Talk over the German Military

For over a year, President Trump has hyped this issue with NATO countries failing to reach the 2-percent level of GDP for their military hardware and personnel contribution.  A handful of countries are achieving....most aren't....including Germany.

Focus (the German news magazine) picked up the story today, and discusses this in length....it's worth a read.

What's going on here with the new coalition....is that SPD Finance Minister Olaf Scholz holds the purse strings and has hinted very strongly that there just won't be an increase on the German military budget.  To be honest, their budget is in terrible trouble because they will have to find 11-billion a year more.....for the EU contribution, to make up for BREXIT. In addition, the KITA business (childcare in Germany) is demanding more money.  And there is hype over the poverty situation and a public stance that the Hartz IV program has to grow.

Presently....38.5 billion Euro goes to the Bundeswehr.  There's already a budget built for 2019....going up to 41.5 billion Euro.  As the Finance Minister sees it....they are getting a raise.  But the Bundeswehr is in such dire straits....that three billion is probably a marginal solution to the ongoing crisis.

What'll happen here?  At some point, I think the German military will pick out one single asset from the military, and just push it into storage and admit that they can't logistically meet the needs with it.  Maybe it'll be a sub series....maybe a series of tank....maybe even aircraft. Serious criticism will start up from the SPD and opposition parties...suggesting that marginally keeping a program going, is better than no asset existing.

Meanwhile, I suspect that eventually....maybe into the summer of 2019....President Trump will view the new relationship with the UK (outside of the EU), and start to shut down bases in Germany....moving them partly to the UK, and to some degree into Poland.  It would be a fairly serious episode, and complicate matters.

As for the idea that this whole marginalization appearance might have been long-planned as to just to prevent the German military from ever deploying or being in some chaotic situation?  I've come to the belief that you can't have this many logistical problems....across so many assets, without intending for it to be planned this way. A decade ago, or two decades ago....they simply got into a mindset and put the right people in the position to ensure failure.

In a way, it's a bit amusing.  Forty-odd billion Euro a year....to run a marginalized military force.  You could spend twenty billion, and get the same result.