German Economic Worry

I sat and reviewed German news last night from ARD (public TV, Channel One).  The newest BIG story told by ARD....about President Trump talking on a new levy for imported cars....which could be up to to 25 percent.  Naturally, the Germans are worried.

This centers on cars, trucks, and even parts.

The wording of the story is that the Commerce Department was directed to review an import tariff, and the Trump-question was.....do car imports represent 'national security threat'?  How long will such a review take?  If this were the Obama Administration.....I'd guess sixty to ninety days.  In this case, I can only guess sixty days or less. 

As for numbers?  The US brings in around 500,000 vehicles per year from Germany.  The US imports roughly 1.5-billion dollars worth of vehicles into Germany....although it's very unclear if these are purely cars, or a mix of various vehicles (to include buses, trucks, tractors, etc). 

The problem here is that the whole trade business talks....can only occur with the US and the EU at the table....NOT Germany.  Germany basically signed away their rights by the way that the EU was given certain powers.  This means virtually all members of the EU are given a chance to 'help' Germany, or 'screw' Germany. 

Part of this issue was some face-to-face meeting in the first couple of weeks of the Trump Administration, with Chancellor Merkel.  Trump wanted to talk trade, and Merkel begged off (avoiding any discussion at all) because the EU is the doorway to trade talks.  So, Trump pondered upon the trade business and realize that not all members of the EU are happy about Germany's strength over them.  His tactics are to avoid the Germans on trade, and make this an entire discussion by the EU itself.

Connecting back to the failed TTIP?  Well....that's the funny thing.  Since those talks failed (toward the fall of 2016), no one within the EU has been interested in restarting them.  So Trump has put an enormous amount of pressure on the EU folks.....TTIP more or less will have to restart.  From the German perspective....the last couple of months of TTIP in 2016 reached a miserable stage where various countries got into the details and voiced objections to the structure.  Bringing this back up today?  You could be talking about another two years of intense TTIP talk.

All of this would suggest some trade war to start and the one single EU country that could have the most to lose?  Germany.  And frankly, most of the other EU members would sit and be entertained over the 'stumble'.