Saturday, March 4, 2017

My Caledonia Scenario

This week, there's talk of a new Scottish independence separate from the UK.  The last vote.....2014....was an 11-point win by the 'no' vote....meaning to stay.  Because of BREXIT....some Scottish folks think it'd be better to separate and stay within the EU.

I've done a fair amount of research over the topic and have come to one odd conclusion.

While it is likely that a vote will occur, and it might shift to a 5-to-10 point win to exit the stay within the EU, I'm also of the mind that one particularly strong area....the south end of Scotland which has roughly 17 councils or districts....might say "hold on" and ask for a exit vote from Scotland itself.

Their interest?  I sat and looked at voting data from those 17 districts....overwhelmingly for staying within the UK in 2014.  Some got 60-percent to stay within the UK.....some got 70-percent.

Those 17 districts or councils?  They make up approximately one-third of Scotland.  The principal cities?  Edinburgh and Dumfries.

My scenario?  Less than twenty-four hours after a 'yes' vote has occurred on the referendum.....those political folks of the 17 councils would have a meeting and write up a simple yes/no ballot and ask to leave Scotland.

It'd be a shocker and most of the news media would be shaking their heads because they really didn't expect that.

They would want to exit as one single entity and emerge as one single be named Caledonia, and immediately request to be part of the UK.

The name Caledonia?  It's a historical thing.  The Caledonians were a tribal unit from 2,000 years ago in the region and the name hints of 'tough' nature.  The Caledonians were mostly known for lack of gentle ways.....they weren't the people you went looking for in the midst of some evening stroll.

The effect on the remaining Scotland exit?  It diminishes their population from the present 5.3 million to roughly 4 million.  It doesn't screw up the exit from the UK or make for problems.  It might lessen the economic picture of a mini-Scotland compared to present picture.

So prepare for an odd 2017 adventure.  Caledonia might be on your mind.

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