Money and the German Military

It's a page two story that has major implications.  ARD reported most of this.

For several months, the German Bundeswehr (the German military) has spoken to the logistics nightmare they are suffering because operationally....tanks, helicopters, aircraft, subs, and ships are operating at a level that you'd expect.  On top of that....the NATO recommended level to be spent by each nation (two-percent GDP) isn't being reached (it's presently at 1.2 percent, and the Bundeswehr was hoping to raise it to 1.5 percent).

Well....at some meeting in the last day or two....Finance Minister Scholz (SPD) stood up and said 'no'.....there will be no extra money pumped into the military budget.

What extra money that he has.....will go to the growth and expansion of the digital network.

The comment used?  I kinda liked the wording: "The trees do not grow unfortunately in the sky."

What happens now? 

Well....President Trump had hyped up the NATO funding issue, and made blunt talk at Merkel in their recent meeting.  I think the US will view this comment by the Finance Minister and move onto some plan 'B', which might eventually amount to US military assets removed from Germany, and probably moved into Poland and the UK (just my humble guess).

But this also puts extreme pressure on the German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen. I think she will review the options, and just start to dismantle some pieces of the military and say they can't competently run a full-strength military....so some things (maybe the subs.....maybe the ships) will be brought into port and just moth-balled. 

If you follow recent news....a number of the pilots within the Bundeswehr are angry because they can't get enough flight-time to stay active on their pilot license requirements.  This issue has pushed a small number of the pilots to exit and leave for commercial operations.

My view of timing?  The UK has to complete BREXIT by April of 2019 (unless something causes it to fail).  I suspect that the day after BREXIT....some Trump-team will arrive in the UK and two issues will be put on the table.  Trade talks will be one, but a restructure process for US assets in Germany will be laid out.  There's a list of forty-plus UK military installations on a closure list at present, and it would make sense for the US to seek use of a couple of these, and transfer military assets mostly into the UK, with perhaps some air unit moving into Poland.  I would even go to suggest that 50-percent of the move could be accomplished by the end of 2019. 

All of this setting a negative phase for the Merkel coalition?  Well.....yes.  I would suggest that 50-percent of German society aren't that hyped up over military operations, and aren't thrilled over cost situations.  Some might be embarrassed over shutting down certain elements of the military but they aren't going to lose sleep over the topic.  But hours will be put into public forums to talk over the Bundeswehr's problems, and when the US suggests the movement.....more hours of talk will occur then.

And the faster network talk (where they are going to put their money)?  Well....here's the thing.  If you go and rate countries over network speeds and infrastructure reaching a great portion of German society....you get dismal stories over Germany.  Germany never breaks into the top ten countries in the world on connection speed (South Korea and Switzerland dominate that list).  Back a decade ago, if you'd asked about priorities....the Merkel coalition just refused to make network speed a big deal.  They could have already accomplished this five to ten years ago.

So, it's all simmering there....a fairly big mess, and the SPD will help in a way.