Wednesday, March 8, 2017

The German National Election, March Observations

We are approximately six months away from the German national election.  There are a number of factors demonstrated or in play at this moment.

1.  Saarland state election.  On the 26th of March, will be the state election of Saarland.  Right now, polls are showing a hefty vote trend toward the CDU.  The AfD folks will be lucky to get 7-percent of the vote.  The SPD folks will get around 30-to-32 percent of the vote to finish second.  In this race, the CDU and SPD combined will reach 70-percent which is a counter-trend to national politics where they both get closer to 50-percent combined.

2.  The Solidarity Tax.  It should be one of the top five topics of this election.  It's supposed to end in 2019, and virtually every single political party wants it to continue....while the general public wants it to end.  You will notice if you follow the news....NO one talks about, period.  The assumption is that it'll be rigged to continue on because the public won't grasp the handling of this matter.

3.  Schlesweg-Holstein state election.  Set for 7 May.  Presently, the CDU is rated to win although the SPD has been gaining in numbers.

4.  NRW state election. There is a lot of discontent among voters in the state....some has to do with bad economics, and lack of jobs.  Some has to do with large immigration base.  Presently, the SPD is given around 35-percent on polling.

5.  Two major issues likely will continue to develop and become major summer problems: Turkey and Greece.  In the case of Greece....they need another loan to pay off debt payments, and there are questions over the inability of Greece to get ahead of these financial issue.  A lot of Germans don't want more money tossed at the Greeks.  In the case of Turkey....Erdogan has become a neighbor that they'd rather not have to deal with.....but he's on nightly TV.  Neither case will be resolved in any degree before the national election.  In the other Turkey-connected issue.....Erdogan might decide to dump the immigration deal with the EU and let a million-plus migrants head off to Greece, and onto Germany.  Germany's fragile deal is a major problem.

6.  Waiting on the next terror attack.  On any given day....some jihad-thug could attempt another Christmas attack like the one in Berlin, and the Merkel coalition government would demonstrate itself as unable to handle the problem.

7.  "Mega" Schulz (the new SPD candidate) has yet to appear in some debate forum and have the immigration issue thrust toward him.  He has been pro-migration/immigration throughout his entire EU period, so one doesn't expect his take on the issue to change.  Right now....the general public (at least 50-percent) aren't that thrilled over migration and the issues on the table.  The fact that at least three German states have taken positions not to force failed-visa migrants to leave leaving a bad taste in the mouths of some Germans.

8.  AfD stagnation.  At present, one might say that the AfD frustration vote has hit maximum potential.  Nationally, they are sitting at roughly 12-percent.  The one-issue party?  That is part of the issue with AfD.

9.  The effect of the French election.  I hate to call it a tidal-wave, but a great deal of emphasis on the German election will come out of this French epic adventure.  Fillon is now out more or less....there's virtually no way that he can get into the final two election.  Macron (the progressive guy) and Le Pen (National Front) are the likely final two.  I don't think either make the SPD or CDU that happy....but they'd prefer that Le Pen NOT win this accepting Macron and his extremely pro-immigration slant is part of this election.

10.  BREXIT and Trump.  Both are negative factors in this election, and the German news media hypes the negativity almost daily.

So you come to the general working class opinion of Germans.  Most will say they are tired of Merkel, and need some change (then "Mega" Schulz works for them).  Most will say they want economic stability and no new taxes (then "Mega" Schulz doesn't work for them).  Most will say that they don't feel safe....that crime and terrorism are the chief topics of this election.  Most will say that Berlin is disconnected and not able to provide real leadership for the country.  And most will say that they expect little to change with the September election....more of the same....just different faces.

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