I often sit and read through stories that have statistical data included....while the story goes in one direction....I end coming to a different analysis.
This week, some folks chatted about Malmo, Sweden and the population. Malmo has been in the news lately.....most for negative reasons.
Five years ago, the city of Malmo (with no argument from anyone) was at 300,000 residents. It's a hefty number for an industrialized city. In the whole of Sweden....there are 9.6 million residents. I should note....this is Malmo-city....NOT the region around Malmo.
So in the last year, just about everyone is agreed upon the newest number of residents in Malmo....320,000. It's up eight-percent approximately. Birth-rate thing? No. People moving in....mostly from outside of the country. Yeah....immigrants.
Just in the last year, almost six-thousand new folks arrived in Malmo.
There's this odd number that you notice from the city government, and they tried to skip over the topic. Over this five-year period....nearly 16,000 of Malmo's residents packed up and moved outside of the city-limits....but stayed in the outer-circle of the city.
That means that they kept their jobs....but they didn't care to leave the region. They picked out smaller towns along the expressway, or the railway line....and stayed far enough out that the decay rate of Malmo doesn't affect them.
These are people who know that urbanization isn't working in Malmo....that crime has become a noticeable thing....drugs are part of the local culture now....and they can't influence politicians enough to fix anything. So, keep the job and just move out of the shadow of Malmo.
It's a trend I noticed in my home state of Alabama with Birmingham. Up until the 1960s....the city had a decent reputation, and then went through a period of decay. There might be a third of the city of Birmingham which is still on the positive side today, and has business operations booming. Most folks have left not only the city of Birmingham, but the county around it. They drive forty to sixty miles and just use the city for employment. No one does polls but I suspect that if you asked everyone working in Birmingham who makes $50,000 a year or more....it's like 98-percent who reside outside of the city now.
Malmo moves in the same direction. It may take twenty years, but eventually....everyone who makes 50,000 Euro or more within Malmo.....will reside outside of the city itself. There might be some city districts with enhanced cop protection noticed, but the city of Malmo is fighting urbanization....and losing.
Based on the method of taxation....it's not a big deal for Malmo because they will get their cut from the nation-state based on population. So if the bulk of Malmo is making poverty-type income....it doesn't matter because the middle-class (residing an hour away) are contributing into the same pot of money.
It is a vicious circle. Malmo can't escape from urbanization or it's problems. Nor can Malmo fix or resolve this trend. In another five years....you can expect another sixteen to twenty thousand working-class people to exit the city, and neighborhood decay to take another step or two.