Cost and who pays. Yes, that's the simplicity and complexity of the diesel crisis facing Germany. ARD summed it up in a pretty decent article from last night.
First, what does a retrofit cost? The exact amount isn't quiet at a point where the manufacturing crowd can state for sure. From January....the Transport Ministry came to a ballpark figure of 3,000 Euro per car. This would have been the filter system for an older diesel (Euro five type).
With this figure, the thought by the experts is that it's not a huge price (when you consider the driving ban, the health hazard, and the termination of diesel).
So you take the fourteen million diesel cars, and multiply this (labor and parts) 3k Euro by it, and you come to 42-billion (more or less). I suspect the newer cars made in the past four years would have the numbers to avoid this mandated filter, and instead of fourteen million cars.....you might be talking about eight million cars or 24-billion Euro.
If the diesel car were over 15 years old? Well....the filter would cost as much as the car has in value....but that's just my humble opinion.
So you come to question two....who pays?
Some folks do believe that the government can force the car industry to pay for this. However, when you ask the same folks under which law it could be applied....they can't answer that. You then start to realize that a new law would have to be crafted out of thin air, and it would automatically be challenged in court. With the speed of German courts.....you could imagine two years to three years from start to finish.
Plan 'B'? No one says it in public but there's been some folks talking of an increased diesel tax (diesel is 15-cents cheaper than gas presently), and you'd make the owners pay for it themselves. It's a virtual guarantee whichever political party pushes on this....will be 'blasted' at the ballots on the next election. Hint: SPD.
The EU getting into middle of this and making it a more messy affair? There's a fifty percent chance or BETTER, that the EU will try to pass something that dooms the auto companies, and puts a number of things into jeopardy. Doing this a year ahead of the EU representative elections? Oh my....that would really interest the anti-EU political folks, and help change the dynamics of the EU after June of 2019.
If this were strictly a owner thing? I've sat and looked over the issue. If I owned such a car....I'd likely go and buy the 1,500-Euro natural gas kit and just convert my car over to natural gas. It'd help me make this decision if you offered three 500-Euro tax credits over a five-year period, which I could take when I needed it, and save on my taxes (making it my choice). Course, the gas-car crowd would be angry that I got a special deal, and it means someone else has to pay into the tax pot. Fairness? Well.....it's screwed up.
How big a topic is this in Germany? If you own a diesel car....it's now on your mind every single week, and frustrates the heck out of you. You have zero trade-in value on the car, and you might as well drive the car until it collapses. For the rest of German society.....it's way down on the list....maybe number fifty to one-hundred on your worry list.
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