Scotland has now set up a plan for a vote on independence....which the vote would occur between the fall of 2018 (18 months away) to spring of 2019 (two years away). This potential separation from the UK is driven mostly by the BREXIT deal.
Why such a long period away? No one says in some clear manner the need for a 18-month pause before this vote initiative.
I suspect (on my own part) that there are three basic reasons:
1. They want BREXIT to fall into place and be a negative thing (like the EU supporters have often suggested). This bitter pill of negativism would be easier to advertise and convince people of the reason why Scotland needs to return to the EU-flock.
2. They need at least six to eight months minimum.....to put together the advertising, the theme, the message, etc.....to make a positive out of exiting the UK.
3. 2019 is the next EU election, and they may want EU political folks talking about this in their campaign efforts.....to quickly bring Scotland in (not to linger out there for four years waiting on entry paperwork).
I discussed this about a month ago in that it might occur, and that a break-up of Scotland might also occur.
When you look at voting in the last exit-UK vote.....the dozen-odd districts to the south of Scotland voted very strong to stay in the UK. Those dozen-odd districts have a history and connection to the UK. So I think that this region, upon a success "YES" vote and the start of Scotland to exit....will ask for their own vote to exit Scotland, and form their own nation or state (Caledonia).
If Caledonia were to exit Scotland and re-join the UK....it would diminish Scotland to some degree, both in terms of economics and population.
Would London try to copy the idea and try to exit the UK as it's own state? Maybe. But the EU would start to worry now that other regions might try to isolate themselves from their state, and exit on their own as well. You can't have 200 entities or states making up the EU.
Invitation to a mess? Yeah, there's a lot of potential here for a bigger mess to occur.