It's not page one news, and I doubt if more than a hundred Germans are aware of it....but Iran's banking system is fairly near collapse.
Accusations of money-laundering? Go browse around. There are various stories occuring now. Turkey, UAE, Malta, Slovenia, Philippines, etc.
Back in 2016, Iran was rated as the highest and most-likely country engaged in money-laundering.
Over the past week, I've read several news pieces which lead onto the strength and current structure of Iranian banks. Most international analysts are predicting mergers to occur within Iran....in some effort to strengthen the banks remaining. The suggestion is that from the top thirty-to-forty banks in existing in Iran today....there might only be eight to ten by the end of 2018. But even then....no one is saying that the banks in this new structure are going toward a better rate of survival.
So this brings me to this odd scenario that few Europeans can imagine....a collapse of the economic sphere in Iran, and it'll directly affect the leadership of the Mullahs, and the anger of the general public. With the banks operating as they are....structurally unfit....there's only one single path ahead, failure of the banks.
My question is....will they fail in 2018, or into 2019? I'm more or less leaning toward a 2019 collapse.
What happens then? I think the military will step in....detain the Mullah authority, and reset the government. At that point, Trump will hold the cards to quickly put things back on track....establish a legit nuke deal....and probably shock some folks by not involving the EU in the treaty.
Just my humble guess, but generally....nothing good comes out of massive money-laundering, and that's the only path for Iran's banks at this point.
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