Various news outlets yesterday were discussing this new German Bundeswehr (Army) problem.....military pilots are packing up and leaving.....going to the commercial world. Chief complaint? Well....this gets into a fairly interesting topic.....down-time for aircraft and helicopters.
As a pilot, you have to be 'rated'....that means that you go through a certification process, then once reached....all you have to do is fly X-number of hours per quarter. In the past, these German pilots were easily meeting 160 to 180 hours. Now? With maintenance time sucking the life out of the assets? They are lucky to meet a 60 to 80 hour schedule. What happens if you fail to meet the quarterly number? Well....you start back at step-one, and have to get recertified.
Having worked around military pilots in my youth....once they arrived and got introduced to the unit, and got certified.....there was a sense of relief. They would do everything possible to ensure each guy didn't have to repeat the process. I can sense with the German pilots....they've probably repeated this recertification enough that it bothers them.
What does this mean for the military capability of Germany? Well....you got X-number of pilots who aren't qualified and are going through a recertification process. Then you have X-number of pilots who just say 'enough' and leave....giving you empty slots that you have to go out and recruit. Basically, they can't meet their mission requirements.
As you look across all of these platforms....tanks, aircraft, helicopters, subs, and ships.....all facing logistical problems and maintenance down-time....it's pretty safe to say that they can't meet any tasking that might occur.
To have this much of a wide landscape....you can't do this by accident. It would appear that somewhere in the past twenty years....they went with a lesser budget and a management style to ensure that they'd have a military on paper, but be totally unable to task or use that military. I don't necessarily blame Merkel....but it just seems like a number of political folks had a hand on this episode and ensured that they built a system of zero-value.
The cost to resolve all of this? They can't afford it....they even went and ensured that part of the scenario as well.
At some point, the NATO headquarters is going to ask questions, and the US might come to realize the dynamics at play here. I won't suggest the US will leave NATO....but it set up this final scenario where the US vacates Germany, and a minor exercise or two might be held to just show up and demonstrate some capability.
I admit, it's a crazy scenario....but it's impossible to have this size of maintenance issues....across almost every single asset in their inventory, unless you did it intentionally.
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