quran to the absolute word of understanding, and live a frustrated life.  They are mostly angry toward any non-Islamic individual.  They seek to blame non-Muslims for their fate in life.  The religion is more than a label or a religion....it's a political machine and should be used to only build it larger.  Violence is very acceptable within this group....against anyone who needs it.

Here's the thing....no poll has ever been done in Germany to split this up and say how many exist in each group.  Even if you tried....you'd be stopped by someone because it'd put way too worry onto the minds of public leaders.  If the first two groups (the non-threat folks) only made up ninety percent of those around you.....would it bother you that ten percent of the overall group were a potential threat?  Would you accept that?  Would you hope that they could be reformed, as some indicate?

Two.  Folks talk about German acceptance or non-acceptance.  A couple of polls came out at the end of 2014....indicating a vast majority (somewhere in the sixty-percent range) were agreeable with the way things are being held down by the government, and only a thirty-to-forty percentage of people saying the immigration/Muslim issues were significant.

How reliable were the polls?  You'd generally give fair grades to polls in Germany.....they usually aren't "faked" or use bad data.  But on the other hand....Germans are reactive to changes. If a Paris-like incident occurred, and a forum occurred with heavy commenting slamming immigration or Muslims.....you could accomplish the same poll and find suddenly sixty percent of the nation are frustrated and want significant changes.

The real numbers on immigration and anti-Muslim situations?  You don't know.

Three.  When the end of 2017 comes around, and if enough events occurred....causing people to view the AfD party more favorably....what effect would it trigger in the election results?

There's this magic number if you play with the board....where putting a government together is practically impossible.  Let's say that AfD somehow found the magic element and got thirty-eight percent of the nation vote, and the CDU/CSU folks (without Chancellor Merkel) only put up twenty-two percent.  Then you throw in a weak SPD with eighteen percent, the Greens with seven percent, and the Linke Party with fifteen percent.

Would any party be willing to link up and partner with the AfD?  No.  If the CDU/CSU came up within the rules and given a chance as the number two party....could they arrange some partnership with the SPD and Linke Party?  No.  It'd be a an election with no end.

Just how big a deal with immigration, Pegida and the Islamic trend is up right now?  The numbers are unknown.

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Frankfurt Airport Update

The FRAPORT (Frankfurt Airport management) folks did the numbers for 2014, and they ended the year with 59.6 million passengers.  That's a two-and-a-half percent rise over the previous year.  And you have to stir this into the big picture....if the strikes hadn't occurred and the bad snow episodes for a day or two in late December....they probably would have edged it and gone onto sixty million passengers.

When you review airports worldwide....Atlanta and Beijing are the only two with sixty-plus million passengers....so it puts Frankfurt into a particular category.  It also forces the planners to emphasize the necessity for the third terminal....something that is becoming a hostile topic for political players in Hessen.

According to the HR folks (our regional TV network)....we are within an easy ten-year period where the airport will be tapped out at maximum capacity.  This is now driving the whole discussion over expansion....which is met with frustration of various groups trying to control this situation.

The one topic which gets brought up is the shut-down at night at the airport.....to sooth the property owners around the airport.  It's a six-hour period with no take-offs or landings.

An Example of a Luengenpresse Episode

The term in German...."luegenpresse".....got pulled out as word of the year in Germany, mostly because some Germans have begun to question the factual nature of reported stories and the various slanted way that stories are told.

This week, I noted a luegenpresse item.

Various communities in Germany are being pressed to find homes, apartments, or structures that can be quickly adapted for use for refugees and immigrants.  Frankly, they don't want to go out and spend a vast amount of funding on requirements like this.  The communities have not been paid back by the state or federal government on a Euro-to-Euro scale.  So most are burning up some funding that would have been used on street or bridge renovation.

Around two or three weeks ago....this story started out in the German press....Schwerte is this town nearby Buchenwald....the old Nazi concentration camp of WW II.  It's up in northwest Germany....near Dortmund.

Schwerte was told to prep up and get some facility (of living standards) for approximately twenty asylum seekers.  There's not a lot of choices.  So they eventually settled on what was an old barracks building in the area.  The location?  Well, it gets to being interesting.  It was an old railway repair compound, which had some association with the German Army in WW II and probably had some concentration workers in the local buildings.  It's right next to the concentration camp...if you were curious.

The local guy in charge of the city department who'd handle excess property reviewed the whole thing prior to the announcement.  It'd been used for various purposes, BUT never for concentration camp prisoners.  At some point after the war, it was used as a hospital building for soldiers wounded.  Later, it was used as a storage building.  And for a decade or two....with significant renovation....it was used as a kindergarten in the local area.

These are all facts.

So, what did you get from the luengenpresse?  The story is slanted to such a degree....that it was a Nazi concentration camp building, and it's horrible that you'd suggest that folks should stay in such a building when they are in the refugee or immigrant status.  Most newspapers carried the luengenpresse statements....heavily emphasizing the terrible thing that the town planners had done.

Frankly, all of the efforts required by towns and states....to handle refugees and immigrants (figure 150,000 a year on average now showing up)....consume man-hours and budgets.  These aren't planned and you have to sit there and make up some sudden budget requirement that didn't exist before.  Finding excess buildings in livable condition in your local area?  You could announce yourself as some state director of asylum folks and go up to some mayor....demanding they find a sixty-person building with heat, water, and suitable for living.  In simple terms, it's a burden and consumes some planning efforts.

What happens in this case?  The political party that runs business in the town has suffered a harsh blow.  This will be talked about and used to condemn the folks involved.  All, in the name of a luengenpresse agenda.

Forty Punks Who Aren't French

There was an odd episode yesterday that came out of France....related to the 'Charlie Hebdo' event.  The French education ministry decided that it was appropriate to take a moment out of the day on Monday, and have a moment of silence.

You could say that it was a significant event, with a large segment of French society saddened by violence and deaths.  It was appropriate.

Oddly....this moment of silence just didn't go off well.  Late yesterday, the education minister (Najat Vallaud-Belkacem)....reported to Parliament that at least two hundred cases occurred where the moment of silence was interrupted or resisted.  In a handful of cases....it wasn't just a verbal altercation or argument that brewed up....it was actual physical violence.

The education minister reports that these episodes that demonstrated violence....ended up with the cops being called, and there are approximately forty young individuals being investigated for aiding a terrorist organization.  For that.....you usually get jail time.  Ages of the 'punks' involved?  Not available.....at least not yet.

What does this say?  I would be humble and note this.  There are French people in France.....who are not French.  They will never be French.  And their chief belief is that France will eventually dissolve into something else which makes it Islamic in nature.

Up until the past week, I would have said that France was on automatic, and probably not going to do anything to hinder this progression of France being non-existent....whether it took a hundred years or a thousand years....they would have just let it happen.  I think the murders woke France up.  There's questions now.  Who is French and who isn't....is being discussed.

The forty kids being checked out for physical violence for the minute of silence?  They might want to review their options....staying in France or leaving for a 'plan b' country.  Life might not be as good as it was in France.